DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Fatmo » 24 Feb 2019, 17:56

Taking off and signing off. Fatmo out.

15

EDIT

Shadow, you ask me to vote ASU. At this point, the way Harb and UDC have so smoothly consolidated to me, I absolutely will not do so. Because I KNOW that at least one of you, UDC, and Harb are scum, and that even if ASU happens to be scum, I’m left alive for the final mislynch again for sure. The only way any of the three of you will change your minds will be when Harb flips scum. And it’s my gut as well. I will not switch. Lynch me or Harb.
Last edited by Fatmo on 24 Feb 2019, 23:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Harb » 24 Feb 2019, 17:58

Shadow, why Fatmo over Asu? I'll consolidate there even I can't get Asu, but there's a strong smell of POE to that one. It's mostly based on some vague bad feelings, a large dose of the fact that you and UDC seem pretty town, and Fatmo not really engaging on Asu. But I'm starting to feel like you've got too much reluctance on Asu too, and frankly I would like a whole day for going over whether Fatmo really is Asu's partner.

re:voting data
Sort of the reverse of my points surrounding the RS TK. There, the fact that the NK's haven't touched the people on that wagon makes me think that scum want that pool as big as possible to hide in, hence 2 scum in the wagon. Here, scum don't want to be on a very small wagon with no cover if they know the wagon is a town cop. If 2/3 of that wagon is scum, all the town has to do is say "Scum want the cop dead, there's gotta be scum on that wagon" and they've got a 2/3 shot of taking one out.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby shadowface » 24 Feb 2019, 19:06

Harb wrote:Shadow, why Fatmo over Asu? I'll consolidate there even I can't get Asu, but there's a strong smell of POE to that one. It's mostly based on some vague bad feelings, a large dose of the fact that you and UDC seem pretty town, and Fatmo not really engaging on Asu. But I'm starting to feel like you've got too much reluctance on Asu too, and frankly I would like a whole day for going over whether Fatmo really is Asu's partner.

Fatmo over asu because

D1
Nook (2): Sjg, Aeschines
RedSun (5): Sinnybee, ASU, UDC, SF, Fatmo
Fatmo (4): Nook, Harb, Kim, ZZ



D2
Firestorm (5): Sjg, ZZ, Nook, UDC, Fatmo
Nanook (5): Harb, SF, Aes, FS, ASU



D3
Aeschines (3): Harb, UDC, Fatmo
Fatmo (2): FS, Sjg
Firestorm (3): ASU, Aeschines, SF


Were all the townies voting on all the townies every day??? If Fatmo is town this is genuinely the biggest scumsweep possible. That means we never even had a scum up to the stand. Are all the townies that wrong?

There were cases by sjg that everyone who suspects Fatmo ends up dead. Look at how many townspeople have been trying to kill him.

Then, tonally, just tonally, he's playing like he does when he's mafia in live maf at LYLO. Not a super good tell. Definitely making me paranoid. He'll also do a lot of poking at his own lines - this is why I was giving him towncred but when I think about it, that's not that townie. In fact it's easier than engaging totally with central cases.

And finally, there's the fact that (and you're not going to like this one) I don't want to give you your first pick lynch today. I think you're his scumbuddy and if that's the case, it really really matters who is killed today. You'll hold your scumchum at arms length in the "we'll lynch him tomorrow" slot. It's curious that now you don't want Fatmo when you said he was far and away your second choice for scum.

asudevil wrote:God it's SO Harb.

And shadow...that was a solid plan...and had I known...I would have suicided like Niakan did...clear out a variable.

But get off Fatmo...and join us in Harb...C'mon...this is all on you.


Yay no pressure right? I'd say you should come join me on Fatmo. What do you think about Harb/Fatmo team?
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Harb » 24 Feb 2019, 19:11

Fatmoi guess though, until there’s some indication Shadow is even around.

Shadow - if Fatmo is scum, who is he protecting? He just left the thread with himself as the TK in waiting, while supposedly scumreading Asu and myself. Except Asu is a perfectly viable option for him if he’s actually scumreading Asu.why is Fatmo somunwilling to vote and deal with Asu?

If it’s not Fatmo, I still don’t get why you’re so reluctant in the face of Asu being obvscum at this point and perhaps I’m just spitting into the wolf wind.

PPE :
Oh, you’re addressing it.

Alright, the votin thing is a worthwhile point. I’d counter with that Asu wagon that dissolved late D2 though. There have been attempts to get traction there that have failed. Look just at EOD votes is hard when there’s so much consolidation push.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby shadowface » 24 Feb 2019, 19:14

Harb, if Fatmo ISN'T scum and you're town that means that the team HAS to be Asu/UDC. I don't think it is at all. I don't think UDC is scum and I'm willing to bet the game on that. The fact that you're pushing so hard for a kill of Asu - and it is too late for posturing, he's the lynch you want today - makes me think that you're not a team either.

If it isn't UDC/Harb or asu/Harb, the only way in which you're scum if it's Fatmo/Harb.

The only other options for the scumteam in that case is Fatmo/Asu. We get this by killing Fatmo today as well.

No, I want Fatmo's head today I think.

What are the vote totals at right now?
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby shadowface » 24 Feb 2019, 19:23

Post 12

Harb wrote:If it’s not Fatmo, I still don’t get why you’re so reluctant in the face of Asu being obvscum at this point and perhaps I’m just spitting into the wolf wind.

It's because I can't read asu! I don't understand him, ever, in any games, and I never get why he is reading people as he does. I'm not going to use normal tells against him, it's too inaccurate. But he is really good at calling the scum when he's town.

I think it's
Harb (2): Fatmo, asu
asu (1): UDC
Fatmo (2): shadow, Harb

@Harb: Maybe he's unwilling to vote asu because they're scumchums? Or it's a bus or something, it's so hard to read into motives in this game.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby UpsideDownChuck » 24 Feb 2019, 19:28

Fatmo

Just woke up. Still think ASU is more likely but I think I feel pretty decent about this vote too. Harb and SFs latest engagement reads to me as they’re both town. And a Harb/ASU team just seems really unlikely in light of the events of today. Fatmos played a fucking great game for a rookie scum, but 1. He’s obviously a very smart guy so he’s capable of playing better than a normal new scum and 2 apparently he’s been a wolf in live mafia? I’m not sure how much carryover there is to regular but there’s probably some.

I’ll be around til deadline so yeah, hopefully we get this right
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby asudevil » 24 Feb 2019, 19:28

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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby asudevil » 24 Feb 2019, 19:29

FUCK yeah, I just called it...he will reluctantly end up on Fatmo...and then dance into the AAR...

C'mon Shadow...fucking DO it with me...
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby shadowface » 24 Feb 2019, 19:30

Post 13:

Harb why did you switch to Fatmo if you didn't even know if I was around and there's no indication we can even consolidate that?

I remember UDC said this:

EDIT: I didn’t finish reading, I’d add to her team analysis that I think Fatmo/Harb is unlikely based on the events of D1 and D2 with Harb pushing that Fatmo case, although the fact that that got dropped completely might mitigate that. But yeah, I’m thinking I may have misread Harb of the 3


The reason I don't find this super convincing is that at least when I'm scum I always build massive cases against my scumchums. It's the easiest person to build a case on. And then him dropping the case on day 3... once they're getting closer to just naturally winning... it makes a bus less appealing.
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