Pet Mafia Game Thread

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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 07:33

Fwiw I would bet on the roles being assigned randomly just based off how he was talking about the game in signups

Game balance would be bad but our life might be easier if roles weren't randomly assigned so idk what to root for
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 07:43

Hello, fellow dogs, cats, and fishes.

Part of me thinks Savannah should maybe reveal AND be an auto-D1 lynch; if she ends up being scum, we're going to quickly run out of days to lynch her, and we will lose the game.

(Someone better at this than me check my math here...worst case scenario: we mislynch D1, it's 5-2. Scum kill not-Timon, it's 4-2. scumBaxter bites not-Timon, 3-2. We mislynch again, game's over; game's also over if Savannah is scum and we lynch correctly. If we auto-lynch Savannah, it's 5-2 after N1, assuming Baxter doesn't bite anyone. Possibly even still 6-2 if Timon is the target. Then we have the ability to lynch Savannah if she's scum.)

How does the scum benefit from Savannah being outed? A confirmed non-Timon N1 kill, but assuming we've lynched her, it's still just one death heading into D2. The danger in a reveal is if we mislynch someone else and basically give them a free shot and are down to 4-2, and it might be game over N2.

So I guess my theory is if Savannah is outed, we lynch her D1 and give ourselves more time to win the game. If we have caught or pretty close to caught scum, then yeah, lynch there, but otherwise, if scumSavannah is still unlynched by D2, it's almost impossible to win if we mislynch D1.

(But again, someone better than me at mafia math please check that.)
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 07:47

JoeHoya06 wrote:Hello, fellow dogs, cats, and fishes.

Part of me thinks Savannah should maybe reveal AND be an auto-D1 lynch; if she ends up being scum, we're going to quickly run out of days to lynch her, and we will lose the game.

(Someone better at this than me check my math here...worst case scenario: we mislynch D1, it's 5-2. Scum kill not-Timon, it's 4-2. scumBaxter bites not-Timon, 3-2. We mislynch again, game's over; game's also over if Savannah is scum and we lynch correctly. If we auto-lynch Savannah, it's 5-2 after N1, assuming Baxter doesn't bite anyone. Possibly even still 6-2 if Timon is the target. Then we have the ability to lynch Savannah if she's scum.)

How does the scum benefit from Savannah being outed? A confirmed non-Timon N1 kill, but assuming we've lynched her, it's still just one death heading into D2. The danger in a reveal is if we mislynch someone else and basically give them a free shot and are down to 4-2, and it might be game over N2.

So I guess my theory is if Savannah is outed, we lynch her D1 and give ourselves more time to win the game. If we have caught or pretty close to caught scum, then yeah, lynch there, but otherwise, if scumSavannah is still unlynched by D2, it's almost impossible to win if we mislynch D1.

(But again, someone better than me at mafia math please check that.)

I wasn't gonna out this until after Savannah revealed, but yeah that's pretty much what I'm thinking.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 07:48

UFO says roles are randomly assigned
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 07:48

Aeschines

If you're telling the truth, you're gonna get NK'd, and that takes away a chance for the scum to hit Timon. That is stupid and we can't let you live and cost us that chance.

If you're lying, you're looking for a counterclaim to give yourself a non-Timon target for the NK. And also scum.

Glad we got that one wrapped up ::checks watch:: five hours into the game. Good work, town!
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 07:53

Eh, if Aes is town having the vig around is better than not killing Savannah today.

There's also reason not to kill a dog D1
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 07:55

I was gonna be discrete but actually I'll just out it, killing a dog D1 is bad unless the scum team is both dogs. Unless the team is that exact pairing we just end up with a bunch of town dying.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 08:00

nanooktheeskimo wrote:I was gonna be discrete but actually I'll just out it, killing a dog D1 is bad


The scum know this. I'm betting he's scum trying to find some safe space there, and if he gets CC'd, well, they've got their free NK.

I also don't think I understand what "having the vig around is better than not killing Savannah today" means...are you saying Baxter should take a shot? Isn't that pretty anti-town in an eight-player game? I'm not clear on the "not killing Savannah today" part either, I don't think.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Dec 2019, 08:01

My "Aeschines is scum here" theory probably also means that Fish is town; them trying to get rid of dogs is indicative of not trying to protect the Fish.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Nanook » 19 Dec 2019, 08:04

JoeHoya06 wrote:
nanooktheeskimo wrote:I was gonna be discrete but actually I'll just out it, killing a dog D1 is bad


The scum know this. I'm betting he's scum trying to find some safe space there, and if he gets CC'd, well, they've got their free NK.

I also don't think I understand what "having the vig around is better than not killing Savannah today" means...are you saying Baxter should take a shot? Isn't that pretty anti-town in an eight-player game? I'm not clear on the "not killing Savannah today" part either, I don't think.

I didn't say they should shoot, I said it's worse for savannah not to get killed today than to have a vig around.

We actually do want vig to shoot tonight to try and get us to odd numbers, though.

And I guess I should say not TKing Savannah since they won't actually die, but you get my point.

Also worth noting that he can only fake claim if the fish is scum as well, otherwise it just outs him.
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