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Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 15 Nov 2018, 13:25
by Emma72
sjg11 wrote:So another Premier League season starts tomorrow and as ever here is my predicted table for the season:

1. Liverpool- I think Liverpool have had a really good transfer window and have pretty much improved every area of the side they needed to improve. Combine this with the fact that Klopp's system really started to click during the second half of last season and I think that Liverpool may win the title next year.
2. Manchester City- I strongly considered breaking my rule never to back last year's champions with this City team. But their transfer window does follow the pattern of previous champions in terms of being highly underwhelming. I... don't really think Mahrez is needed at City, I think he was very expensive and I think that he's probably not going to be at his peak for much longer either. If they'd signed Jorginho I'd still have them top but they needed a DM to take some of the pressure off of Fernandinho this season and they haven't done it. A back-up LB for Mendy wouldn't have hurt either.
3. Manchester United- I'll admit that I was tempted to put United lower given that Mourinho is in the middle of his third season meltdown at the moment. But this United squad should be good enough to comfortably finish in the top 4 again. If Jose stops whinging and starts being the manager he can be again, they may well challenge for the title and may even win it.
4. Tottenham- More of the same for Spurs. Not good enough to win the title or come particularly close but they should still be good enough to seal a top 4 spot. They may well win one of the Cups too.
5. Arsenal- I'm expecting a better season than last year. I reckon we'll really push Spurs and maybe United in the race for the top 4. The atmosphere around the club seems better than it's been for a couple of seasons and this summer's defensive reinforcements were sorely needed. We're not ready to challenge for the title yet but a top 4 challenge seems reasonable.
6. Chelsea- Chelsea have not had a good pre-season. It took them far too long to replace Conte with Sarri and their signings haven't been exceptional either. Hazard also looks like he wants to leave which may well blunt their attacking play somewhat. Morata is also still not good enough as a ST. Plus they're going to have to spend the first couple of months adapting to Sarri's system which is completely different to Conte's. Still, Sarri is a good manager and Jorginho's a very good signing at CM.
7. Everton- Should be the same as usual for Everton. Silva's a decent manager but may well get his head turned if he starts doing well. They don't have enough to challenge the top 6 but they should have enough to finish in the 7th/8th region. Their defence needs a revamp sooner rather than later but their attacking players should have significantly more joy this season.
8. Leicester- Still a decent squad, even without Mahrez although they lack depth in a couple of positions. Still, their first XI is more than good enough to see them out of any relegation danger.
9. West Ham- I think West Ham have got a very good manager in Pellegrini and their signings look decent. They should avoid a relegation scrap this season. But let's face it, it IS West Ham so who knows what will actually happen?
10. Southampton- Their squad is better than their finish last year would suggest. I'm expecting them to move back to being a decent midtable side this season. They still need another striker to take the goalscoring burden off of Charlie Austin though.
11. Crystal Palace- Palace are the perfect club for Hodgson in terms of league position, style of play and ambition. They've also had a solid transfer window. This should be a good midtable season for Palace and they should avoid the struggles of the first half of last season.
12. Wolves- Wolves were very impressive when they blitzed the Championship last season plus with their contacts in the game I can't really see them dropping back to the Championship this season, particularly with Nuno in charge who's a very good manager for a lower/mid-level Prem side. I'm really excited to see what Ruben Neves can do in the Prem.
13. Newcastle- They will be fine this season under Benitez. I do expect Benitez to leave at the end of this season though so they could be in trouble next season. To be fair though I don't think their transfer window has been as bad as it's been made out to be. Schar is a decent CB and Muto is a decent attacking option while Rondon is an upgrade on Gayle and Joselu (although tbf you could probably stick my cat up front and it would do a better job than Joselu). Dubravka and Kenedy were also really impressive last season and it was good to see their loans being made permanent. I don't see any reason to tip Newcastle to drop down.
14. Fulham- I initially had them lower down on account of their shaky defence but they've had a really good transfer window. Chambers, Seri, Mawson and Le Marchand should largely solve their defensive issues and the mixture of a strong attacking side and a very good manager in Jokanovic suggests they won't be in a relegation scrap. I would currently be surprised if they went down.
15. Watford- As ever they've brought in a load of players and are starting the season with a new manager. As ever it should be enough to see them staying up. Although I think they'll be closer to the drop than they've been for a little while. For me Watford are the first serious relegation candidate.
16. Bournemouth- I think this season is going to be a real struggle for Bournemouth. Some of their momentum has gone. Still, they have a decent young squad and Howe is a good enough manager that I think they'll stay up.
17. Brighton- They've had a solid window, they have a really well-balanced squad and a very competent, settled manager in Chris Hughton. For Brighton this season will also be about survival but they should have enough to push themselves over the line.
18. Burnley- Burnley have a tiring style of play, a squad which is fairly thin and Europa League football to contend with. I think they may well drop down this season when I factor in the impact which the Europa League tends to have on a side's league performance.
19. Huddersfield- Still a well-run side with a good manager. However I don't think they have enough firepower to stay up again. Plus I can't see three teams being as shambolically run as Stoke, West Brom and Swansea were last season.
20. Cardiff- Neil Warnock has never been able to be successful in the top flight. I see no reason why that would change with a somewhat limited Cardiff side. They will probably go down this season.

Crazy how accurate your predictions have been so far when it comes to the TOP5. Well, except for ManU, they have been really disappointing so far.
Manchester City has been exceptionally impressive. A well deserved top spot after the first ten rounds.

Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 16 Nov 2018, 01:04
by Custer
Go Wolves Go!


Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 16 Nov 2018, 01:27
by Jegpeg
Emma72 wrote:Crazy how accurate your predictions have been so far when it comes to the TOP5. Well, except for ManU, they have been really disappointing so far.
Manchester City has been exceptionally impressive. A well deserved top spot after the first ten rounds.

It isn't particularly crazy, the "big 6" have so much more money they consistently finish above the rest apart from the odd slip up. I would argue that my predictions are even more accurate as I had Man City above Liverpool and Chelsea as the top London club (above Spurs and Arsenal)

I did actually also flag a risk of Man Utd under-performing, there were rumours of the players not being happy with Mourinho, something which also happened when he was at Chelsea (also in his third season) and he was sacked mid season with the team in the bottom half of the table.

Outside the big 6 things get much more difficult to predict. Sjg and I both predicted Bournemouth ans Watford would well down the bottom half of the table where at the moment they are the best of the rest.

Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 22 Dec 2018, 19:33
by sjg11
Was the Premier League drunk today or something? Weird set of results...

Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 23 Dec 2018, 01:50
by UFO Fever
I know there's no way they do it, but last I checked Man U has like 150:1 odds to win the League. Is that worth a $2 bet? Is hope even THAT dead?

Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2018, 01:54
by sjg11
UFO Fever wrote:I know there's no way they do it, but last I checked Man U has like 150:1 odds to win the League. Is that worth a $2 bet? Is hope even THAT dead?

No. It's not. Nobody has pulled that type of deficit back in the Premier League era.

Re: Premier League 2018/19

PostPosted: 27 Dec 2018, 00:47
by Jegpeg
Just because it hasn't happened in 25 years doesn't mean that there is less than a 1 in 150 chance of it happening this year but think about what would need to happen for Man Utd to win the league. As we are half way through the season it makes the maths a little easier.

They would need to have a spectacular second half of the season, This is obviously the key assumption as it sets the target for other clubs to fail to beat so I will look at 2 alternatives.
Scenario A: Man Utd end the season as well as Liverpool started it getting 51 out of a possible 57 points on their last 19 games
Scenario B: Man Utd equal the first half of City's 2017/8 season dropping just 2 points for the rest of the season.

In my opinion even for a rejuvenated team scenario A is a long shot. Until last season noone had scored more than 95 points in a season so to get more than 50 in a half season is very hard. I think I would be generous if I said it was a 50-1 chance. Chelsea's first half of the season was far more dominate than any other club has ever been so I would put scenario B at about 300-1 but you can make your own odds.

Under scenario A for Man Utd to win the league:
Liverpool would need to collapse to form worse than Man Utd's first half of the season (very unlikely)
and Spurs and Man City would both need to dip to less than 2 points a game (I would say each of these is less than 50:50)
You would also need Chelsea and Arsenal not to finish strongly (though it is fairly likely neither of them get to 83 points)

Under Scenario B:
Liverpool would need to get less than 2 points a game
And Spurs and Chelsea would both have to get less points in the 2nd half of the season than the first.

Overall I would say 500-1 for Man Utd to win the league is probably about fair odds.