infinity8ball wrote:Reason 3) - Can't find Lord S. He's been AFK, which means I'm pretty sure he's innocent. Why miss the first day if you're mafia, and have so much to lose?

Sorry about that, end of college/my 18th Birthday celebration. Lots of pubs which needed to be emptied etc. The upshot of which meant that I have been out of it for a fair amount of this morning.

Lets do the maths (notice the S in maths

), with the two states of statement being either True or False, let us assume for now that there is an equal chance of either statement.

Also let us just do it for finding the first infected.

If the statement is true (1/2 chance) then the only real candidates for a "Great Leader" are myself, President and Zander. With a 1/3 chance each.

If it is false 1/2 then there is a 1/9 chance of someone being the first infected.

That means that the chances of me, Pres or Zander being the first infected are 1/2*1/3+1/2*1/9 each. Which comes out as 2/9 each. In other words, based on a few acceptable assumptions, the chances that the hinted group of us containing the first infected is 2/3.

I say we go for either Lord S, President Muffley or Zander. It is probably worth mentioning that I don't buy into the idea that a Great Leader applies to anyone other than these three.

Out of the above group my vote is for

President Muffley.