by Damon Huntington » 25 Aug 2018, 22:33
I have to say that France has the short stick in this set-up, despite him leading in Supply Centres.
Assuming perfect collaboration between Austria and Russia, there's a moveset that cannot be stopped and that leads Munich to being taken:
- Tyrolia to Munich
- Bohemia SUPPORTS Tyrolia to Munich
- Silesia SUPPORTS Tyrolia to Munich
- Berlin SUPPORTS Tyrolia to Munich
- Prussia SUPPORTS Berlin HOLDS
- Vienna to Tyrolia
- Trieste SUPPORTS Vienna to Tyrolia
This move subjects Munich to a 4-unit attack, and can only be met by a 3-unit defence, which is insufficient to repel the attack. Furthermore, the strategy of counter-taking a territory with Munich is disallowed, as Berlin is reinforced by Russia's backrank. Last, but not least, France cannot exploit the opening of Tyrolia, as Vienna quickly strives to substitute it. Munich to Tyrolia (even if supported) fails when met by the 4-unit influx leaving from Tyrolia, and Venice to Tyrolia (even if supported by Munich) does not work as well, as Munich's support would be cut with the dislodgement.
As a result, this leads into the taking of Venice later on [Spring 1913], even if we discount the unit that shall be destroyed at the end of Fall. The relevant move here is Ionian Sea to Apulia, cutting the support for Venice to hold, and allowing Tyrolia to Venice, supported by Trieste, to work out wonderfully during the next season. Even if France tries to counterplay by taking Ionian Sea, Austria's plan succeeds: it is impossible to dislodge Ionian Sea AND prevent it from retreating to Adriatic Sea at the same time.
France's only option to try and save Venice is by playing Apulia to Adriatic Sea and Naples to Apulia during the previous season, which is exactly why Austria needs to prevent that counterplay by moving Ionian Sea - Naples on Fall 1912. This set of moves culminates in the taking of Venice on 1913.
As a result, it's highly unlikely that France can regain terrain. Kiel is threatened by North Sea and seems to be likely to be taken. Furthermore, France has opened a direct corridor to Marseilles via Piedmont, which can be exploited by the unit that has taken Venice... or, conversely, the player might also begin drafting an attack on Rome to nab another SCs from France's hands. All in all, France has a weak strategic stance and might be unravelled with enough prodding from the Austria-Russia alliance.
I believe he did correctly in accepting the draw, provided he believed that the adversaries would notice that and collaborate perfectly.