Low Stakes Mafia - Town Wins!

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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby Nanook » 12 Nov 2018, 08:09

Ugluk wrote:Nanook became so obsessed with defending his aloofness that every post looked scummy to me, even while I could see my younger, more novice self in them. My taking a political jab at him was still out of line. I apologise.

I probably overreacted to it a bit too.


My self-centric play was more a reflection of the time I had available than anything else. It's easier to focus on things that directly effect you when you're short on time than it is to cast a wider net. Not defending it as good play though, lol.
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby UpsideDownChuck » 12 Nov 2018, 08:23

Dwiltse1114 wrote:
UpsideDownChuck wrote:I’m going to shoot you tonight if they go that route


So mean but I doubt theyd go that route anywho...

So curious udc whyd you choose to kill zoom over myself or ufo?


Zoom seemed like more or a town leader and was more likely to leave some kind of dangerous legacy read in thread than you. I didn't have any thoughts on who was what PR. UFO was obviously off the table since I needed to kill one of the investigative roles.
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby UFO Fever » 12 Nov 2018, 10:04

Niakan where was my milk at?
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby kimpossible » 12 Nov 2018, 14:59

Had I been scum in a relatively town-read position at the end of D1, I would have killed UFO instead of taking the 50/50 risk of being seen by the watcher.

Nanook, seriously. I never said I was scumreading you for your continued lack of activity. The claims of scummy misrep are obviously false, but any claim of misrep there is an assumption of intent that didn't exist. People are not always going to interpret each other's words they way they were intended -- which, in fact, you didn't read my PPE reply to you as intended, and you'd know that if you'd paid attention to the follow-up -- and assuming it was intentional on my part was a one-way ticket to a tunneled bad read.

And then you basically told me that I didn't think what I told you I thought? What the hell man?
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby sjg11 » 12 Nov 2018, 16:53

Yo dudes, busy this afternoon but free this evening and at an actual computer so expect something intelligent. Or at least semi-intelligent.
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby UFO Fever » 12 Nov 2018, 17:02

sjg11 wrote:Yo dudes, busy this afternoon but free this evening and at an actual computer so expect something intelligent. Or at least semi-intelligent.


It don't matter game is solved
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby Ugluk » 12 Nov 2018, 17:04

sjg11 wrote:Yo dudes, busy this afternoon but free this evening and at an actual computer so expect something intelligent. Or at least semi-intelligent.


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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby UpsideDownChuck » 12 Nov 2018, 19:42

kimpossible wrote:Had I been scum in a relatively town-read position at the end of D1, I would have killed UFO instead of taking the 50/50 risk of being seen by the watcher.

Nanook, seriously. I never said I was scumreading you for your continued lack of activity. The claims of scummy misrep are obviously false, but any claim of misrep there is an assumption of intent that didn't exist. People are not always going to interpret each other's words they way they were intended -- which, in fact, you didn't read my PPE reply to you as intended, and you'd know that if you'd paid attention to the follow-up -- and assuming it was intentional on my part was a one-way ticket to a tunneled bad read.

And then you basically told me that I didn't think what I told you I thought? What the hell man?


The tracker clears a person every night (probably unless they track someone to the NK or track the vanilla) so there’s an urgency to killing both PRs. Further, I needed to take that 50/50 eventually and I’d rather get it done earlier
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 1

Postby sjg11 » 12 Nov 2018, 19:46

Zoomzip wrote:SJG, is this in your inbox at all?

Zoomzip wrote:
sjg11 wrote:ZZ, read my initial mechanics post. Is anything there inconsistent with my view of your plan where the tracker and Watcher reveal so the Watcher can protect the Tracker?


Not particularly, but that's not the worrisome thing. This is:

sjg11 wrote:Firstly, follow plan ZZ. Chuck’s analysis is good and you should read it.


Which says ok, let's read it:

UpsideDownChuck wrote:ZZ plan: Both tracker and watcher claim D1 as 'town pr'. Watcher watches tracker every night. Tracker investigates.

Pros:

Baseline odds for lynching correctly D1 are 2 in 6, which are our best odds. In fact, we keep good odds for all game, wolves have to mislynch 3 of 4 vt's to win (this assumes the wolves both claim vt which i assume they would), which seems hard (for the wolves, that is).

Mafia sort of have to shoot the PR's, which entails a slightly better than 50/50 chance of getting caught. 50/50 since if they shoot the tracker the watcher catches them, slightly better because there's a small chance the tracker tracks the killer if they shoot the watcher.


Like, it is the basis of the analysis there that they claim "town PR" not that they claim their role. And the ambiguity of the reveal is the basis of his "better than 50/50" analysis. Like, it is embedded. So... That's the issue dude, you specifically called out an analysis as good, then seemed to not understand how it was arrived at. But it was long and detailed, which had to look impressive, especially if you are scum who also knows Chuck is town.

I don't think this is jumping at shadows. It could be a brain fart, but... essentially you are conceding that you recommended strongly an analysis that you did not understand then, correct?

First off, response to this.

All weekend, so basically all of yesterday, I was frantically and quickly phone posting while in various states of sobriety. I missed the segment of the plan that involved keeping which PR was which hidden. I don't know how else to respond to that... it was a brainfart. That's all.

And yes it turns out I didn't understand the analysis. It's not exactly that unusual for people to not understand an analysis which they think they understand though is it?
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Re: Low Stakes Mafia - Day 2

Postby sjg11 » 12 Nov 2018, 19:55

Chuck

For the record, I'm surprised that slanky sjg didn't come in for more flack yesterday. I was intending to try harder today but there we go... ;)

Go Town!

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