Pet Mafia Game Thread

[Nanook]

viewtopic.php?f=306&t=60337&p=989911#p989911

viewtopic.php?f=306&t=60337&p=989868#p989868

These two posts and some of the stuff in between. ScumKim doesn’t have to point this out, and she doesn’t have to argue as vigorously for it. I actually missed her pushing for the Justy shot too tbh, but that’s another reason to TR her.

I wasn’t around enough towards EOD to do the guiding I needed to, but Kim did it for me. I don’t think scumKim does that cause she doesn’t have to, it’s easy to just say “Nanook should’ve been here to say this” and leave it at that, and I don’t think scumKim approaches it with the same amount of “now listen here, assholes, this is what we’re doing.”

Basically Kim did a lot more pro-town stuff than she needed to or would’ve been expected to. So she’s almost certainly not scum and I will lose to her and adjust my expectations if I’m wrong. But I’m not.

[kimpossible]

I mean we’re both dying tonight so as long as you’re not gonna do something dumb like vote her today then I’ll save the explanation for why it was townie for post game lol

I wouldn't mind that explanation coming out sooner rather than later since me getting mislynched will lose the game for town.

Both the people sussing you will be dead tomorrow, yeah? ScumLecrae dies today, and the only way joe survives the night is if he’s scum.

True but you have the most experience with me of anyone here and you leaving those thoughts for whoever the other townie is in F3 would be good to help them get it right.

PPE: Which I see you have, so cool.

[Nanook]

Tbh I think this game is pretty much just lecrae/sjg? Don’t see scumLecrae needing to try and break up the Kim/joe/Nanook circle of trust if BS is his partner.

[Nanook]

Eh that actually makes sjg the right vote doesn’t it? Cause he’s scum either way, yeah? Either lecrae is his partner trying to run cover, or he’s misguided town and the team is BS/sjg. Either way killing sjg first makes sure we get another day to figure it out (by we I mean Kim, lol)

[Blackswimmer]

Kim's actions yesterday make sense within the context of a kim/sjg scum team, no?

Well, umm, there is this:

What's really convenient about this all, though, is that the fourth post you link where you're back on justy is oh so conveniently skipping an entire period of time where you say stuff like this:

But let me think. If we go with a different TK today, 5:2, shoot Justy, 4:2, NK 3:2. I mean if today is a miss and Justy is town. Worst case analysis.

So either way it's end game and in the latter scenario we have odd numbers.

Shit yeah, that is better.

Which again, all of this is assuming a worst case scenario in which Aes, Joe, Nanook, and Justy are all scum... And sjg would have to be too, for us to drop to 5:2 if we lynch him... Leaving the scum team to be exactly Blackswimmer and Lecrae. Do I believe that's the case? Um... Maybe not. Maybe sjg is the way to go?

A perverse part of me wants to YOLO lynch sjg, knowing that we could actually lose the game today if it's a BS/Lecrae team, but if we did at least I'm not playing over Christmas vacation.

Tooth and nail my ass. You consciously skipped over these posts where you're clearly not pushing a justy Lynch and are considering lynching sjg. Just for that, I say screw it, Kim. Let's see where this goes.

Now, for the record, I think Kim's being a little revisionist in the "tooth and nail" thing. But I'm inclined to write that off as genuine misremembering. Because Kim's actions don't make sense in a kim/sjg team, and in any other team I think nook's right, and scumKim just lets the whole thing ride. Why even open this can of worms - securing a mislynch would just be the better play there.

[Blackswimmer]

Start from an assumption of townJoe, townAes, and townNook, all of which I feel are mechanically all-but-confirmed.

D1: Mislynch for 5:2
N1: Kill a townie, Joe shoots a townie (probably). 3:2
D2: Mathematically you cannot win. Even if you kill scum, Joe and Nook die, taking it to 1:1.

In that scenario, town's only chance is to hit scum with Joe's vig shot. So, okay, maybe it's not quite locked. But as scum I did a super dumb thing by coming back to explain why it had to be Justy D1.

Oh, especially since Joe pretty likely would have taken the shot on Justy that night, thinking we needed his flip. Even without his confirmation today, that wasn't too hard to figure out within a reasonable margin.

Really? I'm not great at mafia math, but this one was pretty simple. If we'd mislynched yesterday, our only chance to win the game is if I don't shoot a townie, and the only way to assure I don't shoot a townie is to not shoot anyone. So no, lynching someone other than Justy would not have locked the game for scum, because it would have been 4:2 this morning.

This is true. But without that whole discussion would you have realised we needed to be at 4:2 not 3:2? I would have assumed you'd have shot justy, realising that not doing so gives scumjusty an auto win.

[Blackswimmer]

By the by, Kim's tone in her interaction with Lecrae is giving me town vibes as well. Especially after last game, I don't think Kim would try and fake that kind of frustration.

[kimpossible]

Eh that actually makes sjg the right vote doesn’t it? Cause he’s scum either way, yeah? Either lecrae is his partner trying to run cover, or he’s misguided town and the team is BS/sjg. Either way killing sjg first makes sure we get another day to figure it out (by we I mean Kim, lol)

Well with his last few posts now I think BS is town making a genuine effort to sort me, so I'm basically at Lecrae/sjg with an outside tinfoil hat chance of Joe. Not for not townreading me but just because I always (and I legitimately mean always) have that paranoid voice speaking to me in the back of my head.

Personally I'd rather stick on Lecrae and get my vindication sooner, but I'll consolidate to either one on the end. When is EOD? Today? To avoid Christmas?

[Blackswimmer]

Hmmm.... I'm currently between voting for lecrae and justy.

Lecrae seems different to my previous experience of town lecrae. But that might just be a playstyle that's developed over the past four years and I'm stuck judging him by the standards of old lecrae. Plus I don't hate his big picture reasoning on justy.

Talk to me about this take on Lecrae. What's your recollection of scumLecrae's playstyle? And if the only thing you've got on him is that his playstyle's changed, how does that elevate him to second-best scumread? Was literally everyone else white as the driven snow to you?

My recollection of scumLecrae's playstyle is of a player who occasionally struggles to engage but attempts to be significantly more placatory than townLecrae who gets a bit grumpy when his ideas are challenged.

That is literally the complete opposite of what I remember. I recall scumLecrae being possibly even more aggressive than townLecrae. Like, I'm just skimming back over Playing for Blood, and holy crap, this is not a placatory scum:
https://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=314&t=37297&sk=a&start=600
And I'm still not following how, even if true, this would lead you to peg him as your second scumread. Because you yourself admit this could be completely natural playstyle evolution.

[Blackswimmer]

Eh that actually makes sjg the right vote doesn’t it? Cause he’s scum either way, yeah? Either lecrae is his partner trying to run cover, or he’s misguided town and the team is BS/sjg. Either way killing sjg first makes sure we get another day to figure it out (by we I mean Kim, lol)

Well with his last few posts now I think BS is town making a genuine effort to sort me, so I'm basically at Lecrae/sjg with an outside tinfoil hat chance of Joe. Not for not townreading me but just because I always (and I legitimately mean always) have that paranoid voice speaking to me in the back of my head.

Personally I'd rather stick on Lecrae and get my vindication sooner, but I'll consolidate to either one on the end. When is EOD? Today? To avoid Christmas?

EoD is the day after Christmas.
I still think Sjg is the lynch, personally, because he feels scummier in his own rights. Lecrae is more of a PoE thing for me, although maybe I'm making more allowances for his case on you than I should because it's a rabbit hole I went down myself.