Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby condude1 » 31 Oct 2019, 21:01

There is actually no one I want to lynch right now (Apart, obviously, from Spidey). I'm going to have to re-evaluate everyone.

Spideyweb. Blackswimmer made an excellent point about roles that I missed. For some reason I forgot Spidey could have a role to screw with us as well. The extra day is worth it. Plan retracted.
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby UFO Fever » 01 Nov 2019, 05:07

Sorry I wasn’t really able to do all that much today. Today was pretty much a full travel day going to Vermont for a ftf dip tournament this weekend, so my activity will be low. I’m still going to try to go through a full ISO of everyone left to discuss my reads before the flip.
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby JoeHoya06 » 01 Nov 2019, 18:12

I'm smelling the apathy Condude was talking about. We've got another 27 hours until Spidey flips – and if there was any doubt as to how she would flip, I think the white flag going up is all the confirmation we need – so let's try a thought experiment, see where everyone's head is.

If you could get just one person's alignment before the start of D4, whose would it be? Like, whose alignment do you think is the most important to help unlock your understanding of the game?

For me, I think it's Kim. Spidey is scum, I am town, and I think CT is town. That leaves four scum among Condude, UFO, Blackswimmer, and Kim. I am not prepared to 100% believe Blackswimmer's claim, but I do think it's more likely than not that he is Buffy, which would leave Condude, UFO, and Kim. I have shared my thoughts on Condude, and I believe that if he is scum, then UFO is most likely town, but I have like no sense at all on Kim, and if I had the chance, I would probably want to know which side she's on.

Thoughts?
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby Blackswimmer » 01 Nov 2019, 19:36

JoeHoya06 wrote:I'm smelling the apathy Condude was talking about. We've got another 27 hours until Spidey flips – and if there was any doubt as to how she would flip, I think the white flag going up is all the confirmation we need – so let's try a thought experiment, see where everyone's head is.

If you could get just one person's alignment before the start of D4, whose would it be? Like, whose alignment do you think is the most important to help unlock your understanding of the game?

For me, I think it's Kim. Spidey is scum, I am town, and I think CT is town. That leaves four scum among Condude, UFO, Blackswimmer, and Kim. I am not prepared to 100% believe Blackswimmer's claim, but I do think it's more likely than not that he is Buffy, which would leave Condude, UFO, and Kim. I have shared my thoughts on Condude, and I believe that if he is scum, then UFO is most likely town, but I have like no sense at all on Kim, and if I had the chance, I would probably want to know which side she's on.

Thoughts?

Probably Kim as well, as far as I'm concerned. CT is lock town for me, and I'm 99% sure UFO's town from dweller's play yesterday. That leaves Condude/Kim/Joe. Of the 3 I'm most inclined to townread you given your interaction with Shadow. Of Condude and Kim, I'd say Condude is the more certain scum after his interaction with UFO yesterday. So Kim is my least certain scumread, and hence the most interesting flip.
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby Blackswimmer » 01 Nov 2019, 19:37

condude1 wrote:There is actually no one I want to lynch right now (Apart, obviously, from Spidey). I'm going to have to re-evaluate everyone.

Spideyweb. Blackswimmer made an excellent point about roles that I missed. For some reason I forgot Spidey could have a role to screw with us as well. The extra day is worth it. Plan retracted.

Spidey having a role is irrelevant, as we're either lynching another scum (who's equally likely to have a role) or we lose. Still think it's the right play, though.
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby Blackswimmer » 01 Nov 2019, 19:38

condude1 wrote:Just a note about that last thought. Dweller didn't want to lose. He probably chose spidey because she would be the easiest lynch to push through while still proving he's Adam. TBH, if we'd gone Nanook's way, it would have worked great for him. If he'd chosen CT, we always lynch him first. That being said, I still don't think CT is scum. Although this logic would imply both of Spidey's partners were harder to lynch than Spidey. Which is scary. He might have just went for someone he didn't think could defend themselves.

Looking at dweller's posts just got me more confused, TBH. He put two confirmed townies as scumleans, and so I'm wondering whether Kim's right and it really is teal-leaf reading.

Ok, so both Spidey's partners are harder lynches than her. What does that tell you about UFO?
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby CommanderTomalak » 01 Nov 2019, 21:45

Man, sorry I hadn't posted more today, but I have been busy (this time busy w/ friends, I must confess, having a party after I may've or may not have passed my exam on Wednesday).

I want to point out that the Spidey vote is still the best... but we will almost certainly be down a townie after the night - depending on who is killed, we may pick up some new info.

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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby JoeHoya06 » 01 Nov 2019, 22:30

Blackswimmer wrote:
condude1 wrote:Just a note about that last thought. Dweller didn't want to lose. He probably chose spidey because she would be the easiest lynch to push through while still proving he's Adam. TBH, if we'd gone Nanook's way, it would have worked great for him. If he'd chosen CT, we always lynch him first. That being said, I still don't think CT is scum. Although this logic would imply both of Spidey's partners were harder to lynch than Spidey. Which is scary. He might have just went for someone he didn't think could defend themselves.

Looking at dweller's posts just got me more confused, TBH. He put two confirmed townies as scumleans, and so I'm wondering whether Kim's right and it really is teal-leaf reading.

Ok, so both Spidey's partners are harder lynches than her. What does that tell you about UFO?


I see where you're going here, but I don't necessarily think they're both more difficult. No matter his alignment, UFO is gonna find himself in danger of being lynched any given day. There was really no interest in lynching Spidey other than from me until Dweller outed her; she was going to be a tough lynch even on D3, probably, assuming she made a cursory post or three, so the best way to get to 1:1:1 was to off her, let the town lynch UFO at some point, and then let the DeepScum survive until the end.

Admittedly, I am biased toward this theory because that's how I would have played it, so I could be wrong. Or you could be wrong. We could all be wrong; Dweller will have to tell us in the AAR. Regardless, while I agree that townUFO would indicate scumCondude, I don't think scumUFO equals townCondude.
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby JoeHoya06 » 01 Nov 2019, 22:30

CommanderTomalak wrote:How was all your Halloweens?


Had a tornado warning. SpoOoOoOoOoOoky!!!

(Didn't get one, everything's good!)
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Re: Fable Mafia 14 The Initiative Game Thread- Day Three

Postby Blackswimmer » 01 Nov 2019, 22:39

JoeHoya06 wrote:
Blackswimmer wrote:
condude1 wrote:Just a note about that last thought. Dweller didn't want to lose. He probably chose spidey because she would be the easiest lynch to push through while still proving he's Adam. TBH, if we'd gone Nanook's way, it would have worked great for him. If he'd chosen CT, we always lynch him first. That being said, I still don't think CT is scum. Although this logic would imply both of Spidey's partners were harder to lynch than Spidey. Which is scary. He might have just went for someone he didn't think could defend themselves.

Looking at dweller's posts just got me more confused, TBH. He put two confirmed townies as scumleans, and so I'm wondering whether Kim's right and it really is teal-leaf reading.

Ok, so both Spidey's partners are harder lynches than her. What does that tell you about UFO?


I see where you're going here, but I don't necessarily think they're both more difficult. No matter his alignment, UFO is gonna find himself in danger of being lynched any given day. There was really no interest in lynching Spidey other than from me until Dweller outed her; she was going to be a tough lynch even on D3, probably, assuming she made a cursory post or three, so the best way to get to 1:1:1 was to off her, let the town lynch UFO at some point, and then let the DeepScum survive until the end.

Admittedly, I am biased toward this theory because that's how I would have played it, so I could be wrong. Or you could be wrong. We could all be wrong; Dweller will have to tell us in the AAR. Regardless, while I agree that townUFO would indicate scumCondude, I don't think scumUFO equals townCondude.

Honestly, scumUFO indicates townCondude more strongly to me than vice versa. I highly doubt scumDude comes out swinging with a huge bus like that on D2. Not with the Adam wildcard still around.

As for dweller's play... I really can't see any universe where it points to scumUFO. I'll grant that playing for a spidey lynch while keeping UFO in your back pocket would be sound. But not to the extent of outing yourself. If you're going to have to out yourself to secure the spidey lynch anyway, you lose nothing by lynching UFO first and potentially gain EVERYTHING. I just can't conceive of any rational reason to go for spidey like that if UFO's scum.
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