Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 14 Jan 2019, 15:09

UFO Fever wrote:THAT BEING SAID, with the 4 cops reveal, it could make sense that no scum has claimed miller, especially if scum knew that there are unreliable cops in this game. The only way for scum to know that is if a cop is a rat. So, I'm still advocating a Shadow lynch to find out rat info. Since we all seem to have a general town vibe from Durga (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong there) I think that if Shadow flips town that will all but confirm to me that the cops have a rat.

I have a follow-up thought to this. ZZ has indicated that the cops assumed some of them were unreliable because sjg told them their results were not guaranteed to be accurate. I don't see anywhere that he mentions them considering the possibility of millers at that point.

Ergo, even if there is a rat in the Cop group, there's not necessarily a reason to think they would have pre-planned a miller fakeclaim, because they wouldn't have known it existed. Unless one of Durga or Shadow is actually also a cop, and actually a miller, and revealed that to them. But if not, then isn't the second miller claim the more suspect one? Would scum decide to fakeclaim miller without knowing if one exists?

I also am super interested in the fact that there was a fake Buffy claim in the Cop thread. And frustrated that we don't get to know who.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 14 Jan 2019, 16:01

Myloninja13 wrote:AhhhHHHHHHH I hate disappointing you guys but I missed out on doing stuff here AGAIN. But, I implore y'all that I'll catch up tomorrow for sure (I'm home alone :D ). And to have a safety precaution, if I *Don't* catch up tomorrow I'll replace out of this game so you guys can get someone who can actually be timely lol.

But watch out scummy scumz, tomorrow Mylo is putting on his big pants and solving the game and catching you all!

I don’t need you to solve the game, but I do need you to do some interacting with people and the game in general.

How about start with something relatively simple...read through shadows ISO, see what you think of her play, specifically what you think of her interactions with Durga and Chuck.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby UFO Fever » 14 Jan 2019, 16:13

kimpossible wrote:
UFO Fever wrote:THAT BEING SAID, with the 4 cops reveal, it could make sense that no scum has claimed miller, especially if scum knew that there are unreliable cops in this game. The only way for scum to know that is if a cop is a rat. So, I'm still advocating a Shadow lynch to find out rat info. Since we all seem to have a general town vibe from Durga (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong there) I think that if Shadow flips town that will all but confirm to me that the cops have a rat.

I have a follow-up thought to this. ZZ has indicated that the cops assumed some of them were unreliable because sjg told them their results were not guaranteed to be accurate. I don't see anywhere that he mentions them considering the possibility of millers at that point.

Ergo, even if there is a rat in the Cop group, there's not necessarily a reason to think they would have pre-planned a miller fakeclaim, because they wouldn't have known it existed. Unless one of Durga or Shadow is actually also a cop, and actually a miller, and revealed that to them. But if not, then isn't the second miller claim the more suspect one? Would scum decide to fakeclaim miller without knowing if one exists?

I also am super interested in the fact that there was a fake Buffy claim in the Cop thread. And frustrated that we don't get to know who.


But I assume all of our PMs said what our investigation results would be. In the literal opening post of Dune, ZZ said that the fact that investigation results were told to us in pm heavily implied that there were millers, so I can easily see town, scum, and cops all coming to that conclusion. I had that same assumption to start this game when I read my pm.

However, I think you have my points backwards? I'm saying that a rat would have told scum there's multiple cops that are no way all reliable, so scum could have been inclined to NOT claim miller because of that, since cop results can be disputed. I'm saying that if Shadow and Durga both flip town, I am betting my life, apartment, cats, dog, student loan debt, and the souls of at least 5 ancestors that there's a rat in the cophouse. That does not necessarily mean that if one of Shadow/Durga (or both!) flip scum then there's no rat.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby Zoomzip » 14 Jan 2019, 16:19

UpsideDownChuck wrote:Some buckets:

Villagers:
Me
Durga
Dwilt

Not ready to call them villas but also not likely to lynch:
ZZ
Kim
Nanook
Conq*

Haven't thought about:
Firestorm94
UFO

Candidates for lynching D1:
Mylo
Aginmadur
Shadowface

So it's shadow and then the two players with the fewest posts. The game is almost certainly not that easy, so I'll look at Firestorm and UFO and see where that takes me and then reevaluate my other buckets. Conq gets an asterisks because of his Buffy claim. Were it not for that I think he'd honestly be in the last bucket.


So... this is an interesting roster run, and I do like the "So it's shadow and then the two players with the fewest posts. The game is almost certainly not that easy" line as a check on your own thought processes. So let me interrogate you on a few here ---

1) Dwiltse as town -- I will admit that he has been so... productive, it feels like a marked change from his ususual town game which I find opaque and mystifying. This gives me pause, as the "Sometimes they play more town as scum" trait is one I have seen before, especially in players similar to dwiltse (JeanPhi). So... Is there a 'No, really, they are a villager" type argument that should help me get past my paranoia here?

2) You have UFO and Firestorm in the same bucket. I... do not. I think UFO has been generally solvy and I find his interactions very natural and flowing. I think the "3 godfathers" thing that is being used to scumread him makes very little sense as a scum slip, because essentially what is being argued is that UFO, as scum, decided to advertise one of the scum's greatest assets to the town. Which... no. As for "How could he believe that?" well, I kinda see the logic he has outlined, but even if I don't agree with it, I fail to see the scum agenda for it which I find more plausible, and it's not like he isn't pushing for a holistic town view, which I find good. So... I have UFO in the Dwiltse slot that you have.

3) I agree on Firestorm. I would go so far as to say I have suspicions of him being intentioanlly in Null Space this game. This post feels a bit odd in that votes on Agni are fair, but also Agni is totally in his town meta, which feels like having it both ways. I would prefer FS push one way or the other, and the message of this post seems to be "Agni is probably town and it is ok to vote him" which... No. This post appears to be the big engagement post from FS, but the thoughts are "Shadow is weird on Durga's reponse w/r/t fake claims" which is essentailly a point you've made previously, A reasonable but mechanically oriented post that is NAI on whether Buffy would merit town protections, a shot at Shadow that is... amusing, but also NAI (?), and a continued engagement with shadow that has not been renewed (and may not be) re me being snarky. And the rest is just... fine but not very interesting? Like there's a lot of text here, but I'm not sure what Firestorm is trying to accomplish at any point. His push is on shadow, where there is plenty of momentum already. He is not embiggening the circle. His range of engagement is pretty much scum focused only on Shadow, and I don't see much beyond that. (PS, Firestorm, feel free to correct me on any of this.)

4) w/r/t you Chuck... I see your discomfort on have 2 low activity and shadow (also low activity) -- So let's make it interesting. I've popped off on FS as a scum choice -- return the favor -- where are we not looking hard that we should be?
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 14 Jan 2019, 16:27

Ok, I've not spoken up yet on the UFO "Would there be godfathers?" thing yet, but I completely read that comment as "Would sjg even think of doing something that crazy?", not as "I think this could be the case." Like, equivalent with me going "Well my friends have five cats, which seems like a lot, but are they the kind of people who would have five cats and free roaming pet mice? Are they that nuts?"

My take has been that it was a flip comment from him while mulling over the possible game states, and someone else ran with it as a serious suggestion, and it blew out of proportion. I realize I may be putting words in his mouth, but personally I think it resulted in a pointless rabbit hole somewhere along the way.

@UFO: Ok, gotcha. But I disagree that it might make them hesitate to claim miller, because if I'm scum and going to IR as such, what's the downside?
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 14 Jan 2019, 16:32

ZZ and UDC, I'm going to go give FS a read over now. In the last few games I've played with him I've gotten a strong townie vibe, and I agree that he's falling in a null space right now, so much so that I hadn't really even thought about him yet. That's concerning when I consider the contrast.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby Zoomzip » 14 Jan 2019, 16:51

kimpossible wrote:I have a follow-up thought to this. ZZ has indicated that the cops assumed some of them were unreliable because sjg told them their results were not guaranteed to be accurate. I don't see anywhere that he mentions them considering the possibility of millers at that point.

Ergo, even if there is a rat in the Cop group, there's not necessarily a reason to think they would have pre-planned a miller fakeclaim, because they wouldn't have known it existed. Unless one of Durga or Shadow is actually also a cop, and actually a miller, and revealed that to them. But if not, then isn't the second miller claim the more suspect one? Would scum decide to fakeclaim miller without knowing if one exists?

I also am super interested in the fact that there was a fake Buffy claim in the Cop thread. And frustrated that we don't get to know who.


So, let me clarify, because this is not quite accurate, but you all deserve a summary of the interactions in thread, and I will give it to you, and I think by D2 we hope to actually explain everything. So... ZoomZip + Cops B, C, and D. Also, there are 209 (!!) posts in the cop thread, so I will do my best summarize and apologies if I miss key details or nuance. I Am sure fellow cops will fill in the blanks D2.

Cop B is first into thread, and hypothesizes that if everyone is town, then millers/godfathers seem likely. They then note that SJG won't confirm all cops are town. Proposes two cops investigate one player jointly, and two other cops jointly investigate a second player.

ZoomZip enters thread, confirms Cop B's statement that SJG won't confirm all cops are town, feels "like godfathers everywhere" could happen, argues for everyone to pick one person to IR, as SJG won't confirm IRs are reliable.

Cop B doubts that naive/sane/insane cops exist based on a PM read. Reiterates millers/GFs. Is fine with mass investigate

Cop C enters. Coins the term "rat" Argues for mass investigating outside of cop group. Proposes an early version of electing a spokesperson to out IRs to town (I missed this until now).

ZoomZip pokes at Cop B's evaluation of his PM. ZoomZip and Cop B argue over whether a mass investigate vs. a 2/1 2/1 plan is better. Cop C asks Cop B why have redundancy at all if there is no naive/paranoid (henceforth unreliable) cops. Cop B just doesn't want a scum cop to lie about an IR because there is a control check.

Cop D enters thread, indicates they won't be around until later

Cops B and C continue to debate what the GM balance that justified multiple cops would be. Cop C suggests a Framerrole could be in play. Cop B is like "Does that happen?" Cop C gives an example of a PlayDip game with a framer.

Zoomzip reiterates he specifically asked on IRs being reliable, and was specifically no commented. ZoomZip generally backs Cop C in his argument with Cop B. ZoomZip argues that the cop mechanic should be outed to the town. ZoomZip also says some, admittedly, unproductive things about Cop B's game and why he is skeptical of it. Cop B takes exception to Zoomzip's characterization.

Cop D provides that he will IR as town.

Cop C engages with the idea of outing the cop group to the town, looking for clarification. Cop C raises the specter of whether we should ask for a Buffy reveal?

Cop B notes the downside of having Buffy reveal is a dead Buffy. Then in the next post reveals as Buffy. then admits unreliable cops could exist.

ZoomZip explains why he is not counterclaiming the Buffy claim in an I am spartacus moment. Argues we should share the Buffy claim with the town because it is the worst of partial reveals. Yells at Cop B for entertaining the idea that there are four sane cops in a mason group as a balanced game. Argues for mass investigating Buffy N0 as a claibration of unreliable cops. Notes that if Cop B is Buffy, and there is a rat, he has a 50/50 shot at scum in Cops C and D and those are pretty good odds. Reveals he IRs as town. Says OK, if we're all sane and town then two godfathers and half the town is millers is not unreasonable. Maybe only one scum actually IRs as scum?

ZoomZip explains why he doesn't trust Cop B's decision making, and reiterates that Cop B's Buffy claim should be outed to the town. Hates the YOLO nature of Cop B's reveal. Wonders if scum get an N0 kill. Announces he has ordered an investigate of Cop B.

Cop C thinks the Buffy claim is legit, thinks Cop B is likely town, endorses outing Buffy to gain protective support, asks who Cop B should investigate.

Cop B reiterates that as a balance issue we could all be town given a combination of millers/GFs/unreliable IRs. Is against a D1 Buffy reveal. Argues for investigating ZoomZip.

ZoomZip and Cop B continue to snipe at each other. Cop B yells at ZoomZip that if Zoom outs Cop B w/o Cop B's clearance as Buffy it is totally anti-town. Cop C suggest Cop B only reveal if in vote peril. Argues that ZoomZip should give Cop B more credence that they are working in good faith and ZoomZip should not ignore Cop B's ideas. Cop B also agrees that ZoomZip should not ignore Cop B's ideas. ZoomZip forecefully points out that he has engaged on each of Cop B's ideas and snipes at Cop B. Hates Cop B's YOLO for me but not for thee mentality. Yells at Cop D for not being around.

Cop D shows up, and looks to clarify IR orders. Cop B clarifies the correct IR plan. We are agreed: ZoomZip, Cops C and D on Cop B, and Cop B on ZoomZip.

ZoomZip and Cop B argue as to whether Cop B YOLO Revealed as Buffy or not. ZoomZip gives some serious consideration to the idea that Cops B, C, and D are all scum and that this is a weird game where he is in on scum chat but it isn't presented that way. He disregards it, but... yeah, he thought it for a bit. Speculates that Cop C could behaviorally be scum.

That's like most of the first 60 posts or so.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby UFO Fever » 14 Jan 2019, 17:11

kimpossible wrote:Ok, I've not spoken up yet on the UFO "Would there be godfathers?" thing yet, but I completely read that comment as "Would sjg even think of doing something that crazy?", not as "I think this could be the case." Like, equivalent with me going "Well my friends have five cats, which seems like a lot, but are they the kind of people who would have five cats and free roaming pet mice? Are they that nuts?"

My take has been that it was a flip comment from him while mulling over the possible game states, and someone else ran with it as a serious suggestion, and it blew out of proportion. I realize I may be putting words in his mouth, but personally I think it resulted in a pointless rabbit hole somewhere along the way.

@UFO: Ok, gotcha. But I disagree that it might make them hesitate to claim miller, because if I'm scum and going to IR as such, what's the downside?


Your first two paragraphs are spot on. To answer your third, in a game with multiple cops that you strongly believe are A) not all reliable and B) know one is scum (just the assumption I'm making for this specific theory) a scum that's going to IR as scum doesn't HAVE to claim miller, because there's plausible deniability that the cop's investigation was just wrong. But then there's the thing, if there's a rat, the rat has known for days before the game started, actually wait @ZZ when did the cops find out their N0 investigation results? Was it before the game started or right when the game started?

Okay, carrying on, the rat has at least known since Day 1 began that somebody has 3 guilty investigation reveals (or 2 plus the rat) and that person apparently was NOT Durga or Shadow. Would scum know that a player has 3 guilty results and still push for one (or two I guess) of their own to claim miller? That, doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me? I'm now beginning to suspect that one or both of Durga/Shadow being scum and the cops having a rat are mutually exclusive scenarios. Because Durga already claimed vanilla, and I highly doubt Shadow is a cop, so that would make the 3 person scum team a bad cop, a fake miller, and a third bystander. If Buffy isn't a cop, that leaves a 1 in 5 pool of players for that third scum to be in. Having the 3 scum be hidden in pools of 4, 2, and 5 (with NO crossover) feels waaayyy too easy.

So that's where my head is at, discuss my game theory.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby UFO Fever » 14 Jan 2019, 17:17

Agni I see you're in the thread now please play and Do Stuff.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby UFO Fever » 14 Jan 2019, 17:19

Speaking of Playing and Doing Stuff, Conq and Durga, you two have been playing but have not made any votes. We have, what, about 24 hours? Please vote. Y u no vote?
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