First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Anything about the Diplomacy game in general.

First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby connect4 » 20 Jun 2012, 21:48

So, based on a recent thread , a question came up about the tendencies of first moves for each unit in countries. As someone who was curious about this, here are the frequency of moves done here on site in Classic games (with any seemingly-NMR game removed). As before, the data is formatted as ALL_GAMES / DRAW_OR_WIN / DRAW_OR_WIN-ALL_GAMES. I've marked in red/blue moves that are off by at least 1%, as with the 18000+ games we have, I'm pretty sure that these are statistically significant differences. I only am reporting openings that are played by at least 1% of players on the site, as there are a lot of... strange support orders; any order listed below as 0% was really <1%. If you're interested in any of the other openings that were <1%, let me know and I can dig those up for you. Feel free to discuss your thoughts on what you see!

AUSTRIA
Budapest MOVE Galicia: 1.24% / 1.02% / -0.22%
Budapest MOVE Rumania: 14.97% / 8.89% / -6.09%
Budapest MOVE Serbia: 80.26% / 87.58% / 7.32%
Budapest MOVE Trieste: 1.21% / 1.05% / -0.16%
Budapest SUPPORT Vienna to Galicia: 0% / 1.02% / 1.02%

Trieste HOLD: 13.3% / 9.11% / -4.19%
Trieste MOVE Adriatic Sea: 10.62% / 5.23% / -5.39%
Trieste MOVE Albania: 65.43% / 77.15% / 11.72%
Trieste MOVE Venice: 8.02% / 7.44% / -0.58%

Vienna HOLD: 6.06% / 3.68% / -2.38%
Vienna MOVE Bohemia: 2.59% / 1.59% / -0.99%
Vienna MOVE Budapest: 24.66% / 25.14% / 0.47%
Vienna MOVE Galicia: 26.31% / 31.23% / 4.92%
Vienna MOVE Trieste: 30.17% / 31.86% / 1.68%
Vienna MOVE Tyrolia: 7.85% / 5.7% / -2.15%

ENGLAND
Edinburgh MOVE North Sea: 34.63% / 30.66% / -3.97%
Edinburgh MOVE Norway: 2.76% / 0% / -2.76%
Edinburgh MOVE Norwegian Sea: 60.39% / 68.04% / 7.65%

Liverpool HOLD: 1.64% / 0% / -1.64%
Liverpool MOVE Edinburgh: 26.22% / 29.87% / 3.65%
Liverpool MOVE London: 5.69% / 3.12% / -2.57%
Liverpool MOVE Wales: 11.42% / 9.58% / -1.84%
Liverpool MOVE Yorkshire: 53.19% / 56.32% / 3.13%

London HOLD: 2.15% / 0% / -2.15%
London MOVE Belgium: 2.1% / 0% / -2.1%
London MOVE English Channel: 33.51% / 31.07% / -2.44%
London MOVE North Sea: 59.85% / 67.07% / 7.22%

FRANCE
Brest HOLD: 1.4% / 0% / -1.4%
Brest MOVE English Channel: 18.02% / 17.52% / -0.49%
Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 70.28% / 73.93% / 3.65%
Brest MOVE Picardy: 7.3% / 6.74% / -0.56%

Marseilles HOLD: 8.66% / 7.82% / -0.84%
Marseilles MOVE Burgundy: 7.81% / 9.07% / 1.26%
Marseilles MOVE Gascony: 0% / 0.99% / 0.99%
Marseilles MOVE Piedmont: 3.62% / 3.36% / -0.26%
Marseilles MOVE Spain: 66.14% / 62.63% / -3.51%
Marseilles SUPPORT Paris to Burgundy: 12.14% / 15.79% / 3.65%

Paris HOLD: 1.94% / 0% / -1.94%
Paris MOVE Burgundy: 48.1% / 51.48% / 3.38%
Paris MOVE Gascony: 10.35% / 10.56% / 0.2%
Paris MOVE Picardy: 36.87% / 35.6% / -1.27%

GERMANY
Berlin HOLD: 3.57% / 1.72% / -1.85%
Berlin MOVE Denmark: 1.25% / 0% / -1.25%
Berlin MOVE Kiel: 80.47% / 89.04% / 8.57%
Berlin MOVE Munich: 2.17% / 1.63% / -0.54%
Berlin MOVE Prussia: 5.12% / 2.96% / -2.17%
Berlin MOVE Silesia: 5.71% / 3.53% / -2.18%

Kiel MOVE Baltic Sea: 2.32% / 1.76% / -0.55%
Kiel MOVE Denmark: 56.14% / 63.74% / 7.6%
Kiel MOVE Helgoland Bight: 2.26% / 1.3% / -0.96%
Kiel MOVE Holland: 37.84% / 32.71% / -5.14%

Munich HOLD: 9.3% / 6.7% / -2.59%
Munich MOVE Bohemia: 2.64% / 1.85% / -0.79%
Munich MOVE Burgundy: 15.61% / 17.23% / 1.62%
Munich MOVE Kiel: 2.02% / 1.46% / -0.56%
Munich MOVE Ruhr: 59.81% / 65.09% / 5.28%
Munich MOVE Silesia: 3.76% / 3.13% / -0.62%
Munich MOVE Tyrolia: 4.27% / 3.09% / -1.18%

ITALY
Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 74.11% / 83.69% / 9.58%
Naples MOVE Tunis: 2.55% / 0% / -2.55%
Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 20.08% / 14.72% / -5.37%

Rome HOLD: 4.1% / 2.85% / -1.25%
Rome MOVE Apulia: 24.31% / 30.23% / 5.92%
Rome MOVE Naples: 13.03% / 11.63% / -1.41%
Rome MOVE Tuscany: 14.43% / 9.05% / -5.39%
Rome MOVE Venice: 40.38% / 45.1% / 4.72%

Venice HOLD: 31.78% / 27.78% / -4%
Venice MOVE Apulia: 2.03% / 2.13% / 0.09%
Venice MOVE Piedmont: 25.26% / 25.78% / 0.52%
Venice MOVE Trieste: 12.05% / 13.09% / 1.04%
Venice MOVE Tyrolia: 26.08% / 29.19% / 3.11%

RUSSIA
Moscow HOLD: 1.81% / 1.21% / -0.6%
Moscow MOVE Livonia: 5.16% / 3.32% / -1.84%
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol: 11.56% / 10.19% / -1.38%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg: 25.36% / 29.72% / 4.36%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine: 50.34% / 51.7% / 1.36%
Moscow MOVE Warsaw: 3.76% / 3.06% / -0.7%

Sevastopol HOLD: 4.53% / 3.14% / -1.39%
Sevastopol MOVE Armenia: 2.1% / 1.91% / -0.19%
Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 44.91% / 51.3% / 6.39%
Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 47.7% / 43.31% / -4.4%

St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Finland: 3.74% / 2.94% / -0.8%
St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia: 88.72% / 94.4% / 5.68%
St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Norway: 1.29% / 0% / -1.29%
St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Sweden: 3.98% / 1.47% / -2.51%

Warsaw HOLD: 18.24% / 12% / -6.24%
Warsaw MOVE Galicia: 45.89% / 51% / 5.1%
Warsaw MOVE Livonia: 3.02% / 2.34% / -0.68%
Warsaw MOVE Prussia: 3.24% / 1.79% / -1.45%
Warsaw MOVE Silesia: 6.32% / 6.14% / -0.18%
Warsaw MOVE Ukraine: 21.7% / 25.73% / 4.03%

TURKEY
Ankara HOLD: 4.85% / 3.77% / -1.08%
Ankara MOVE Armenia: 1.18% / 0% / -1.18%
Ankara MOVE Black Sea: 71.36% / 74.76% / 3.4%
Ankara MOVE Constantinople: 19.1% / 18.88% / -0.22%

Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria: 98.25% / 99.38% / 1.13%

Smyrna HOLD: 10.57% / 9.62% / -0.95%
Smyrna MOVE Ankara: 7.71% / 7.87% / 0.17%
Smyrna MOVE Armenia: 22.46% / 22.46% / 0%
Smyrna MOVE Constantinople: 56.33% / 58.37% / 2.04%
Smyrna MOVE Greece: 1.1% / 0% / -1.1%
Last edited by connect4 on 20 Jun 2012, 23:14, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby asudevil » 20 Jun 2012, 21:51

Ok, Im tired now...but want to remember to look at this later...
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby dcaibal » 20 Jun 2012, 21:52

Huh, the variations of the Balkan Gambit are the most used Austria moves. Interesting...
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby connect4 » 20 Jun 2012, 21:59

Same stats as above, but instead this compares moves in ALL_GAMES vs solos. It's mostly the same, but there's a few subtle differences. Enjoy!

AUSTRIA
Budapest MOVE Galicia: 1.24% / 0% / -1.24%
Budapest MOVE Rumania: 14.97% / 7.88% / -7.1%
Budapest MOVE Serbia: 80.26% / 89.24% / 8.98%
Budapest MOVE Trieste: 1.21% / 0% / -1.21%
Budapest SUPPORT Vienna to Galicia: 0% / 1.06% / 1.06%

Trieste HOLD: 13.3% / 6.53% / -6.77%
Trieste MOVE Adriatic Sea: 10.62% / 3.94% / -6.68%
Trieste MOVE Albania: 65.43% / 82.04% / 16.61%
Trieste MOVE Venice: 8.02% / 7.11% / -0.91%

Vienna HOLD: 6.06% / 4.23% / -1.84%
Vienna MOVE Bohemia: 2.59% / 2.11% / -0.47%
Vienna MOVE Budapest: 24.66% / 24.69% / 0.02%
Vienna MOVE Galicia: 26.31% / 32.28% / 5.96%
Vienna MOVE Trieste: 30.17% / 32.28% / 2.1%
Vienna MOVE Tyrolia: 7.85% / 3.84% / -4%

ENGLAND
Edinburgh MOVE North Sea: 34.63% / 36.03% / 1.4%
Edinburgh MOVE Norway: 2.76% / 0% / -2.76%
Edinburgh MOVE Norwegian Sea: 60.39% / 63.22% / 2.83%

Liverpool HOLD: 1.64% / 0% / -1.64%
Liverpool MOVE Edinburgh: 26.22% / 27.84% / 1.62%
Liverpool MOVE London: 5.69% / 3.17% / -2.53%
Liverpool MOVE Wales: 11.42% / 10.43% / -0.99%
Liverpool MOVE Yorkshire: 53.19% / 58.1% / 4.91%

London HOLD: 2.15% / 0% / -2.15%
London MOVE Belgium: 2.1% / 0% / -2.1%
London MOVE English Channel: 33.51% / 36.69% / 3.17%
London MOVE North Sea: 59.85% / 62.01% / 2.16%

FRANCE
Brest HOLD: 1.4% / 0% / -1.4%
Brest MOVE English Channel: 18.02% / 21% / 2.98%
Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 70.28% / 71.11% / 0.82%
Brest MOVE Picardy: 7.3% / 6.45% / -0.85%

Marseilles HOLD: 8.66% / 6.25% / -2.41%
Marseilles MOVE Burgundy: 7.81% / 11.05% / 3.24%
Marseilles MOVE Gascony: 0% / 1.24% / 1.24%
Marseilles MOVE Piedmont: 3.62% / 2.54% / -1.08%
Marseilles MOVE Spain: 66.14% / 61.7% / -4.44%
Marseilles SUPPORT Paris to Burgundy: 12.14% / 16.95% / 4.81%

Paris HOLD: 1.94% / 0% / -1.94%
Paris MOVE Burgundy: 48.1% / 53.47% / 5.37%
Paris MOVE Gascony: 10.35% / 9.27% / -1.09%
Paris MOVE Picardy: 36.87% / 35.48% / -1.38%

GERMANY
Berlin HOLD: 3.57% / 0% / -3.57%
Berlin MOVE Denmark: 1.25% / 0% / -1.25%
Berlin MOVE Kiel: 80.47% / 92.5% / 12.03%
Berlin MOVE Munich: 2.17% / 0.98% / -1.2%
Berlin MOVE Prussia: 5.12% / 3.02% / -2.11%
Berlin MOVE Silesia: 5.71% / 1.96% / -3.75%

Kiel MOVE Baltic Sea: 2.32% / 1.79% / -0.53%
Kiel MOVE Denmark: 56.14% / 63.57% / 7.43%
Kiel MOVE Helgoland Bight: 2.26% / 1.22% / -1.04%
Kiel MOVE Holland: 37.84% / 32.93% / -4.92%

Munich HOLD: 9.3% / 5.46% / -3.84%
Munich MOVE Bohemia: 2.64% / 1.3% / -1.34%
Munich MOVE Burgundy: 15.61% / 19.07% / 3.46%
Munich MOVE Kiel: 2.02% / 0.98% / -1.04%
Munich MOVE Ruhr: 59.81% / 67.24% / 7.43%
Munich MOVE Silesia: 3.76% / 2.53% / -1.23%
Munich MOVE Tyrolia: 4.27% / 2.61% / -1.66%

ITALY
Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 74.11% / 86.85% / 12.74%
Naples MOVE Tunis: 2.55% / 0% / -2.55%
Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 20.08% / 12.34% / -7.74%
Rome HOLD: 4.1% / 1.98% / -2.12%
Rome MOVE Apulia: 24.31% / 26.54% / 2.23%
Rome MOVE Naples: 13.03% / 10.01% / -3.02%
Rome MOVE Tuscany: 14.43% / 6.75% / -7.68%
Rome MOVE Venice: 40.38% / 53.55% / 13.17%
Venice HOLD: 31.78% / 24.91% / -6.87%
Venice MOVE Apulia: 2.03% / 1.05% / -0.99%
Venice MOVE Piedmont: 25.26% / 22.47% / -2.79%
Venice MOVE Trieste: 12.05% / 13.04% / 0.99%
Venice MOVE Tyrolia: 26.08% / 37.14% / 11.06%

RUSSIA
Moscow HOLD: 1.81% / 1.06% / -0.74%
Moscow MOVE Livonia: 5.16% / 3.02% / -2.15%
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol: 11.56% / 8.49% / -3.07%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg: 25.36% / 31.68% / 6.32%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine: 50.34% / 52.46% / 2.12%
Moscow MOVE Warsaw: 3.76% / 2.74% / -1.03%

Sevastopol HOLD: 4.53% / 2.46% / -2.07%
Sevastopol MOVE Armenia: 2.1% / 1.51% / -0.59%
Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 44.91% / 56.42% / 11.52%
Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 47.7% / 39.27% / -8.43%

St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Finland: 3.74% / 3.02% / -0.73%
St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia: 88.72% / 95.25% / 6.53%
St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Norway: 1.29% / 0% / -1.29%
St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Sweden: 3.98% / 0% / -3.98%

Warsaw HOLD: 18.24% / 9.11% / -9.13%
Warsaw MOVE Galicia: 45.89% / 55.14% / 9.25%
Warsaw MOVE Livonia: 3.02% / 2.01% / -1%
Warsaw MOVE Prussia: 3.24% / 1.4% / -1.84%
Warsaw MOVE Silesia: 6.32% / 6.09% / -0.23%
Warsaw MOVE Ukraine: 21.7% / 25.53% / 3.83%

TURKEY
Ankara HOLD: 4.85% / 3.22% / -1.62%
Ankara MOVE Armenia: 1.18% / 1% / -0.18%
Ankara MOVE Black Sea: 71.36% / 78.02% / 6.66%
Ankara MOVE Constantinople: 19.1% / 16.3% / -2.8%

Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria: 98.25% / 99.53% / 1.28%

Smyrna HOLD: 10.57% / 8.09% / -2.48%
Smyrna MOVE Ankara: 7.71% / 6.1% / -1.61%
Smyrna MOVE Armenia: 22.46% / 25.79% / 3.33%
Smyrna MOVE Constantinople: 56.33% / 58.85% / 2.52%
Smyrna MOVE Greece: 1.1% / 0% / -1.1%
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby connect4 » 20 Jun 2012, 22:22

And I'll probably get in trouble at work for taking the time to do this, but split out by openings by country (again, all of the below have occurred in >1% of the games). This table is different; it's listed as ALL / WIN_OR_DRAW / SOLO So Vie Hold / Tri -> Alb / Bud -> Ser is used 2.75% of the time by any player, 2.76% of the time by someone involved in the draw, and 3.07% of the time by those who end up soloing.

AUSTRIA
Vienna HOLD; Trieste HOLD; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1.02% / 0% / 0%
Vienna HOLD; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 2.75% / 2.76% / 3.07%
Vienna MOVE Bohemia; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1.03% / 0% / 0%
Vienna MOVE Budapest; Trieste HOLD; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 4.07% / 3.36% / 2.21%
Vienna MOVE Budapest; Trieste MOVE Adriatic Sea; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1.14% / 0% / 0%
Vienna MOVE Budapest; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Rumania: 1.45% / 1.02% / 1.06%
Vienna MOVE Budapest; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 14.77% / 18.04% / 19.5%
Vienna MOVE Budapest; Trieste MOVE Venice; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1.41% / 1.32% / 1.06%
Vienna MOVE Galicia; Trieste HOLD; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 2.83% / 2.49% / 2.02%
Vienna MOVE Galicia; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Rumania: 2.4% / 2.49% / 1.92%
Vienna MOVE Galicia; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 13.11% / 18.87% / 21.42%
Vienna MOVE Galicia; Trieste MOVE Venice; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 3.64% / 4.21% / 4.61%
Vienna MOVE Trieste; Trieste MOVE Adriatic Sea; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 2.87% / 1.87% / 1.44%
Vienna MOVE Trieste; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Rumania: 2.97% / 1.97% / 1.83%
Vienna MOVE Trieste; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 22.03% / 26.61% / 27.47%
Vienna MOVE Tyrolia; Trieste HOLD; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1.06% / 0% / 0%
Vienna MOVE Tyrolia; Trieste MOVE Adriatic Sea; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1% / 0% / 0%
Vienna MOVE Tyrolia; Trieste MOVE Albania; Budapest MOVE Serbia: 1.96% / 2.12% / 2.11%

ENGLAND
Edinburgh MOVE North Sea; Liverpool MOVE Edinburgh; London MOVE English Channel: 2.04% / 1.76% / 2.05%
Edinburgh MOVE North Sea; Liverpool MOVE London; London MOVE English Channel: 1.89% / 1.26% / 1.68%
Edinburgh MOVE North Sea; Liverpool MOVE Wales; London MOVE English Channel: 8.31% / 7.94% / 8.57%
Edinburgh MOVE North Sea; Liverpool MOVE Yorkshire; London MOVE English Channel: 18.73% / 18.39% / 23.09%
Edinburgh MOVE Norwegian Sea; Liverpool MOVE Edinburgh; London MOVE North Sea: 22.75% / 27.16% / 25.33%
Edinburgh MOVE Norwegian Sea; Liverpool MOVE London; London MOVE North Sea: 1.92% / 1.36% / 1.12%
Edinburgh MOVE Norwegian Sea; Liverpool MOVE Wales; London MOVE North Sea: 1.55% / 0% / 0.93%
Edinburgh MOVE Norwegian Sea; Liverpool MOVE Yorkshire; London MOVE North Sea: 31.76% / 36.65% / 34.17%

FRANCE
Marseilles HOLD; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 2.07% / 1.91% / 1.65%
Marseilles HOLD; Paris MOVE Picardy; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 4.03% / 3.84% / 3.23%
Marseilles MOVE Burgundy; Paris MOVE Gascony; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 1.37% / 1.64% / 1.58%
Marseilles MOVE Burgundy; Paris MOVE Picardy; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 4.58% / 5.71% / 6.73%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE English Channel: 5.08% / 5.11% / 6.59%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 21.33% / 22.49% / 21.69%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE Picardy: 4.01% / 3.47% / 3.43%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Gascony; Brest MOVE English Channel: 2.73% / 2.72% / 2.88%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Gascony; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 2.73% / 2.97% / 2.61%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Gascony; Brest MOVE Picardy: 1.39% / 1.31% / 1.03%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Picardy; Brest MOVE English Channel: 6.05% / 5.48% / 5.56%
Marseilles MOVE Spain; Paris MOVE Picardy; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 18.12% / 16.66% / 15.58%
Marseilles SUPPORT Paris to Burgundy; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE English Channel: 1.47% / 1.8% / 2.75%
Marseilles SUPPORT Paris to Burgundy; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE Mid-Atlantic Ocean: 9.33% / 12.43% / 12.9%
Marseilles SUPPORT Paris to Burgundy; Paris MOVE Burgundy; Brest MOVE Picardy: 1.19% / 1.43% / 1.3%

GERMANY
Munich HOLD; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 3.52% / 3.93% / 2.93%
Munich HOLD; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Holland: 2.95% / 1.94% / 2.12%
Munich MOVE Burgundy; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 7.96% / 9.81% / 11.65%
Munich MOVE Burgundy; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Holland: 6.12% / 6.7% / 6.28%
Munich MOVE Ruhr; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 31.22% / 38.93% / 40.83%
Munich MOVE Ruhr; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Helgoland Bight: 1.02% / 0% / 0%
Munich MOVE Ruhr; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Holland: 19.05% / 18.79% / 20.86%
Munich MOVE Ruhr; Berlin MOVE Silesia; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 1.89% / 1.59% / 0%
Munich MOVE Silesia; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 0% / 1.12% / 1.06%
Munich MOVE Silesia; Berlin MOVE Prussia; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 1.26% / 1.12% / 0%
Munich MOVE Tyrolia; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Denmark: 1.63% / 1.9% / 1.87%
Munich MOVE Tyrolia; Berlin MOVE Kiel; Kiel MOVE Holland: 1.27% / 0% / 0%

ITALY
Venice HOLD; Rome HOLD; Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 1.1% / 0% / 0%
Venice HOLD; Rome MOVE Apulia; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 14.03% / 16.68% / 13.85%
Venice HOLD; Rome MOVE Naples; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 7.1% / 5.96% / 5.94%
Venice HOLD; Rome MOVE Tuscany; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 2.33% / 1.36% / 1.16%
Venice HOLD; Rome MOVE Tuscany; Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 2.93% / 1.44% / 1.75%
Venice MOVE Piedmont; Rome MOVE Apulia; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 2.7% / 3.73% / 2.33%
Venice MOVE Piedmont; Rome MOVE Naples; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 1.67% / 1.76% / 1.51%
Venice MOVE Piedmont; Rome MOVE Tuscany; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 1.4% / 1.38% / 0%
Venice MOVE Piedmont; Rome MOVE Tuscany; Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 3.47% / 3.11% / 2.21%
Venice MOVE Piedmont; Rome MOVE Venice; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 8.99% / 10.03% / 12.22%
Venice MOVE Piedmont; Rome MOVE Venice; Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 4.42% / 4.1% / 3.49%
Venice MOVE Trieste; Rome MOVE Apulia; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 3.61% / 5.56% / 5.94%
Venice MOVE Trieste; Rome MOVE Naples; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 1.6% / 1.76% / 1.4%
Venice MOVE Trieste; Rome MOVE Venice; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 3.3% / 4.1% / 3.96%
Venice MOVE Tyrolia; Rome MOVE Apulia; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 2.03% / 2.66% / 3.38%
Venice MOVE Tyrolia; Rome MOVE Venice; Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 18.47% / 22.94% / 30.97%
Venice MOVE Tyrolia; Rome MOVE Venice; Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 2.46% / 2.24% / 1.98%

RUSSIA
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw HOLD; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 1.26% / 0.99% / 0%
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Galicia; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 1.21% / 0% / 0%
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Ukraine; Sevastopol MOVE Armenia: 1% / 1.15% / 0%
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Ukraine; Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 2.25% / 2.42% / 2.12%
Moscow MOVE Sevastopol; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Ukraine; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 2.63% / 2.7% / 2.23%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw HOLD; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 1.39% / 1.11% / 0%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Galicia; Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 2.88% / 3.89% / 4.69%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Galicia; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 4.17% / 4.45% / 4.8%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Ukraine; Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 7.2% / 10.43% / 12.23%
Moscow MOVE St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Ukraine; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 4.19% / 5.13% / 4.75%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw HOLD; Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 3.88% / 3.32% / 3.02%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw HOLD; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 4.19% / 3.04% / 2.46%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Galicia; Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 18.65% / 23.47% / 27.65%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Galicia; Sevastopol HOLD: 0% / 1.11% / 0%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Galicia; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 11.75% / 12.42% / 11.68%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Silesia; Sevastopol MOVE Black Sea: 1.38% / 1.71% / 1.45%
Moscow MOVE Ukraine; St. Petersburg (South Coast) MOVE Gulf of Bothnia; Warsaw MOVE Silesia; Sevastopol MOVE Rumania: 1.22% / 1.29% / 1.12%

TURKEY
Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria; Ankara HOLD; Smyrna MOVE Constantinople: 4.08% / 3.47% / 2.93%
Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria; Ankara MOVE Black Sea; Smyrna MOVE Armenia: 19.24% / 20.16% / 22.86%
Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria; Ankara MOVE Black Sea; Smyrna MOVE Constantinople: 48.98% / 52.8% / 53.63%
Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria; Ankara MOVE Constantinople; Smyrna HOLD: 9.13% / 8.9% / 7.44%
Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria; Ankara MOVE Constantinople; Smyrna MOVE Ankara: 6.51% / 7.05% / 5.57%
Constantinople MOVE Bulgaria; Ankara MOVE Constantinople; Smyrna MOVE Armenia: 2.26% / 1.92% / 2.52%
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby thecollective » 20 Jun 2012, 23:04

connect4 wrote:NAPLES
Naples MOVE Ionian Sea: 74.11% / 83.69% / 9.58%
Naples MOVE Tunis: 2.55% / 0% / -2.55%
Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea: 20.08% / 14.72% / -5.37%


I think you meant "ITALY" to be the header here (in the OP only - the rest looks correct; but I didn't even see them get posted)...

Thanks very much for doing all of this, btw. This'll keep me occupied in thought for a while...
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby MichaelG » 20 Jun 2012, 23:13

I'm impressed by the number of invalid orders... Edi-Nwy? Lon-Bel? StP (sc)-Swe? :roll:
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby connect4 » 20 Jun 2012, 23:15

thecollective wrote:I think you meant "ITALY" to be the header here (in the OP only - the rest looks correct; but I didn't even see them get posted)...


I don't know what you're talking about ;) (Thanks for pointing that out!)

MichaelG wrote:I'm impressed by the number of invalid orders... Edi-Nwy? Lon-Bel? StP (sc)-Swe? :roll:


You should see some of the ones that didn't make 1%... Edi-Cly, for example, has been ordered 7 times on the site in 1901 ;)
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby bratsffl » 21 Jun 2012, 01:35

Very impressive, you must work for the same company I do?

Nice to know that whenever I'm Turkey I now know the correct move for Const :?
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Re: First Move Tendencies on PlayDip

Postby Jegpeg » 21 Jun 2012, 19:44

Wow thanks for this it is very informative and I have only just stared scratching the surface of what is there.

Couple of things I have found:

Austrian opening: F(Tri)-Alb, A(Bud)-Ser, A(Vie)-Gal
In the early days of diplomacy from the sample of postal games in http://www.diplom.org/~diparch/resource ... enings.htm this was the second most popular Austrian but it has been attempted less than 1% of games on playdip.

Russian Opening: Mos to Ukr, StP to GoB, War Hold
Maybe there needs to be some more openings named, according to http://www.diplom.org/Online/Openings/interactive.html? there are 5 variations of the Ukraine System (Mos to Ukr, StP to GoB) but none of these include War hold. 8% of Playdip Games have Russia opening this way.
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