So on this site I have noticed that basically everyone, other than some of the FtF players, places a very high degree of importance on the size of the draw in the endgame.
In addition, after my most recent game on here was completed, I was (incorrectly) called "too risk-averse" for a certain decision that I made. So I'm starting this thread because I'm genuinely curious about how other players on this site would evaluate the situation I'm about to describe.
Suppose you are in an endgame where you have a big decision that could go one of two ways:
1. If you refuse to stab someone, you will end the game with a 4way draw.
2. If you pull the trigger on the stab, you will sometimes end the game with a 3way draw, and you will sometimes lose.
What is the thought process that determines whether you go through with the riskier option?
If asked to put numbers on it, what would you say is the relative difference in value between a 4way and a 3way draw to you, compared to the difference between a 4way draw and a loss?
What level of confidence would you want to have to pull the trigger?
Do you have other qualitative reasons for why you would or wouldn't stab?