This topic may be premature...but I'm guessing enough players have played enough of this variant to have some preliminary ideas.
My initial observations are that Russia does well...and, suprisingly, Germany and Italy seem to do well. Perhaps they have more opportunities to pick up early SC's. England and France don't do well. England must compete with Sweden to get Oslo, and can't even take the neutral Ireland in the first year. France has Spain breathing on his back, and often faces what appears to be a traditional Germany-Italy alliance. Poland has it tough and seems to get squashed between Russia, Germany and a host of minors. Turkey has Egypt behind him...but can do well it he conquers it quickly.
As for the minors...their positioning to their home country can make or break them. In general, Spain seems to be the strongest at first as it has one of the few uncontested SC grabs on the board, and can conquer a careless France. Sweden is mashed between England, Germany and Russia and usually doesn't grow. Egypt can flourish if paired with Turkey or Russia; otherwise it has a bleak future. The four Balkan minors are little kids in the big-boy mosh pit...and have a short life expectancy. Again, positioning to the home power is paramount.
What are the thoughts of others?