Mafia IV: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby Lord S » 29 May 2009, 11:21

There are 7 people alive, with 2 infected based on the number killed last night.

If we don't lynch someone today then we will lose another 2 in the night. Making it 3:2 (townie:mafia). Then we will have to lynch a mafia every turn to win.

If we lynch a mafia today then we only lose one at night. Making it 4:1. And we can get one lynch wrong after that.

If we lynch a townie today then we lose two at night making it 2:2 and we lose.

These don't take into account the doctor. Can I check a rule please Firestorm? If the doctor protects someone and both the doctor and that person are chosen for killing that night, then do they both die or is it just the doctor that dies? A simpler rephrasing of that could be; if I doctor dies in the night, does he still protect?

We need to know this to figure out if the doctor is still alive.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby metallord99 » 29 May 2009, 14:59

Changing vote to Lord S.
I think the mafia will gain more by knowing if the doctor is still alive.
and it looks like he really wants someone hanged tonight, I guess we aren't even close in our votes to an infected so he wants to make sure a townie dies and then we are screwed.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby Lord S » 29 May 2009, 17:53

I guess I'll change my vote to metallord99 then.

I wasn't saying that I wanted someone hanged tonight, because there is a high chance that we will lose straight away. If we don't vote for someone then we definitely won't lose this night and we will have another clue to work with. Sorry if that conclusion wasn't clear in my last post, I didn't realise that it needed explaining.

It is useful for us to know if the doctor is still alive to be able to estimate how many turns we have left to catch the infected. And I for one like to know what all of the rules are so that I can make more informed choices.

metallord99 wrote:Changing vote to Lord She wants to make sure a townie dies and then we are screwed.


No I don't, I covered that possibility in a negative light in my last post:

Lord S wrote:If we lynch a townie today then we lose two at night making it 2:2 and we lose.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby metallord99 » 29 May 2009, 18:54

You're saying you don't want to hang someone with no reason because if it's a townie then we certaintly lose, but you vote me and as of now I will get hanged. and your only reason is thaat I voted for you, not that you think I am mafia.
this makes me believ even more that you are an infected.

guys if you don't start taking action here I will be the one to die and then the mafia wins.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby Firestorm94 » 29 May 2009, 18:56

The doctor would save the person they're protecting, but they would die.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby Lord S » 29 May 2009, 19:08

I vote for you, not to get you lynched, but to make it less likely that anyone (particularly me) will be lynched. I have no idea if you are infected, but I can say the same thing about everybody here. At the moment you are my prime suspect because you have accused me without adequate reasoning, which I'm sure you can see isn't very pro-town.

But it is certainly not enough to get you lynched, so if somebody else votes for you then I will just change my vote.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby infinity8ball » 29 May 2009, 20:55

Holy cow, TWO victims during the night? Or is only ONE of them actually infected? Since, after all, one statement is a lie and the other a truth? (Or if I recall correctly, they BOTH could be truths, one truth is a minimum)
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby infinity8ball » 29 May 2009, 21:11

infinity8ball-no reference
raphtown-hinted at night 2 (riff-raff)
Flatley-hinted at night 2 (flattened)
ak47-hinted at night 2 (gunned down)
Lord S-hinted at night 1 and night 2 (Great leader + lord)
metallord99-as above
Zander_The_Great-hinted at night 1 (Great leader)

Clues:
"Firestorm94 was killed by a great leader."
"All signs point to connect4 being flattened by a ME guy."
"Led by their lord the riff-raff of the town gunned down nickjb3."

When I look over the clues, here's what I'm thinking: #1 and #3 are fake. Here's why:
If I was a mafia, I'd want to spread the doubt around as much as possible, right? How would I do that best? By getting as many possible suspects mixed in together to hide my real intentions. Which one(s) do this? #3 is the obvious lie spreader. It continues the Lord theme (casting doubt on 4 people... 3 now), tosses in riff-raff (1 more in raphtown), and lastly a gunner (ak47). That's a clue that hints at 5 people, but 6 from before. How could that POSSIBLY be true? We'd have to have at least 3 mafia (riff, ak, and 1 more) but that isn't the case. It's a total lie, which leads me to believe that the first night was a lie as well (since the Lord's theme, if in a lie, would mean it was also a lie, and so the first night is a lie).

This means that the signs pointing (not sure who this is pointing too really, which makes the argument for it being true... it has a narrow focus and can't have false leads) to someone being flattened (flatley) by a ME guy (metallord or ak47 by admission).

Now If you don't buy my reasoning that it was a lie the first night (as proven by #3 being a lie), then the signs all point towards metallord, as ak47 would have us believe. However if you DO believe my logic about the clues 1 and 3 being false, then it isn't metallord who is guilty. That leaves just ak47 and flatley left to be accused.

As Metallord pointed out, the whole clue about the ME thing is something probably only the creator would have understood, so I'm going to vote for ak47 as a mafia, and then if I'm right (and we've only got one shot to find out), flatley is the next to burn.

**EDIT** Flatley may be innocent in all of this, given how double hints can be given due to the wording in the examples firestorm gave us. Therefore if AK47 is guilty (and I think he is on multiple levels), we need not necessarily kill flatley without seeing the next clue. Also notice how "lord" is lower case, so as to cast double suspicion on metallord instead of Lord_S. But I think the deal sealer will be just who the "signs pointing" refers too.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby Flatley » 29 May 2009, 21:23

Firestorm94 wrote:"All signs point to connect4 being flattened by a ME guy."
"Led by their lord the riff-raff of the town gunned down nickjb3."
Remember: at least one of these clues points at an infected. It may have frames on other players included, but someone mentioned in these clues is infected.

And also:
Firestorm94 wrote:"Firestorm94 was killed by a great leader."


Here's what we have to work with. The revelation that each infected can kill their own person is pretty startling. If we do things exactly right, we can win. If we screw up even a little bit, we're screwed. So here are some things to note (thinking aloud time):

1) The first night's clue strongly implied Zander, Muffley, Lord S, and Metallord. It also has a weaker implication of myself (great leader = highest ranked player = me), deanchuk (great leader = most forum posts = deanchuk at 1130), and a stretch of infinity8ball (six solo wins, best of all participants). I can't find any correlation to connect4, nickjb3, raphtown, or ak47.
2) The first clue from the second night's killing points to a helluva lot of us: myself (flattened... very clever, by the way. Had I not ever gone to 2nd grade, I'm sure I'd never had heard that before. :roll: ), Metallord99 (Middle East player), ak47 (also Middle East player), and deanchuk (an Israelite, if I'm not mistaken). No discernable connection to infinity8ball, raphtown, Zander_the_Great, and Lord S.
3) The second clue from the second night's killing implies Lord S, metallord99 (both of them with "lord" in their name), raphtown (rif-raff, town), and ak47 (gunned down). No links to infinity8ball, myself, Zander_the_Great, and deanchuk.

Based on the above comments, here is how many times people have been implied in the hints (in order of appearance on page 1):
infinity8ball - 1, night 1
connect4- killed
nickjb3- killed
raphtown - 1, night 2
Flatley - 2, night 1 and night 2
ak47 - 2, night 2 twice
Lord S - 2, night 1 and night 2
metallord99 - 3, all hints
Zander_The_Great - 1, night 1
deanchuk - 2, night 1 and night 2
President Muffley- lynched

Granted, I included some of the more flimsy connections, but like firestorm said, anything can go, so I don't want to leave anything unturned.

I don't quite know what to make of this just yet. I need to reread everything that happened to date and really study how people acted, reacted, and voted. That being said, I will vote this turn. Sitting on our hands will leave the initiative with the infected.
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Re: Mafia 4: Mafia in space!(confirm here, too)

Postby Flatley » 29 May 2009, 21:25

infinity8ball wrote:This means that the signs pointing (not sure who this is pointing too really, which makes the argument for it being true... it has a narrow focus and can't have false leads) to someone being flattened (flatley) by a ME guy (metallord or ak47 by admission).

Ha. Looks like I wasn't the only one who wanted to draft a long analysis. I just wanted to point out that, in the clue mentioned above, we've been overlooking deanchuk, who is from the Middle East. I'm not saying I think he's infected, but I don't think we can afford to overlook any clues.

EDIT: Ha, forgot deanchuk already withdrew from the game. But at least I was right: he WAS infected!
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