Pet Mafia Game Thread

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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 24 Dec 2019, 20:12

kimpossible wrote:
lecrae wrote:Also, side note: We need to role reveal today, I'm pretty sure.

Only reason not to would be to protect Timon and that’s not really a concern if Nook and Joe are town, which I’m already betting on.

You see an advantage to it though? Shadow can shift a vote, so we dogpile. Pepper is a tiebreaker, so again, we dogpile. We know who Fish and Baxter are and who gives a shit about Aladdin.

I dunno. Probably doesn’t matter. Nanook, your thoughts?

Lecrae if by some miracle you turn up town here I’m going to be super goddamn annoyed that you managed to twist my Day 1 so badly.


I really want to get back onto speaking terms with you. I was upset yesterday because I was really caught off guard by your anger, but I've toughened up and I don't want our argument to lose the game for town. I'd feel awful.

I have a reason for wanting reveals, but I think telling the town why makes that reason slightly less good of a reason. I dunno, it's half-baked but it's a valid concern I have.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 24 Dec 2019, 20:31

I mean, I wasn’t angry at the beginning, the post you said raised alarm bells. That was my “Really dude? Think it through” response.

So it was like “What the actual fuck here?” for you to start down some scumreading path on me, when I felt my D1 was about confirming that we could not stray from Justy and that everyone had to be aware that 3:2 WAS NOT an option, including explaining it to you!

Like, maybe Joe would have figured that out without me saying it, but I didn’t know that for sure and I was absolutely not going to let us risk getting there because I didn’t speak up. And since I was the only one to lay out that math, like, can you see why I felt blindsided by anyone questioning that I was working for the town there?

I’ll be honest here, what I see right now is scum who realized this gambit isn’t going anywhere and needs to sow some doubts for F3.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 24 Dec 2019, 20:32

kimpossible wrote:
lecrae wrote:Also, side note: We need to role reveal today, I'm pretty sure.

Only reason not to would be to protect Timon and that’s not really a concern if Nook and Joe are town, which I’m already betting on.

You see an advantage to it though? Shadow can shift a vote, so we dogpile. Pepper is a tiebreaker, so again, we dogpile. We know who Fish and Baxter are and who gives a shit about Aladdin.

I dunno. Probably doesn’t matter. Nanook, your thoughts?

Lecrae if by some miracle you turn up town here I’m going to be super goddamn annoyed that you managed to twist my Day 1 so badly.

We’re dogpiling either way so I can’t see it mattering that much. Also don’t see it hurting though.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 24 Dec 2019, 20:40

On mobile and last minute Christmas shopping so I’ll try to explain exactly my thought process as to what bothered (and still bothers!) me about your posts when I get to a laptop, Kim. Maybe you’ll understand my process better and help me town read you like everyone else. You’ve gotta work with me a little, though, even if you’re sure I’m scum, if only to prove to Town how fatally flawed my reasoning for doubting you is.

I can actually think of a world where nook/Joe is a scum and they would want to know Timon’s identity. Unlikely, but possible. So I’ll try to be more specific and say SHADOW should reveal today.

I’ll start - I am not Shadow.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 24 Dec 2019, 21:51

All that gets us is nobody claiming Shadow because it's not me and therefore it's one of the POE. It's full reveals or else it's pointless.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 24 Dec 2019, 22:03

kimpossible wrote:All that gets us is nobody claiming Shadow because it's not me and therefore it's one of the POE. It's full reveals or else it's pointless.


If no one admits to being Shadow, we can deduce that Shadow 100% is within the scum roles.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 24 Dec 2019, 22:36

lecrae wrote:
kimpossible wrote:All that gets us is nobody claiming Shadow because it's not me and therefore it's one of the POE. It's full reveals or else it's pointless.


If no one admits to being Shadow, we can deduce that Shadow 100% is within the scum roles.

... And? We're still going to dogpile to deal with the issue, and right now, since I'm not Shadow, I know it's one of the three in my POE. So it makes basically no difference, since I'm not going to townread anyone solely for claiming.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 24 Dec 2019, 22:56

kimpossible wrote:
lecrae wrote:
kimpossible wrote:All that gets us is nobody claiming Shadow because it's not me and therefore it's one of the POE. It's full reveals or else it's pointless.


If no one admits to being Shadow, we can deduce that Shadow 100% is within the scum roles.

... And? We're still going to dogpile to deal with the issue, and right now, since I'm not Shadow, I know it's one of the three in my POE. So it makes basically no difference, since I'm not going to townread anyone solely for claiming.



Please, let them reveal first before we talk any further. You're killing me.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 24 Dec 2019, 22:56

Oh fine.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 24 Dec 2019, 23:01

Why I Had Every Right to Grill Kim: The Megapost

Oddity #1

kimpossible wrote:
Blackswimmer wrote:
nanooktheeskimo wrote:*I'm pretty much just taking Kim as town for her EOD freak out, scumKim just puts that thought into scum chat or holds it I think?

Can you elaborate on this for me? I'm rereading Kim's EoD, and not seeing anything in particular that scumKim wouldn't want to put inthread.

Much as I hate when people interrupt my questioning of someone else... In what unholy universe do I as scum fight tooth and nail to make sure Justy is the lynch instead of pushing it onto literally any other townie knowing that it would win the game for us then and there???


Why is it odd?

She didn't have any meaningful impact on whether or not justy was going to be lynched, even expressing doubt in these three quotes:

kimpossible wrote:But let me think. If we go with a different TK today, 5:2, shoot Justy, 4:2, NK 3:2. I mean if today is a miss and Justy is town. Worst case analysis.

So either way it's end game and in the latter scenario we have odd numbers.

Shit yeah, that is better.


kimpossible wrote:Which again, all of this is assuming a worst case scenario in which Aes, Joe, Nanook, and Justy are all scum... And sjg would have to be too, for us to drop to 5:2 if we lynch him... Leaving the scum team to be exactly Blackswimmer and Lecrae. Do I believe that's the case? Um... Maybe not. Maybe sjg is the way to go?


kimpossible wrote:A perverse part of me wants to YOLO lynch sjg, knowing that we could actually lose the game today if it's a BS/Lecrae team, but if we did at least I'm not playing over Christmas vacation.


Kim's Defense

His argument here hinges on a Kim/sjg team, and also highlights a post where I considered hell, maybe we should and calls that evidence that I wasn't doing anything, "not even a little", to support lynching Justy. Never mind that nobody else got involved in me saying "No, this is wrong, we can't go to 3:2." Lecrae wanted us at 3:2. Where we would already be dead.


My retort

I stick by the "not even a little". To fight implies that there is resistance, and there was little to no resistance for a justy Lynch when kim supported it. She admits she had doubt and considered "hell, maybe we should [Lynch sjg]", which only strengthens my point. When I DID provide some resistance to the justy wagon, kim didn't fight strongly against it. She debated it's merit and eventually decided "I don't think it's worth it?". That /=/ fighting for his Lynch. This is a sticking point for me because she's attempted to use her "fighting tooth and nail for the justy Lynch" to town clear herself. She mentions the 3:2, which leads me into the next point.

Oddity #2a

Kim repeatedly claims that my plan was bad even without the existence of Shadow:

kimpossible wrote:
lecrae wrote:Also, this is sending alarm bells off in my head. You didn't realize that Shadow was in the game, so it was only an auto-win for specifically the kim/Blackswimmer scum team if sjg got lynched. Mayyybe you can push the lynch onto BS, but that wasn't a lock at all. So no, not an easy auto-win for you, unless you're saying as scum you would've known that you could use Shadow to win the game at 3-2 the next day? Which suggests you somehow know Shadow's on the scumteam.

Lolwhut? If I'm scum I DON'T NEED Shadow to win the game. Even if town lynches scum D2 scum wins if Nanook and Joe are town and we mislynch D1. Shadow does not change this.


Here, I'll admit with some time to re-examine things, I think we're just talking about two different sides of the same coin. She's mentioning how, if the scumteam is any combination of kim/myself/Blackswimmer, it's an auto-win for the scum if sjg is lynched. Which is true. I was arguing that the chances of all of Aes/sjg/nook/Joe/justy being town were so slim to me that I was willing to take that risk. Here's that quote for reference:

lecrae wrote:We take a bigger risk today by calling out our top scumread, but we offer ourselves the additional protection of only losing if ALL of nook/Aes/Joe/justy/sjg are scum. And if one of them is scum, we get another chance to lynch scum tomorrow. We have to make a decision more quickly and without an extra day to scum hunt, but we give ourselves a much better shot to catch scum in the long run.


We both had fair points, and at the end of Day 1 kim mentions in her vote post for justy that she just can't risk losing to a Blackswimmer/lecrae scumteam. I think? She doesn't explicitly say it, but that's what her logic suggests. I don't know here, you can find all this progress between pages 20 to 22 in the thread. Point is, I'll retract that this is an oddity. I just think maybe kim doesn't understand the point I was making EOD?

Oddity #2b

Kim claims I admitted she was right with the numbers.

kimpossible wrote:
lecrae wrote:Furthermore, you didn't fight tooth and nail to make justy the lynch, even a little.

It's the "even a little" that is utter bullshit here. YOU'RE the one who tried to get us to go somewhere else, I argued with you with math and you admitted I was right. What the utter fuck is this total reversal now?


Why is this odd?

It's odd because it's verifiably false. This is the progression that led me to discover my plan was fatally flawed.

Blackswimmer wrote:
lecrae wrote:PPE:


Don't forget Pepper.

Well yeah, but pepper in scum hands isn't an auto-loss at 3:2.
I really don't want to risk your plan, Lecrae.


lecrae wrote:Crap, you're right. :oops:

Justy


My post came immediately after his. Furthermore, kim demonstrates she understands that the existence of Pepper dooms my plan to failure with this post:

kimpossible wrote:Christ. It feels like this game is literally driven by mechanical choices that have us in a corner.



Now she's claiming she was the one to convince me my plan was flawed. That's wrong, and kim seems to understand the truth in the quote above. This can be found at the end of page 22 and beginning of page 23.

The first oddity brought me onto kim. The second one kept me on her. Oddities #1 and #2b still bother me about Kim and I'd love clarification from her.

Miscellaneous Points

A kim/sjg scumteam?

I argue that kim's actions make sense within a kim/sjg scumteam. Kim's reply:

kimpossible wrote:EBWO: where I was considering that maybe we should make sjg the lynch. Is that consistent with a Kim/sjg team?


Kim "considering" lynching sjg is totally plausible within a kim/sjg scumteam since kim's vote never actually lands on sjg. It's incredibly easy for scum to "consider" lynching each other without ever putting their money where their mouths are. Distancing 101.

"But Lecrae", people ask, "why are you so worried about just one potential scumteam?" Well, thoughtful person, I'm worried because from my point of view there's only one other possible scumteam (Blackswimmer/sjg). If I believe that kim/sjg is possible, even a little, I really have to make sure I investigate that angle as thoroughly as possible.

Nook's Defense

nanooktheeskimo wrote:
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=60337&p=989911#p989911

viewtopic.php?f=306&t=60337&p=989868#p989868

These two posts and some of the stuff in between. ScumKim doesn’t have to point this out, and she doesn’t have to argue as vigorously for it. I actually missed her pushing for the Justy shot too tbh, but that’s another reason to TR her.

I wasn’t around enough towards EOD to do the guiding I needed to, but Kim did it for me. I don’t think scumKim does that cause she doesn’t have to, it’s easy to just say “Nanook should’ve been here to say this” and leave it at that, and I don’t think scumKim approaches it with the same amount of “now listen here, assholes, this is what we’re doing.”

Basically Kim did a lot more pro-town stuff than she needed to or would’ve been expected to. So she’s almost certainly not scum and I will lose to her and adjust my expectations if I’m wrong. But I’m not.


Kim points out in these linked posts that we need to kill justy tonight. First, in reality, I was the one who first suggested night-killing the Savannah. Check out my second post, all the way from page 4:

lecrae wrote:I disagree with this, I think.

Yes, by not lynching Savannah D1 we're risking auto-losing the game down the road. At the same time, auto-lynching anyone without giving due process to scum hunting feels anti-town, especially since Savannah has a 75% chance of being town anyway. I'm willing to take that risk if I don't have at least a slight scumread on Savannah.

Alternatively, if we scumread whoever outs as Savannah (if we agree that they should reveal at all), why don't we ask Aeschines to shoot him/her tonight? It gets around wasting the lynch vote.


Also check out the first time Kim suggests NKing justy, and how she quoted my suggestion.

kimpossible wrote:
lecrae wrote:@kim: So maybe Joe should use his shot tonight, then?

Yes, on Justy. Assuming the shot goes through even if he is killed (and I've seen it work that way before, but I've asked UFO just to check, waiting on response), tomorrow opens 4:2 if Justy is town.

It's still MYLO, but with a chance to drop to 4:1, which makes it 2:1 after NK (again, assuming all 3 are town).

I think maybe this is the only viable play. And it demands that we do TK Justy today in order to keep the numbers high enough.

@All: Please check me on this. If I'm right, this is critical.


She quotes me and agrees with me that we need to night-kill, specifying that it needed to be on justy (something I implied but didn't write). Maybe she came up with the idea at the same time and I happened to post first, but no one can argue that kim came up with the nightkill plan or that no one was going to without her. Clearly I was already on that track.

So yes, townKim did good to support the night-killing Justy plan because it WAS a good plan...except it also lines up with scumKim who wants Joe to use his vig shot on a townie, which is exactly what happened. I don't see how her EOD is anything but a null tell because of this.

That about catches me up. As far as kim's dismissive response to my line of questioning, I think that's NAI. It could be genuine townKim frustration, or scumKim replicating frustration to ignore my (hopefully valid) points on her.
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