fwiw, the thing wrt Germany was more, I'd talked a fair amount asking for a German stab of the EF set, and then when EF stabbed instead, they together had control of the board and I wasn't really in position to fight them even with German help, so it was mainly "will they be ok with a 3-way draw with substantially better SC splits than EFG had agreed or will they try for more, knowing that a solo stab by the other of the pair would be potentially a major risk" and at that point, better to just throw in with them and hope for the best.
I think that the stab by Turkey 1.0 of Russia was nearly insane; grabbing a dot or two in exchange for giving up an absolutely vital potential ally (and the best way to shut down EF much less EFG is to slow their growth and force them into a stalemate situation where they HAVE to stab a buddy in order to grow) is a major misplay barring a rock solid agreement with EF... which very obviously didn't exist.
In terms of WT, if you're Germany and you think that EF are friendly, then (IMO) you basically go begging Russia and Italy to intervene. If no one tries for ENG in spring 1901 you basically ALWAYS let Russia into Sweden even if you need to abandon the hell out of a possible Austrian friendship, because a Russian build in STP (F STP NC or A STP both help) can SHUT DOWN English growth prospects up north. Similarly, getting an Italian fleet into the TYS area can strangle French growth prospects down south, and from there it's basically running RIG against EF, which is actually pretty damn winnable imo (it's certainly what I did as Italy in PDL 2/3/1 early and midgame fwiw... and while it turned into the ole' FIR in the end, for quite a while Germany's position was entirely viable)
I could basically just look at fall 1901 moves

and predict an easy ride for EF. Russia gets just one build and is preoccupied down south. Germany gets two builds but is hostile to Russia up north (brutal when he desperately needs to get Russia to fight England), and has too many units wrapped up in what will likely be a losing battle to EF in the west. Italy has stabbed Austria, and is possibly cultivating a productive alliance with Turkey, but at the cost of being completely unprepared for the very obvious assault that France is about to launch by 1903 at the latest.
An AAR in pictures without bothering to read anything in messages or public press


France is about to stab England (possible but dubious) or much likelier, launch a massive assault into southern waters
Turkey just built a navy in Smyrna, which is a good sign Italy is screwed on both sides (how Italy didn't insist on an army build from Turkey as part of an alliance agreement is beyond me tbh)
Russia made the most non-commital build possible when he basically always needs to put that build into STP and stymie England
Germany made double army builds which means he's going after Russia even though Russia has problems everywhere and EF are not only getting along but growing, and the smoother the sailing gets for those two, the nastier it gets for almost everyone else
Austria's just dead in the water

Germany goes monumentally hard after Russia and just got mini-stabbed by Pic-Bur unless he really sucks at negotiating troop movement (and why in the WORLD wasn't Belgium part of the price of a WT agreement given that WT's are crap for Germany 90% of the time, with the other 10% being when E or F is just gonna stab the other instead?)
Italy's messing around in Balkans despite the massive French threat and failed AGAIN to grab the vital Tunis build
Russia's a season too late to get his unit into STP and will likely cede STP to the Brits
Austria's even more deader in the water

So FRANCE gets Belgium, ENGLAND gets Sweden, and Germany gets all of his units massively out of position so he can't defend himself from the nearly inevitable stab. Why would EF ever bother attackign each other when sweeping up Germany would be so much easier?
The Austrian collapse is complete
Turkey is growing but at heavy cost, unless he's got a rock solid agreemnet with EF
Italy finally realizes he needs to be in Tunis about 2 turns too late.
EF are certainly doing well though!

England has ceded a territory to France in exchange for peace and good relations, the sort of thign that should be a massive alarm bell to everyone else, and oh yeah he's gonna obliterate STP real soon since Russia lacks the bodies to defend it
Germany can't defend Holland, can barely defend Kiel, and has almost no room for easy growth
France can swarm all over Italy for all sorts of easy growth
Turkey's growing but far too slow, and any further growth will come at the expense of R or I, both of which are vital to slow down EF
EF are certainly doing well though!

Germany is playing patsy for EF at this point, completely abandoning all defenses and moving his units even further east. Oh yeah and France tossed a unit into Burgundy, which is a sure sign that a stab will happen at the precise moment that France wishes it to happen (DMZ's are VITAL in a functional alliance)
Turkey makes a crappy stab of Russia which means that Russia will collapse quickly against the EG assult
France is already overrunning Italy and it's still 1903
EF are certainly doing well though!

Germany lucks into France not stabbing this turn (then again France didn't need to)
Fresh from making a terrible stab of Russia, Turkey decides to (presumably) make a terrible stab of Italy over ION while somehow working with Italy to convoy an army to Apu. I have no idea what Turkey is thinking here.
Russia's dead in the water unless he can convince Turkey AND Germany to back off (Germany helping Russia into Sweden or vice versa, would have helpted stymie England, instead they're continuing to fight each other)... and even there it's really really hard.
Italy's largely overrun and ought to die before long.
EF are certainly doing well though!

France builds an army in Paris, and now can just waltz into Ruhr, Munich, or anywhere else she wants (a Marseilles navy build at least would have made Germany a bit less of a really really easy target)
England can move NWG to NTH and be in position to convoy to Den, Hol, Kiel, etc whenever he wants
Germany got no builds and has mediocre prospects for growing
Turkey got a largely useless army build at hte cost of destroying his potential ally
Russia destroyed a vital fleet up north
EF are certainly doing well though!

France finally stabs Germany
England getting into NTH ought be worrisome for Germany, though at least from German perspective he's focusing up north. Then again, England is the one who's set up to gain from Russia's corpse, leaving Germany in pretty ??? position
Russia is even deader than before
Italy is helping France stab Germany, I guess at this point some kind of desperate measure is warranted
Turkey stabs Russia even harder, in for a dime in for a dollar on this play I guess.
EF are certainly doing well though!

France plunges the knife into Germany
England actually helps Germany into Moscow, and makes moves up north that MIGHT signal a realignment of EG against F should the opportunity be seized
I have no idea what Turkey is doing, helping Italy then trying to stab him over Serbia?
That bit about Italy helping France against Germany didn't create any loyalty from France
EF are certainly doing well though!
it goes on but I'm not sure much is interesting. Germany stays the ally of EF despite getting stabbed over Munich (and doesn't even get it back for his efforts!!!!!!), Turkey grows slowly at the cost of having any friends at all, EF was fake fighting or makes up, and they just keep growing bigger and bigger