Premier League 2017/18

Anything you want to talk about.

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby Jegpeg » 12 Dec 2017, 04:02

V wrote:A few comments on this season.
OK let’s get rid of the West Ham bit first. My team have been terrible, but against all odds Moyes looks to be getting some performance out of the squad & a mid table relegation avoidance season would make me very happy now.
Man City are simply outplaying everyone, so the title is as good as decided.
Following our win vs Chelsea this w/e, I was encouraged to watch all the other games (unusual for me) & was amazed at how poor most teams were. West Ham played well but were flattered a bit, by a poor Chelsea. Arsenal vs Southampton was dreadful! Neither of those teams deserves to win anything based on that effort. Manchester United were equally uninspiring & how their coach gets away with those tactics, at home vs the league leaders in the “Theatre of Dreams”, I don’t know! Hardly in the SAF mold. Liverpool looked half decent vs Everton. Spurs have decided to do their end of season meltdown early this year, so have become irrelevant.
So, to summarise, with Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs & Chelsea all crap this year, the fact City are the favourites would be inevitable even if they were not so stunning as they happen to be right now. Only Liverpool have a prayer of making it look remotely like a title race. I’d be interested in the views of fans for the various clubs mentioned, but for me they all looked very dodgy & a team like Burnley could easily make Europe this year faced with that “top 6” opposition.


I am not convinced, remember this was a week when the big clubs have had European games while those not in Europe have had all week to prepare, I also think it was a bit of a one off.
Regarding the Man United tactics, I think starting Lindgard, Martial, Rashford and Lukaku made it clear Mourinho wanted to attack City, it is just that city didn't let them I think it is more the players didn't do what was expected of them rather than them being told to park the bus.

Man City have been scary good this season, comparisons have been made to the Arsenal invincibles but by this time of the season Arsenal had already drawn 5 games compared to Cities 1. It is quite possible that City could slip up to a defeat but I expect Chelsea's record of 95 points to be easily beaten.

Spurs have had a bad run, but they had a big win this weekend which will help with confidence and should win against Brighton. I don't think there is much between them, United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea and they could finish in any order, as soon as one puts in a run and looks good they suddenly unexpectedly lose (like Chelsea last weekend). They all have weaknesses but are all much stronger than the rest of the premier league, so I would be surprised is they don't finish in the top 6.

To say "Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs & Chelsea all c*** this year" is clearly not true:
United and Spurs won there champions league Groups with Chelsea only being second to Roma on head to head. (For comparison we haven't had all our teams qualify in the Champions league since 2013 and even then we had 2 second places) Arsenal also won their group in the Europa league
They are all in the top 6 in the Premier league usually at this point in the season someone else is in amongst them.

Overall I think in the last few years no English team has been in the top tier of European teams along with Barca, Real, Bayern and Juve but all of the big clubs have been in the next tier in the top 15 or so European clubs. It looks as if City have made the step up to be Champions league contenders leaving the rest to look second rate in comparison.

Burnley have a great start but it is not unusual for a team to exceed expectations in the first half the season, sometimes they then like a stone, other times they regress back to their expected performance. I will predict they do the later and have mid table form for the rest of the season finishing somewhere between 7th and 9th.
Jegpeg
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: 08 Dec 2009, 20:56
Location: Scotland
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1125)
All-game rating: (1401)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby Jegpeg » 14 Dec 2017, 19:49

Just had a look at oddschecker for a top 6 finish.

You can get 50/1 for Burnley to finish in the top 6 (though some bookies are only offering 12/1), while the best you can get for any of the big 6 is Liverpool at 1/12, of your rubbish quartet the best you can get is Arsenal at 1/20.

While I think 50/1 on Burnley is pretty good odds I think it shows the clear gulf in quality between the big 6 in the rest, at least in the eyes of the betting public (otherwise there would be a rush of bets on Burnley and/or Leicester and there odds would shorten).
Jegpeg
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: 08 Dec 2009, 20:56
Location: Scotland
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1125)
All-game rating: (1401)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby V » 15 Dec 2017, 00:17

The challenge of your odds checker exercise is the obvious one of which of the 14 outsiders is the candidate for a bet. I wouldn’t know, but Burnley/Leicester/Everton are potential.

My point is that the top 6 are under par & someone will take advantage. The midweek games provided Man City & Chelsea appearing to deliver the goods, but a slightly different “quartet” this time were definitely dodgy. Neither Utd or Spurs were convincing against lowly opposition & neither Arsenal or Liverpool deserved more than the draws they got.

I have noticed the improvement in European competition results, but that doesn’t convince me that at least one (& maybe even two, but unlikely) “top 6” are not going to be top 6 this year.
Platinum Classicist
Voilà! In view, a humble vaudevillian veteran cast vicariously as both victim and villain by the vicissitudes of Fate. This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is a vestige of the vox populi, now vacant, vanished.
V
 
Posts: 479
Joined: 04 May 2014, 21:28
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: 1682
All-game rating: 1707
Timezone: GMT-7

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby Jegpeg » 15 Dec 2017, 13:41

I did a little analysis with the best bookies odds and their implied probabilities.

It turns out the expected number of big 6 teams in the top 6 is 5.78 and the expected number of the other 14 to make the top 6 is 0.12. I realise adds up to less than 6 which means, by taking the best odds across all bookies you could guarantee a tiny profit but I think it is reasonable to say it implies the chances of a smaller team making the big 6 is somewhere between 0.12 and 0.22, this is low considering it has happened about half the time historically implying the gap between the big 6 and the rest is larger this year:
Number of teams outside of "big 6" to finish in the top 6 each season since Man City's financial rise.
2009/10 0
2010/1 0
2011/2 1
2012/3 1
2013/4 1
2014/5 0
2015/6 2
2016/7 0
Jegpeg
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: 08 Dec 2009, 20:56
Location: Scotland
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1125)
All-game rating: (1401)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby Jegpeg » 18 Dec 2017, 23:58

Wouldn't it be fun if they applied some for the NFL rules to the Premier League

1. Managers are allowed to protest 2 referee decisions during the game, these go to video review.
2. Limited 25 man roster (I know the NFL is 53 but you have Offence, Defence and special teams in the NFL so I think the 25 European Roster is more appropriate.
3. You can have other players in your "practice squad" but any other team can take them to use in there 25 man roster (while you have to still pay there wages)
4. A salary cap that all teams would be able to pay.
5. Instead of transfer fees any on premiership team can elect to enter a draft held in the summer, the team finishing lowest in the league then gets first pick of those players, trades between clubs are allowed for draft picks but not for cash.
6. As the football season is too long and players get too tired playing too many games the league is reduced to playing 16 games.
7. The top 12 in the league have a knock-out post season coming top in the regular season means nothing other than home advantage in the play offs
8. In order to promote the game outside the UK the Premier league will pick a number of games to be played in China or France even if that does upset the fans who miss a home game reducing the total to 7.
Jegpeg
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: 08 Dec 2009, 20:56
Location: Scotland
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1125)
All-game rating: (1401)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby V » 19 Dec 2017, 02:57

Not in my opinion.
The EPL is a massive success against great opposition in the biggest sport in the world.
The NFL is a lesser success (financially) in a sport in which they have a virtual monopoly.
If anyone should be taking lessons it’s the NFL. Promotion/relegation for a start.
Think we can do without the rules you provide as examples above.

http://www.businessinsider.com/epl-vs-n ... ue-2014-11

http://www.the42.ie/football-clubs-nfl- ... 8-Jun2017/

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/english- ... -2017-uefa

Examples of comparative success provided above. One is very old data from 2013 which won’t take into account recent EPL TV deals. I suspect the revenue gap will be ever widening from here on in favour of EPL.
Platinum Classicist
Voilà! In view, a humble vaudevillian veteran cast vicariously as both victim and villain by the vicissitudes of Fate. This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is a vestige of the vox populi, now vacant, vanished.
V
 
Posts: 479
Joined: 04 May 2014, 21:28
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: 1682
All-game rating: 1707
Timezone: GMT-7

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby Jegpeg » 19 Dec 2017, 23:10

I was mainly thinking fun to imagine it rather than a serious suggestion but having said that I would like to challenge your comments.

In revenue terms the EFL is a big success worldwide, while it has world wide competition, it is a sport that is played extensively around the world so there is world wide interest in watching the best players. Historically and due to population size only the Spanish, Italian, German, English and possibly French leagues have been in a position to attract the best players in the world and the EPL and done a good job in winning that competition. One of your posts is about commercial revenue and I would say that is down to the clubs themselves rather than the EPL as an organisation, Manchester United get far more commercial revenue than Burnley.

The NFL are in a sport that is not traditionally been played outside the US, and initially their main competition was baseball, basketball and hockey, once they became the biggest sport in the US there was little room for growth there so have to try and create an interest in the sport outside the USA and to that end they are doing a good job.

What makes any company financially successful however is not revenue but profit on average an NFL team makes a profit of about $100m a year with the least profitable earning $41m and the most profitable earning $350m. On average Premier league clubs lost £6m in 2015/6 (the most recent data I can find) with Man Utd the most profitable (£49m) At the other end of the scale Aston Villa lost £81m much of it due to finishing bottom resulting in less TV revenue than expected and there player (transfer) values going down.

Bad performance does not hit profits as much in the NFL, commercial revenue might go down but TV revenue does not, on top of that doing badly allows you to pick the best new talent. Size of profit depends mostly on the ability to develop a brand (much like Man Utd have done) so the Cowboys and Patriots make huge profits and the Lions and Raiders have to make do with an amount which would only place then 2nd or 3rd in the Premier league.

Promotion / Relegation is terrible for profit, it might increase excitement and allows a Bournemouth a chance to reach the top but it means everyone is gambling getting promoted / not getting relegated. For the big clubs getting into and going deep in the champions league has a similar effect. The sport socialism in the NFL limits squad size and salaries to a level that all teams can make a good profit.

Football is different in that a salary cap in England would result in players all going to Spain or Italy where there is no cap. Most of the big clubs in Europe (at least outside England) want to get closer to the NFL model because it is more profitable. A closed league with guaranteed incomes, I am not sure if European law would allow things like a salary cap and a draft, it would be terrible for the clubs that don't make the super league but it would almost certainly increase the revenue as well as the profits of the teams that do get in.
Jegpeg
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: 08 Dec 2009, 20:56
Location: Scotland
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1125)
All-game rating: (1401)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Premier League 2017/18

Postby V » 20 Dec 2017, 03:17

I read through your response very carefully & found nothing significant with which to disagree & in doing so became even more convinced we want absolutely nothing to do with how the NFL conduct their league.

The EPL (being comparatively a new organisation) will in time make the NFL look insignificant by following the path it has already established. For all USA football (or soccer, as they love to refer to it) is occasionally mocked (& it does have it’s ups & downs) the MLS is still the rising star & will in time by emulating the EPL (not NFL) potentiality achieve great things.
I embrace your idea of the “fun” some NFL ideas could introduce to the serious business of football, but let’s start with something insignificant like a cup competition, for fun & let the EPL do it’s stuff.

I may well be an extreme case, but for me FIFA, UEFA the EFL & FA can all go to hell as far as their competitions are concerned & the only one of interest to me is the EPL. I admit I’m one of the few who don’t particularly enjoy World Cups, but the EPL is truly a league apart. The only one I watch, so God help me when West Ham get relegated one year...
Platinum Classicist
Voilà! In view, a humble vaudevillian veteran cast vicariously as both victim and villain by the vicissitudes of Fate. This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is a vestige of the vox populi, now vacant, vanished.
V
 
Posts: 479
Joined: 04 May 2014, 21:28
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: 1682
All-game rating: 1707
Timezone: GMT-7

Previous

Return to Off-topic

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests