AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Ceasars Geezers » 23 Apr 2018, 22:50

Jackalope wrote:Of course, I offered Italy this with two years left: guarantee yourself second with me a shot at soloing up north. I followed through and vacated Tri even when he built his army. But his skepticism allowed France to momentarily eclipse him and gave me a better shot at the solo than I would have had in the north. But all's well that ends well!


You did offer this. I was seriously going for it, until you declared war in SP06. Most of the time I did have trouble believing that you would not go for it. You were so close. :)
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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Cliff Dancer » 23 Apr 2018, 23:26

OK, well France here... very interesting game lol! I was surprised by a lot in the game, and will be the first to admit I don't think I adapted very well to the format. I also had this unfounded expectation that most people at a game like this would play very reasonably, but I was proven wrong many, many times.

Russia / Jackalope: Based on the complete dysfunction of the rest of the board, I thought you should have been able to pull off a solo. Fall of 06, I would have personally forced Bulgaria, and don't understand why you elected not to. I did not have an extreme amount of communication with you, but I would be very curious to see your messages as to how you approached your negotiations. Overall, a very good game on your part, and you deserved to top the board.

England / BigJ: I generally find breaking DMZs in 01 to be a poor strategy, and not because of the immediate gains, which at times can be good. I think if your fall convoy order in 01 had not been messed up, I would have likely ended along with Austria on a quick exit, and you may have ended a bit better. You did never give up, even when sitting on 2, and I think by the end we had a better understanding of each other.

Germany / willie23: I think your heart is definitely in the game, but you tend to fall victim to easy manipulation on the part of your "allies." Look at actions, not words, and that will tell you who's side you will end on. Also, you can't switch directions multiple times in a game and be very successful, especially in this short format. It's a matter of time (it takes a full game year to get to Warsaw, and from there, it take 2 game years to get back to Paris). We could have kept Russia to 16 if you hadn't grabbed Belgium at the end, and you would have ended at the same 1 center. I'm not exactly sure your reasoning for going with Italy, as I was very open with you on everything I was doing, and extremely upfront.

Italy / Caesars: I think a 2nd place finish is much too high for what you deserve, but well played stab at the end. I think it was very reckless as it risked a solo (especially seeing the many iterations of moves that would have given Russia 1 more center), but more power to you for pulling it off. The Russian stab on you earlier in the game was easily predicable, and you working with him to take out Turkey in 05 was premature. Wait until 06 at least if you're going to do that. Extremely reckless, and it is very surprising that Russia did not solo.

Also, as for who's most responsible for stopping a Russian solo, it is definitely and without question me. England was screaming at me for years to attack Germany, and I refused to do so since that would turn his full attention to the west and make a Russian solo an afterthought. The only reason I did move in that direction at all, which I explained to the board, was to keep a reckless Italian in line. And who is most responsible for Russia being so large, absolutely Italy (2nd culprit of course Germany, but oh well).

For my terrible play in 01, it's also a better finish than I deserve at 3rd.

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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Ceasars Geezers » 23 Apr 2018, 23:51

Cliff Dancer wrote:
Italy / Caesars: I think a 2nd place finish is much too high for what you deserve, but well played stab at the end. I think it was very reckless as it risked a solo (especially seeing the many iterations of moves that would have given Russia 1 more center), but more power to you for pulling it off. The Russian stab on you earlier in the game was easily predicable, and you working with him to take out Turkey in 05 was premature. Wait until 06 at least if you're going to do that. Extremely reckless, and it is very surprising that Russia did not solo.

Also, as for who's most responsible for stopping a Russian solo, it is definitely and without question me. England was screaming at me for years to attack Germany, and I refused to do so since that would turn his full attention to the west and make a Russian solo an afterthought. The only reason I did move in that direction at all, which I explained to the board, was to keep a reckless Italian in line. And who is most responsible for Russia being so large, absolutely Italy (2nd culprit of course Germany, but oh well).



Well I definitely agree with you about the final turn of the game. That was definitely reckless and risky of me. Had been working a lot, was tired from the game, and didn’t want third. Plus I had a pretty strong feeling that Russia wasn’t lying to me. So reckless, but not unfounded.

As for the turkey stab, I am sorry but I disagree there. It is very hard to coordinate moves when the major player in the scenario doesn’t respond until a few hours out. Plus I raised concerns about the convoy from the very beginning but no one actually answered my concerns. This led me to believe you guys were just trying to knock me out of second. At that time, based on all the evidence, I thought Jacks analysis of game theory was more compelling. He had generally not lied to me when going to that much effort in a message. Further, I really take against the “throwing the game” option. I understand that people do it, but I find it incredibly silly. If you were making those threats as a negotiation tactic then it’s fine.

Basically, I had reasons for all my moves. I think it’s a little unfair to say second was “much to high for what I deserve.” Come on. That’s uncalled for. If you are saying that Russia should have soloed and I should have gotten zero, then you are probably right, but it sounds like you are just saying I played overall terribly. I took some risks, yes, but I don’t believe I played badly in general.

I also don’t think you deserved lower either. In the last two years, you played great and helped get us all on board to stop the Russian. Well done there. You nearly got second as well, if it hadn’t been for a lucky shot by me.

No hard feelings here from me, I just want to explain my logic here.
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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby willie23 » 24 Apr 2018, 00:44

CliffDancer, a bit harsh there. Ceasars played very well, that’s why he pulled off second place...and you didn’t do too bad yourself, that’s why you got third place. I myself played pretty poor, and that shows in that I received only 2 points. I agree with NoPun, it was silly of me to help destroy him(Austria). The reason I allied with Italy(Ceasars) is that he was very easy to talk to and pleasant, he was not in a position to have any reason to stab me at any point, and I think we worked okay together. I also felt that I could use a close Ally that was a pro. The reason I struggled with being an Ally with France(CD) is that he was a bit pushy and hard to keep cordial with.

Let me say this: I was way out of my league here. I am a rookie no doubt. I have been on the site maybe two months and I have completed only two ranked games. So I am still learning how to detect a stab/true ally. Russia(Jack) was very friendly, smart, and was convincing about plans. He was someone that I would ally with any day of the week. I will often make an ally and stay with that person not based on personal gain but based on friendliness/how trustworthy they seem. I have a hard time stabbing people. That, I believe, is a flaw when it comes to diplomacy. If I had it to do over again I would have stabbed Russia when he took Vienna. That should have tipped me off. Jack just kept going though and pretended that it had not happened, even though I brought it up twice. Very good maneuvering on his part.

I think that I have a lot to learn from you guys. I appreciate you letting me play in the big leagues.

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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Ceasars Geezers » 24 Apr 2018, 01:36

Cliff Dancer wrote:Also, as for who's most responsible for stopping a Russian solo, it is definitely and without question me. England was screaming at me for years to attack Germany, and I refused to do so since that would turn his full attention to the west and make a Russian solo an afterthought. The only reason I did move in that direction at all, which I explained to the board, was to keep a reckless Italian in line. And who is most responsible for Russia being so large, absolutely Italy (2nd culprit of course Germany, but oh well


Yea I can’t argue with that at all. France and England we’re definitely the biggest players in stopping Russia. In the end, you could say that we all might have lost if I hadn’t reached out for a last ditch alliance... ;)
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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby NoPunIn10Did » 24 Apr 2018, 02:13

Cliff Dancer wrote:Also, as for who's most responsible for stopping a Russian solo, it is definitely and without question me.


Well I think Austria deserves more credit for his invaluable advice and useful public press.

:D
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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Cliff Dancer » 25 Apr 2018, 03:12

Italy,
Perhaps harsh, and yes mostly I mean that Russia should have soloed - I am surprised that it didn't happe. The last move was excellent overall, but very risky. And I understand there are always reasonings for everything you do, I don't think you are playing blind by any means, it is just that you play with a massively different approach to the game. Without your play, Russia wouldn't have been close to a solo. And not your play over a season or two, your play over the course of 3-4 game years at least. There were many moves that made no sense to me, and the reason I ended up retreating back to myself before you stabbed Turkey is that I realized 1) I was extremely ineffective in convincing you of the convoy, and 2) you were wholeheartedly disinterested (lol can't blame you there)

Germany,
I am curious where I came off as off-putting (other than of course this forum!). I'll be sure to go back and look at message history. I think overall I don't necessarily view "warmth" of a message as an overall indicator of who to ally with, it's more 1) who doesn't lie to me and 2) what does the board call for. Any insight you can offer I would really appreciate.

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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Ceasars Geezers » 25 Apr 2018, 03:51

Cliff Dancer wrote:Italy,
Perhaps harsh, and yes mostly I mean that Russia should have soloed - I am surprised that it didn't happe. The last move was excellent overall, but very risky. And I understand there are always reasonings for everything you do, I don't think you are playing blind by any means, it is just that you play with a massively different approach to the game. Without your play, Russia wouldn't have been close to a solo. And not your play over a season or two, your play over the course of 3-4 game years at least. There were many moves that made no sense to me, and the reason I ended up retreating back to myself before you stabbed Turkey is that I realized 1) I was extremely ineffective in convincing you of the convoy, and 2) you were wholeheartedly disinterested (lol can't blame you there)


Thanks for the clarification here. I appreciate you reframing it in different way. I would be curious to hear you responses to my specific reasoning mentioned in my AAR. In general for me, I try to do whatever I can to get the best result possible. I attempt to play with logic, and try to remove emotion. For example, after the first Russian stab, you said, “where is your sense of vengeance?” Or something like that. This concept has never really held weight for me in diplomacy. If rejoining my stabber is the best option, then i am going to do it. At that time, had I went with convoy, I’d be sitting with you completely surrounding me, virtually guaranteeing i did not win second. So I sided with Russia. What’s your opinion on that reasoning specifically?

Thanks and I enjoy the discussion.
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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby Cliff Dancer » 25 Apr 2018, 18:09

Caesar,

While I don't think taking out Turkey for extra centers is a bad thing, I just think it was bad at that moment. Let's posture that instead you work with Turkey to help him hold all his centers. I likely hold back (you can't be guaranteed of this of course, but my spring orders indicated that may be the case). And then in 07, you grab a few of Turkeys centers to solidify your 2nd place finish. That makes a lot of sense to me, and is very low risk overall (Russia ending at likely 15 in that case). To accelerate the plan as you did, you guaranteed a much larger Russian threat, as well as greatly weakened faith in the "Grand Alliance" to stop him.

So the logic of maximizing gains should be tempered slightly depending on board state in CliffDancer logic.

CD
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Re: AAR: 141034. C-Diplo Series 2018

Postby NoPunIn10Did » 25 Apr 2018, 18:56

Cliff Dancer wrote:Caesar,

While I don't think taking out Turkey for extra centers is a bad thing, I just think it was bad at that moment. Let's posture that instead you work with Turkey to help him hold all his centers. I likely hold back (you can't be guaranteed of this of course, but my spring orders indicated that may be the case). And then in 07, you grab a few of Turkeys centers to solidify your 2nd place finish. That makes a lot of sense to me, and is very low risk overall (Russia ending at likely 15 in that case). To accelerate the plan as you did, you guaranteed a much larger Russian threat, as well as greatly weakened faith in the "Grand Alliance" to stop him.

So the logic of maximizing gains should be tempered slightly depending on board state in CliffDancer logic.

CD


I find this whole discussion fascinating. Part of what I hope C-Diplo will bring to players is this exact dilemma:
“Assuming I am not the solo threat, how many SCs can I grab before 1907 without letting someone else solo?”

In traditional Dip, endgame dilemmas are similar, but it’s a lot easier to ask “Would this move risk the solo eventually?” rather than “Would this move risk the solo in X years?”

Likewise, if scoring is omitted (or is purely draw-based, as it is on the site), there’s often no value to breaking a stop-the-leader alliance.
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