Hydra Nightmares Mafia

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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 01:59

Either checked out physically, as in they are not around until the deadline, or mentally, in that they have settled on a wrong lynch and refuse to reconsider. Either way I don't see anyone changing their vote.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby NewPhoneWhoDis » 03 Sep 2018, 02:00

viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=1050#p960604

I would appreciate a response, UFO.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:01

Lol sorry guys, UFO and I have both been posting over the last page.

~Mo
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:03

[quote= "NewPhoneWhoDis"]UFO, let's take a step back. I think you're rightly upset regardless of what you flip today. If you are town, then please take a moment to recenter yourself.

I brought up your behavior relating to your sjaggro vote here: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=930#p960468

I found your rationale for going after UAcro to be incorrect, and I have attempted to lay out how traditional wagonomics are not nearly as useful here due to the fractured nature of the vote. If you have some feedback on this, then please share it.

I further laid out how your behavior has felt off to me here: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=980#p960531

Regardless of which combination is the truth, I think that both narratives are completely valid. I am more inclined to consider it to be scum-motivated because I did not find your reasoning for excluding sjagrro as a vote target today to be compelling. I think that it is possible that you have other reasons for this shift. This is what informs my scumread of you.

I want to engage with you and come to the right decision today. We can't afford to mess up anymore. If you're town, work with me and help us to determine a better explanation for the above. Help us to figure out who is really scum here.

Now for some replies:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:How can you not see that the fact that the votes were 3-1 in UA's favor and now they're 3-2 for me not alarm you to the fact that at least one scum changed a vote to me, and off of UA. That means that UA has to be scum, because otherwise scum wouldn't fucking care. And if UA is scum, how the hell can I be the other scum? You think a scum that's gonna die now throws his vote to his last partner and fuels a scumread by the rest of the town to thwart his last chance of winning? UA and I can't be a scumteam, a scumteam with a chance of winning just on one mislynch wouldn't waste their votes by ONLY VOTING AGAINST EACH OTHER, especially if we both team up on one vote we only need to convince one more town to join. How the fuck does the town voting me not realize this?

Vote before justy voted for you:
UAcro (3): sjaggro, Stallion, MoUFOs
Zoom (1): NewPhone
No vote (1): UAcro

Vote now:
UAcro (2): sjaggro, MoUFOs
MoUFOs (3): NewPhone, Stallion, UAcro

What are you getting at here? From my perspective, it is entirely possible that UAcro and Stallion are both townies and have moved there votes onto you. So no, this doesn't work unless I'm brainfarting again.

If I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say, then please reword this or elaborate for me.


MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Way to ignore the fact that we discussed that someone being mislynched in this game is bound to act "weirder" than a Maf getting lynched. My argument was, if UA were town with all of those votes on him, SCUM WOULDNT BE CHANGING THEIR VOTES. Since there's 3 people voting me, and I know that I'm town, AT LEAST ONE SCUM THAT WASNT VOTING ME BEFORE IS NOW VOTING ME. Why the fuck would they have any incentive to do that if they were already voting for a different town player to be mislynched, and their switch off took UA out of the lead. It must mean that UA was scum, and a scum player that was bussing him has now switched onto me to win the game right now.

Okay, so it seems like the source of what you were saying before is because you're writing with the assumption you're town. That's completely fine for laying out your own thought process on certain matters, but you can't argue to someone who isn't you that something must be true given that you are town. We simply cannot assume that this is true, so we cannot use it to reach this conclusion.

Eh, looks like Damon is kind of hitting at the same thing on these last two quotes.

sjaggressive11 wrote:Great, well note to self in the future when scum, just say "busy RL, don't really care about this one" and I've got a guaranteed win right off the bat.

Like you're saying it's me and MoUFO at this point effectively. I... cannot fathom how I'm scummier than UA are to you right now. Like, I cannot appreciate that perspective at all.

You're scummier than UAcro in my mind because, as I laid out, I find the voting behavior between MoUFOs and UAcro to be difficult to understand from the perspective of both of them being scum. It's possible, but it significantly subverts my expectations. As I mentioned during day one, I have had an overall slight town read on you and a pretty null read on Telleo. You are simply more likely because the other possible pair in my mind is less likely.

Again, I think their play has been pretty unfavorable for the town, but the arguments you have provided do not deliver enough to answer how this is necessarily scummy behavior and not just bad play.

Side note: Nook, for the love of connect4's vote tabulator and all other things that are holy, give me a decent chunk of your time to lay out some clear thoughts on who is and is not scum. Like, if you're town, you can seal this for us by being more than a null factor here. I like you as a person and as a player, but I think Mo makes a decent point that I'm working a whole lot harder than you are to get this right. Yeah, you're on limited time. Don't waste your time reminding us. Just find something and offer some sort of insight.

Grrr.
Bleh.
Mafia is hard.

sjaggressive11 wrote:Yes but it's not town nook. Just because you're busy doesn't completely absolve you of scrutiny for your posts. Like how difficult would it have been for nook to go "I dunno ZZ, seems like he had plenty of townreads yesterday to me"? Like seriously, he didn't even do that. And this for someone who was apparently a confident townread on Day One. A read which he is wobbling on today when it's convenient and which he's being allowed to wobble on.

I'm not absolving him of scrutiny. I'm not trying to give him a free pass. I'm saying that, from how I read this, he was saying that he thought he understood what Zoom was getting at, but he didn't necessarily agree with it. Yeah, it misrepresented how many townreads you were offering. That's fair. But again, I am not getting the step to "this is scum-motivated".

sjaggressive11 wrote:But they haven't BEEN inactive. They've actually had a respectable number of posts between them. They've had enough time to make that number of posts. That means that they've had enough time to have done SOMETHING productive in this game. And they haven't.

Like I was being criticised for you earlier for not evolving my scumread on them. But how on earth am I meant to have evolved my scumread when, as you admit, their meta IS completely different to this and they still aren't engaged with the thread?

They haven't been completely inactive, sure. But they're clearly coming in, catching up and quoting single posts as they go, replying, and then leaving. They are obviously not spending as much time here. Sure, post-count-wise, they're doing alright. But like if you put each catch-up session into one post per session, it would tell quite a different story.

Why not look at their opinions during day one to see if they have been consistent there? I kept track of this while ISOing them yesterday (RL, not game-day), and I thought that their opinions on specific players have progressed in a way that makes sense. Disagree? Find something. Give me something to sink my teeth into. I'll kill UAcro if you give me something better to work with, but right now, I'm just fine where I am.

sjaggressive11 wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Stallion and NewPhone, if you're locked into your current votes on me can you just vote to end day? If there's no fucking point to defend myself I'm not going to put the effort and we might as well just end the game now. I've got things I need done today and the lack of Mafia distraction would help a lot.


This, too, is concerning.

Town is not playing only for a one-day lynch, as we have two people that we need to identify correctly in order to win the game. Ending the day early denies us the possibility of catching someone else in a scumslip or any other inconsistency, which can prove to be essential during D3.

Oh come on Damon, the End Day vote is clearly a snap emotional reaction to an imminent lynch/loss.

Trying to analyse it from a logical perspective doesn't work as it's not a logical action regardless of UFO's alignment.

Agreed here. Damon, I appreciate that you try to incorporate new evidence, but I believe that you jump to quickly to fit things into your narrative before considering that a behavior might be a null tell.

sjg, I'd like your perspective on this specifically because I value your opinion as a player. Do you make anything of Fatmo's insistence that I needed to wait for UFO to reply on several subjects when I was questioning him on a few things several pages back? I don't want to delve into confirmation bias myself, so I'd like your perspective here. Does Fatmo deferring to UFO on those things mean anything?

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:I'm MORE desperate as town because this fuck up loses the game. That's MY undefeated record gone to shit because of you.

Yeah, this reaction works as a townie. But we would also be jeopardizing your record as mafia by lynching scum-UFO. I don't draw much either way from this kind of reaction because this sort of anger can happen from either alignment under these circumstances.

You were talking about how even if UAcro were a mislynch, it would be poetic justice. The votes were piling up on your preferred choice.

Then justy sneaks in an says mean things about you in red. Then Nook does. Then Damon does.

Suddenly, you're in first place in a race you don't want to win.

Yeah, it's unexpected. It's surprising. And you're not doing enough to prevent it.

If your emotions are genuine either way, I'm sorry for causing you this amount of displeasure. I am working based on the data I have to work with, and you are simply the highest expected value for a successful scum lynch today.

Phew, I think that's everything for now.

I know things are really tense right now. This has been a very difficult game for me on several levels. I don't want to upset anyone. Please work with me.

- FS[/quote]

If the bolded is true that means you are admitting to being scum, because you'd KNOW I'm town so that would leave a you/sjg scumteam. Either that, or you're wrong. There are no other alternatives.

As an added note. Superfuck this no more than 3 embedded quotes forum bullshit. Very inconvenient.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:04

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Lol sorry guys, UFO and I have both been posting over the last page.

~Mo


if they can't tell who's who at this point then that's on them.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:05

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:https://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=1050#p960604

I would appreciate a response, UFO.


Tell me who my partner is and why.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:06

Even if UFO is able to read through all those posts and theories, which contain links to yet even more posts and theories, and manages a coherent response in the next 45 minutes, are you really ready to change your vote? Or are you just yanking our chains for no reason at the EOD just because you're supposed to keep up appearances until the end? You seem completely inflexible at the moment.

I'll be really curious to see if you're just a misguided townie or a scum who's really good at constructing narratives. If the votes hold up on MoUFOs, we'll find out in about an hour.

~Mo
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:09

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Even if UFO is able to read through all those posts and theories, which contain links to yet even more posts and theories, and manages a coherent response in the next 45 minutes, are you really ready to change your vote? Or are you just yanking our chains for no reason at the EOD just because you're supposed to keep up appearances until the end? You seem completely inflexible at the moment.

I'll be really curious to see if you're just a misguided townie or a scum who's really good at constructing narratives. If the votes hold up on MoUFOs, we'll find out in about an hour.

~Mo


Seriously, it's our asses on the line here. Answer OUR questions. Now.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:10

@STALLIONHEADHYDRA

NewPhone pressed us for info and then immediately left the thread! How does this not ring all the alarm bells?!
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 02:15

@STALLION

Also, he never responded to this post. The one I really want you to look at. viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=1050#p960610
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