Spring 1909

Variant in which random spaces become black holes turn by turn. Introduced by Pedros from a variety of older, similar games and GMd by Pedros. Winner: Radical Pumpkin (Italy)
Enjoyment rating: :D :D :D :)

Spring 1909

Postby Pedros » 04 Nov 2012, 11:10

NMRs from both Germany and Russia this time, but no immediate loss for either. bss - that's your second and next time you're out.

Lots of movement but few real battles. No retreats, so we move straight to the Fall; France suffers another loss however - it's SC in Spain is black-holed, although the fleet escaped just in time! Orders for Fall 1909 by 0900 GMT (0400 EDT) please on Wednesday 7 November

Black Hole.gif
Black Hole.gif (33.74 KiB) Viewed 1743 times

France (Janepeg : NMRs 0)
Par - MAO : Resolved
Spa - GOL : Resolved
WMed S Par - MAO : Cut from Tunis
Tus - Ven : Bounced
Mar S Tus - Ven : Cut from Tyrolia
Ruh S Mun : Resolved
NWG - BAR : Bounced
Nwy S Swe : Resolved
Den S Nwy : Resolved
Kie - Mos : Bounced
Mun S Ber : Cut from Galicia
Ber S Den : Cut from Barents Sea

Germany (bluestreaksoccer: NMRs 2)
NMR

Italy (Radical Pumpkin : NMRs 0)
A Pru S Mos-Kie X
F BAR-Ber : Bounced
A Gal-Mun : Bounced 2-2
A Vie S Gal-Mun : Failed
A Tyr-Mar : Bounced
A Ven S Tyr-Mar : Cut from Tuscany
F TYS-Rom : Resolved
F ION-TYS : Resolved
F Tun-WES : Bounced
A Bul-Ser : Resolved
F Con-AEG : Resolved
F Smy-EAS : Resolved

Austria (Kithchener : NMRs 0)
Sweden support Berlin to hold : Resolved

Russia (demmahom : NMRs 1)
NMR
"Sooner or later, one of us will stab the other. But for now we're both better off as allies" (kininvie)
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Kithchener » 04 Nov 2012, 11:38

Even though he's sort of winning, France is really getting screwed by black holes
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Jegpeg » 04 Nov 2012, 12:13

Kithchener wrote:Even though he's sort of winning, France is really getting screwed by black holes


I'm not sure about the first part I was thinking that while I had more SCs Italy was in the better position and they balanced out now we are equal on SCs I would make RP favorite.

Not sure if Pedros is punishing me for being cheeky with the comment with my last set of orders
And I hope you are going to balance things out after the devastating black hole last season. Rome would be good especially if there is an Italian unit there.

(Yes I know they were drawn in advance)
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Pedros » 04 Nov 2012, 12:36

At the risk of stepping outside my neutral and largely non-commenting role, at present we are down to 58 spaces, of which 5 are exempt. The area inside what I'd see as France's reasonably secure boundaries numbers 33 spaces if I've counted aright. Somewhere in there would get hit more than half the time if marsman's averages worked. Admittedly Brest and Spain were a bit harsh, but out of the 33 there were 13 SCs before Brest went.
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Jegpeg » 04 Nov 2012, 18:55

Pedros wrote:At the risk of stepping outside my neutral and largely non-commenting role, at present we are down to 58 spaces, of which 5 are exempt. The area inside what I'd see as France's reasonably secure boundaries numbers 33 spaces if I've counted aright. Somewhere in there would get hit more than half the time if marsman's averages worked. Admittedly Brest and Spain were a bit harsh, but out of the 33 there were 13 SCs before Brest went.


The point I was making is there have been 4 SCs black holed so far, One was held by Russia at the time (StP) and 3 were held by me (Hol, Bre and Spa). All that Italy (my main rival for the win) has lost so far is a (replaceable) army in Pie, something that resulted in him gaining Mar (due to bad guessing/tactics by me). I realise the chances of me losing 2 centres in successive turns at a little under 6.5% is hardly staggering odds but it is enough to think the RNGs have a grudge for you.

As far as non SCs go they can work either way losing Gascony probably worked in my favour, if NAO had gone this time it would have helped me and places like Wal and Irish sea wouldn't have made any difference. Losing a unit can hurt but IMO usually less than losing any SC (and losing home SCs hurt even more)
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Pedros » 04 Nov 2012, 19:47

:cry:
"Sooner or later, one of us will stab the other. But for now we're both better off as allies" (kininvie)
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby bluestreaksoccer » 05 Nov 2012, 04:19

I missed the dealine during the night....sorry. :cry:
"LIVE. DIE. REPEAT" -how I play diplomacy
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Pedros » 05 Nov 2012, 11:23

Get provisionals in early is how I (usually!) manage to avoid that
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Radical Pumpkin » 06 Nov 2012, 07:31

Regarding the burden of black holes: IMO, it's not obvious whether non-SC holes near one's own territory are an advantage or a disadvantage, and if I remember correctly, France was compensated for his first black hole in Hol. So I'd say the distribution of the black hole "burden" was pretty even until recently. The latest two SC's for France definitely swing things, though. After the black hole appeared in Pie, I messaged Janepeg saying I thought the game was done, just because I didn't think I'd be able to rush enough units home to defend the boot in time. That was obviously too strong a conclusion, but I do think Janepeg had a decided advantage (earned through gameplay) until the last couple of turns. Now... well, I'd still trade positions, but maybe that's me being pessimistic.

OTOH, none of us should be under the illusion that this variant is "fair." It surely has a lot of potential for randomness, way more than has appeared in this playthrough. E.g., just imagine Austria losing an army to a Black Hole in Trieste after S1901!
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Re: Spring 1909

Postby Kithchener » 06 Nov 2012, 08:47

Radical Pumpkin wrote:Regarding the burden of black holes: IMO, it's not obvious whether non-SC holes near one's own territory are an advantage or a disadvantage, and if I remember correctly, France was compensated for his first black hole in Hol. So I'd say the distribution of the black hole "burden" was pretty even until recently. The latest two SC's for France definitely swing things, though. After the black hole appeared in Pie, I messaged Janepeg saying I thought the game was done, just because I didn't think I'd be able to rush enough units home to defend the boot in time. That was obviously too strong a conclusion, but I do think Janepeg had a decided advantage (earned through gameplay) until the last couple of turns. Now... well, I'd still trade positions, but maybe that's me being pessimistic.

OTOH, none of us should be under the illusion that this variant is "fair." It surely has a lot of potential for randomness, way more than has appeared in this playthrough. E.g., just imagine Austria losing an army to a Black Hole in Trieste after S1901!


That would be a disadvantage for you :lol:
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