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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 24 Dec 2019, 23:03
by lecrae
Since my vote was more an emotional reaction at the time, and I only see kim within a kim/sjg scumteam, my one should definitely be on Sjg11 nonetheless.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 24 Dec 2019, 23:37
by Blackswimmer
Lecrae, I don't have time to go over that megapost now, but will try to take a look tomorrow.

I'm not shadow, BTW.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 24 Dec 2019, 23:52
by kimpossible
In no particular order:

My 3:2 realization did not hinge on a single scum pair. It assumed Aes, Joe, and Nook were town, along with Justy or really anyone Joe shot though at the time I was (I still believe correctly) maintaining he was the best vig shot. I don't know where you're getting it from that I assumed a single scum pair. I rejected the notion while working through whether to lynch sjg.

The post of yours I quoted when I said to shoot Justy did not specify Justy. Where are you getting that you said it first? And if you did, why not reference it when pointing out specifically what I was responding to?

You were fine with us going to 3:2. Yeah, I agreed, for like a fucking minute. Yeah, I expressed some fucking doubt. Do you ever think a thing and then realize it's wrong? Do you somehow never doubt anything when you're town?

I should never have pointed out that 3:2 was an auto loss if I'm scum. And you should realize that.

The "hell maybe we should lynch sjg" followed by a retraction only minutes later does not support your point. It was not a wishy washy "I don't think it's worth it?" it was "We can't afford this risk." And you had been arguing that we should lynch sjg on the assumption that there was only a slim chance of the team being you and BS, and you thought then that it wasn't me/sjg.


My frustration at mechanics ruling the game encompassed the entire discussion of there being a single option and my annoyance expressed PRE-GAME that as lynchproof role is imbalanced, which got me a "Tough nuts buttercup" from the GM. I'm struggling to believe that a genuine appraisal of that comment included an assumption that I was reacting solely to your coming around on Justy.

I still don't understand how the existence of Shadow changes the math!

Because I changed course on "No, we can't afford to go 3:2" when I did, we have no idea if you would have continued to beat that drum. Why vote him there if you had no reason to believe we could change course?

And now my nieces are here and I'm done.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 00:02
by sjg11
I’m Shadow btw

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 00:13
by lecrae
Hey Kim, really appreciate the response. I don't have much time before Christmas Eve stuff so I'll reply as soon as I can.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 00:19
by lecrae
Hey town! Guess what? Turns out this game is even harder than we originally thought! :)

If Shadow is scum, and Shadow last until tomorrow for the 2:1, Shadow wins the game for the scum automatically.

Sjg claims to be shadow, but I think we all unanimously agree that sjg is probably scum. Which means we can't trust if he's really shadow or not anyway. Personally, I doubt it.

He has every reason to lie about being shadow, because he would want his scum partner, who is Shadow, to make it to tomorrow so he/she can win. That explains a lot of sjg's behavior; under this theory, his scumteam wins if he's lynched today.

So maybe this kim/Blackswimmer/lecrae thing we were planning to do tomorrow actually needs to be resolved today so we can safely dispose of sjg tomorrow. Unless we do think sjg is telling the truth about being shadow (which he has no real reason to). I don't know the answer, but we've got just under 48 hours to make sure not only that we Lynch scum, but that we Lynch the scum that isn't Shadow! Cheers.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 00:19
by lecrae
Correction: " make sure not only that we Lynch scum, but that we Lynch the scum that is Shadow! Cheers."

And with that, I'm off.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 01:54
by kimpossible
Bleeding hell.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 01:55
by kimpossible
And the other scum just claims whoever the other one is. If sjg is scum.

I'm Aladdin, for the record.

Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 25 Dec 2019, 08:23
by JoeHoya06
kimpossible wrote:But does this push from Lecrae actually seem logical to you? Or does it seem like he's gone all-in on me without any attempt to examine the other options?

I don't know. My feelings have nothing to do with the content of Lecrae's case. I had them while reading EOD1.

Also, did you just assume I'd be like, "ooh, vig shot, kill kill kill?" I know I wasn't there to talk about it, but you just assumed I wouldn't put any thought into the best course of action for the town and would just fire a shot (or Bite some Hammies, as it were)?

kimpossible wrote:
Joehoya06 wrote:My hackles first got up when she described her scum game in that one post (it's 2:00 a.m. and I'm not looking for it right now).

Also, this. Why?

I went and re-read it to try and figure out what rubbed me the wrong way. First of all, I don't like the idea of asking someone to assess how they'd play in this sort of context; like, why would I tell you the truth about how I'd play if I'm scum? And if I'm town, how do you know that I'm telling the truth? I know for a fact that I've gone into games I've drawn town thinking, "okay, no more of this tiptoeing around; go ahead and be confident and if you're wrong, oh well, you can't lynch someone on your own, so you won't be the only one fooled." And inevitably I will get scumread for "playing differently" but the reality is that I've played enough games over the last three years with enough of the same people that I can understand the game more, and the people more, and so as town OR scum, I will probably play differently than I did the last time.

So anyway, part of it is that any time someone willingly delves into something like this, my reaction is the "y doe?" meme. It carries no value to me because it's easily crafted. You acknowledged this as well; and maybe it is a lot more difficult for you than I think it is, which is fine, but I'm not about to sit here and sell anyone's ability to lie and bullshit their way through a mafia game short. :)

In this particular case, I think it felt to me like you were guiding a specific interpretation of your scum game, and that is the kind of thing that makes me say, "uh, wait a minute, if you're saying this is how Kim scums, then why wouldn't you just, like...not do that?" Which, again, you acknowledged.

TL, DR: it got my attention because I am always suspicious of people who give away information and am concerned about their motives for doing so.

nanooktheeskimo wrote:The easier to explain/possibly more convincing way to say it—I have never incorrectly locked Kim as town. Her last scum game I was the only person that suspected her before it came down to process of elimination. In other words—I have a really good Kim read that people should be listening to.

Two things: one, the "well I've never been wrong about her before" defense will never, ever, ever get any credit from me. There's going to be a first time for everything, and also buying into this gives you a town pass that I'm not willing to give out. I think you're town, but I don't know it.

Two: I don't want to get into it, but in thinking about it, I don't agree that the only way I survive the night is if I'm scum.

nanooktheeskimo wrote:Basically Kim did a lot more pro-town stuff than she needed to or would’ve been expected to. So she’s almost certainly not scum and I will lose to her and adjust my expectations if I’m wrong. But I’m not.

Say I don't shoot Justy. Say I pop BS or SJG or anyone else who comes up town. We're 4:2, with everyone eligible to be lynched. Which is where we are right now. I actually think pushing to kill one particular player for seemingly mechanical reasons when it's not mechanically necessary – shooting Justy *would* have been necessary if we hadn't stripped his immunity; I gave my reasons for choosing him but I could have picked someone else if I'd had a better read on him – is more scummy than townie myself. Confirmation bias of him flipping town and proving the point is possible, so I'm not saying this is an "aha!" smoking gun, but just something that I don't think makes her town.

Ultimately, I have no fuckin' clue, guys. It's clear that unless I somehow accidentally get sent a scumchat message with photos of Kim and her partner actually shooting Aeschines, there won't be evidence here for anyone to think of voting Kim, and the only other person interested is one of the top two scum suspects, so I'm hoping I'm just wrong and subconsciously worried about getting got. BUT IF I'M NOT, HOLY SHIT, THE AAR

I'm not ready to dismiss the idea of it being Lecrae and BS, but SJG's post seemed like a scum resignation letter. There are enough people voting him right now that if it's a mislynch, it's not just the scum pushing it at this point, so I'm comfortable (enough) voting there for now.


Merry Christmas, Playdip!