Pet Mafia Game Thread

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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 19 Dec 2019, 08:05

nanooktheeskimo wrote:UFO says roles are randomly assigned


Well, shucks. That cancels out the one positive I thought of to role-revealing in that we could analyze which roles were more town-sided or mafia-sided.


JoeHoya06 wrote:Hello, fellow dogs, cats, and fishes.

Part of me thinks Savannah should maybe reveal AND be an auto-D1 lynch; if she ends up being scum, we're going to quickly run out of days to lynch her, and we will lose the game.

(Someone better at this than me check my math here...worst case scenario: we mislynch D1, it's 5-2. Scum kill not-Timon, it's 4-2. scumBaxter bites not-Timon, 3-2. We mislynch again, game's over; game's also over if Savannah is scum and we lynch correctly. If we auto-lynch Savannah, it's 5-2 after N1, assuming Baxter doesn't bite anyone. Possibly even still 6-2 if Timon is the target. Then we have the ability to lynch Savannah if she's scum.)

How does the scum benefit from Savannah being outed? A confirmed non-Timon N1 kill, but assuming we've lynched her, it's still just one death heading into D2. The danger in a reveal is if we mislynch someone else and basically give them a free shot and are down to 4-2, and it might be game over N2.

So I guess my theory is if Savannah is outed, we lynch her D1 and give ourselves more time to win the game. If we have caught or pretty close to caught scum, then yeah, lynch there, but otherwise, if scumSavannah is still unlynched by D2, it's almost impossible to win if we mislynch D1.

(But again, someone better than me at mafia math please check that.)


I disagree with this, I think.

Yes, by not lynching Savannah D1 we're risking auto-losing the game down the road. At the same time, auto-lynching anyone without giving due process to scum hunting feels anti-town, especially since Savannah has a 75% chance of being town anyway. I'm willing to take that risk if I don't have at least a slight scumread on Savannah.

Alternatively, if we scumread whoever outs as Savannah (if we agree that they should reveal at all), why don't we ask Aeschines to shoot him/her tonight? It gets around wasting the lynch vote.

JoeHoya06 wrote:Aeschines

If you're telling the truth, you're gonna get NK'd, and that takes away a chance for the scum to hit Timon. That is stupid and we can't let you live and cost us that chance.

If you're lying, you're looking for a counterclaim to give yourself a non-Timon target for the NK. And also scum.

Glad we got that one wrapped up ::checks watch:: five hours into the game. Good work, town!


Do you think it's worth killing someone, even if they are town, just so scum might hit Timon at night? Does Aeschines have any reason at all to lie about his role knowing he would get counterclaimed? I don't think you're new to the mafia scene, so this reads to me as really contrived.

PPE: Will catch up, looks like I've missed a lot of posts since this last one.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 08:05

JoeHoya06 wrote:My "Aeschines is scum here" theory probably also means that Fish is town; them trying to get rid of dogs is indicative of not trying to protect the Fish.

I'm sorry...what? Maybe I'm lost but I don't think Aes was trying to get rid of dogs unless I missed something. I'm not following this at all
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 08:10

Kim I think this might be your cue

Unless I missed my guess and it's BS or SJG
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 08:11

nanooktheeskimo wrote:
JoeHoya06 wrote:My "Aeschines is scum here" theory probably also means that Fish is town; them trying to get rid of dogs is indicative of not trying to protect the Fish.

I'm sorry...what? Maybe I'm lost but I don't think Aes was trying to get rid of dogs unless I missed something. I'm not following this at all


If Aeschines is scum fakeclaiming being Baxter, and draws a counterclaim, he and his partner know who one of the dogs is. My thought was that they were trying to draw out a dog in an effort to kill it, then they're one dog away from killing the fish. If town lynches the other dog, or it gets NKd, then the Fish dies automatically, which is bad for the scum if the fish is scum. So, drawing a dog out and killing it is risky for scum if it puts them one dog death away from a fish death, which tells me Fish isn't scum if Aeschines is.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 08:11

JoeHoya06 wrote:
nanooktheeskimo wrote:
JoeHoya06 wrote:My "Aeschines is scum here" theory probably also means that Fish is town; them trying to get rid of dogs is indicative of not trying to protect the Fish.

I'm sorry...what? Maybe I'm lost but I don't think Aes was trying to get rid of dogs unless I missed something. I'm not following this at all


If Aeschines is scum fakeclaiming being Baxter, and draws a counterclaim, he and his partner know who one of the dogs is. My thought was that they were trying to draw out a dog in an effort to kill it, then they're one dog away from killing the fish. If town lynches the other dog, or it gets NKd, then the Fish dies automatically, which is bad for the scum if the fish is scum. So, drawing a dog out and killing it is risky for scum if it puts them one dog death away from a fish death, which tells me Fish isn't scum if Aeschines is.

...you know scum have roles too, yeah? So whether he's town or scum he's almost certainly actually Baxter.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 19 Dec 2019, 08:12

JoeHoya06 wrote:
nanooktheeskimo wrote:I was gonna be discrete but actually I'll just out it, killing a dog D1 is bad


The scum know this. I'm betting he's scum trying to find some safe space there, and if he gets CC'd, well, they've got their free NK.

I also don't think I understand what "having the vig around is better than not killing Savannah today" means...are you saying Baxter should take a shot? Isn't that pretty anti-town in an eight-player game? I'm not clear on the "not killing Savannah today" part either, I don't think.


JoeHoya, I don't get how you can be this confident Aeschines is scum already. You've already conjured up a scenario where Aeschines is scum playing a game of WIFOM to fake claim as a dog in order to get town credit, a pretty intricate plan that requires a lot of variables to go right - most glaringly, the fact that if he's lying about his role as a dog, he just gets counter-claimed and dies! Feels to me like opportunistic, "I see Aeschines already has votes so I'll hop on the bandwagon and push hard", contrived scumhunting.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 19 Dec 2019, 08:13

lecrae wrote:
JoeHoya06 wrote:
nanooktheeskimo wrote:I was gonna be discrete but actually I'll just out it, killing a dog D1 is bad


The scum know this. I'm betting he's scum trying to find some safe space there, and if he gets CC'd, well, they've got their free NK.

I also don't think I understand what "having the vig around is better than not killing Savannah today" means...are you saying Baxter should take a shot? Isn't that pretty anti-town in an eight-player game? I'm not clear on the "not killing Savannah today" part either, I don't think.


JoeHoya, I don't get how you can be this confident Aeschines is scum already. You've already conjured up a scenario where Aeschines is scum playing a game of WIFOM to fake claim as a dog in order to get town credit, a pretty intricate plan that requires a lot of variables to go right - most glaringly, the fact that if he's lying about his role as a dog, he just gets counter-claimed and dies! Feels to me like opportunistic, "I see Aeschines already has votes so I'll hop on the bandwagon and push hard", contrived scumhunting.


To clarify, you do mention the possibility that he gets CC'd, but do you really think the scum care so much about not hitting Timon, an already low likelihood to happen, that they'll throw one of their own under the bus and lose one of two numbers to get it?
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 08:16

lecrae wrote:
JoeHoya06 wrote:
nanooktheeskimo wrote:I was gonna be discrete but actually I'll just out it, killing a dog D1 is bad


The scum know this. I'm betting he's scum trying to find some safe space there, and if he gets CC'd, well, they've got their free NK.

I also don't think I understand what "having the vig around is better than not killing Savannah today" means...are you saying Baxter should take a shot? Isn't that pretty anti-town in an eight-player game? I'm not clear on the "not killing Savannah today" part either, I don't think.


JoeHoya, I don't get how you can be this confident Aeschines is scum already. You've already conjured up a scenario where Aeschines is scum playing a game of WIFOM to fake claim as a dog in order to get town credit, a pretty intricate plan that requires a lot of variables to go right - most glaringly, the fact that if he's lying about his role as a dog, he just gets counter-claimed and dies! Feels to me like opportunistic, "I see Aeschines already has votes so I'll hop on the bandwagon and push hard", contrived scumhunting.


It's not contrived scumhunting, it's "dude just claimed my role as his own."

I know Aeschines is lying because I'm Baxter. And now, if I don't get lynched, I will die tonight. A one-for-one trade of townMe for scumAeschines is fine, but I was trying to avoid that. I have a message in to UFO asking if my vig shot would still go through if I am NK'd, so that we can at least try to make use of it.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 08:18

Oh you dumbass, Aes was trying to cover for you

On the plus side I'm pretty sure you're both town now
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 08:18

lecrae wrote:To clarify, you do mention the possibility that he gets CC'd, but do you really think the scum care so much about not hitting Timon, an already low likelihood to happen, that they'll throw one of their own under the bus and lose one of two numbers to get it?


A 100% chance is still better than an 83% chance, and if we mislynch today and they get a kill through tonight, the game could be over N2. Shit, even sooner if they kill off the dogs and Fish is town.
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