Hydra Nightmares Mafia

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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby NewPhoneWhoDis » 03 Sep 2018, 00:13

UFO, let's take a step back. I think you're rightly upset regardless of what you flip today. If you are town, then please take a moment to recenter yourself.

I brought up your behavior relating to your sjaggro vote here: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=930#p960468

I found your rationale for going after UAcro to be incorrect, and I have attempted to lay out how traditional wagonomics are not nearly as useful here due to the fractured nature of the vote. If you have some feedback on this, then please share it.

I further laid out how your behavior has felt off to me here: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&start=980#p960531

Regardless of which combination is the truth, I think that both narratives are completely valid. I am more inclined to consider it to be scum-motivated because I did not find your reasoning for excluding sjagrro as a vote target today to be compelling. I think that it is possible that you have other reasons for this shift. This is what informs my scumread of you.

I want to engage with you and come to the right decision today. We can't afford to mess up anymore. If you're town, work with me and help us to determine a better explanation for the above. Help us to figure out who is really scum here.

Now for some replies:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:How can you not see that the fact that the votes were 3-1 in UA's favor and now they're 3-2 for me not alarm you to the fact that at least one scum changed a vote to me, and off of UA. That means that UA has to be scum, because otherwise scum wouldn't fucking care. And if UA is scum, how the hell can I be the other scum? You think a scum that's gonna die now throws his vote to his last partner and fuels a scumread by the rest of the town to thwart his last chance of winning? UA and I can't be a scumteam, a scumteam with a chance of winning just on one mislynch wouldn't waste their votes by ONLY VOTING AGAINST EACH OTHER, especially if we both team up on one vote we only need to convince one more town to join. How the fuck does the town voting me not realize this?

Vote before justy voted for you:
UAcro (3): sjaggro, Stallion, MoUFOs
Zoom (1): NewPhone
No vote (1): UAcro

Vote now:
UAcro (2): sjaggro, MoUFOs
MoUFOs (3): NewPhone, Stallion, UAcro

What are you getting at here? From my perspective, it is entirely possible that UAcro and Stallion are both townies and have moved there votes onto you. So no, this doesn't work unless I'm brainfarting again.

If I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say, then please reword this or elaborate for me.

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Way to ignore the fact that we discussed that someone being mislynched in this game is bound to act "weirder" than a Maf getting lynched. My argument was, if UA were town with all of those votes on him, SCUM WOULDNT BE CHANGING THEIR VOTES. Since there's 3 people voting me, and I know that I'm town, AT LEAST ONE SCUM THAT WASNT VOTING ME BEFORE IS NOW VOTING ME. Why the fuck would they have any incentive to do that if they were already voting for a different town player to be mislynched, and their switch off took UA out of the lead. It must mean that UA was scum, and a scum player that was bussing him has now switched onto me to win the game right now.

Okay, so it seems like the source of what you were saying before is because you're writing with the assumption you're town. That's completely fine for laying out your own thought process on certain matters, but you can't argue to someone who isn't you that something must be true given that you are town. We simply cannot assume that this is true, so we cannot use it to reach this conclusion.

Eh, looks like Damon is kind of hitting at the same thing on these last two quotes.

sjaggressive11 wrote:Great, well note to self in the future when scum, just say "busy RL, don't really care about this one" and I've got a guaranteed win right off the bat.

Like you're saying it's me and MoUFO at this point effectively. I... cannot fathom how I'm scummier than UA are to you right now. Like, I cannot appreciate that perspective at all.

You're scummier than UAcro in my mind because, as I laid out, I find the voting behavior between MoUFOs and UAcro to be difficult to understand from the perspective of both of them being scum. It's possible, but it significantly subverts my expectations. As I mentioned during day one, I have had an overall slight town read on you and a pretty null read on Telleo. You are simply more likely because the other possible pair in my mind is less likely.

Again, I think their play has been pretty unfavorable for the town, but the arguments you have provided do not deliver enough to answer how this is necessarily scummy behavior and not just bad play.

Side note: Nook, for the love of connect4's vote tabulator and all other things that are holy, give me a decent chunk of your time to lay out some clear thoughts on who is and is not scum. Like, if you're town, you can seal this for us by being more than a null factor here. I like you as a person and as a player, but I think Mo makes a decent point that I'm working a whole lot harder than you are to get this right. Yeah, you're on limited time. Don't waste your time reminding us. Just find something and offer some sort of insight.

Grrr.
Bleh.
Mafia is hard.

sjaggressive11 wrote:Yes but it's not town nook. Just because you're busy doesn't completely absolve you of scrutiny for your posts. Like how difficult would it have been for nook to go "I dunno ZZ, seems like he had plenty of townreads yesterday to me"? Like seriously, he didn't even do that. And this for someone who was apparently a confident townread on Day One. A read which he is wobbling on today when it's convenient and which he's being allowed to wobble on.

I'm not absolving him of scrutiny. I'm not trying to give him a free pass. I'm saying that, from how I read this, he was saying that he thought he understood what Zoom was getting at, but he didn't necessarily agree with it. Yeah, it misrepresented how many townreads you were offering. That's fair. But again, I am not getting the step to "this is scum-motivated".

sjaggressive11 wrote:But they haven't BEEN inactive. They've actually had a respectable number of posts between them. They've had enough time to make that number of posts. That means that they've had enough time to have done SOMETHING productive in this game. And they haven't.

Like I was being criticised for you earlier for not evolving my scumread on them. But how on earth am I meant to have evolved my scumread when, as you admit, their meta IS completely different to this and they still aren't engaged with the thread?

They haven't been completely inactive, sure. But they're clearly coming in, catching up and quoting single posts as they go, replying, and then leaving. They are obviously not spending as much time here. Sure, post-count-wise, they're doing alright. But like if you put each catch-up session into one post per session, it would tell quite a different story.

Why not look at their opinions during day one to see if they have been consistent there? I kept track of this while ISOing them yesterday (RL, not game-day), and I thought that their opinions on specific players have progressed in a way that makes sense. Disagree? Find something. Give me something to sink my teeth into. I'll kill UAcro if you give me something better to work with, but right now, I'm just fine where I am.

sjaggressive11 wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Stallion and NewPhone, if you're locked into your current votes on me can you just vote to end day? If there's no fucking point to defend myself I'm not going to put the effort and we might as well just end the game now. I've got things I need done today and the lack of Mafia distraction would help a lot.


This, too, is concerning.

Town is not playing only for a one-day lynch, as we have two people that we need to identify correctly in order to win the game. Ending the day early denies us the possibility of catching someone else in a scumslip or any other inconsistency, which can prove to be essential during D3.

Oh come on Damon, the End Day vote is clearly a snap emotional reaction to an imminent lynch/loss.

Trying to analyse it from a logical perspective doesn't work as it's not a logical action regardless of UFO's alignment.

Agreed here. Damon, I appreciate that you try to incorporate new evidence, but I believe that you jump to quickly to fit things into your narrative before considering that a behavior might be a null tell.

sjg, I'd like your perspective on this specifically because I value your opinion as a player. Do you make anything of Fatmo's insistence that I needed to wait for UFO to reply on several subjects when I was questioning him on a few things several pages back? I don't want to delve into confirmation bias myself, so I'd like your perspective here. Does Fatmo deferring to UFO on those things mean anything?

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:I'm MORE desperate as town because this fuck up loses the game. That's MY undefeated record gone to shit because of you.

Yeah, this reaction works as a townie. But we would also be jeopardizing your record as mafia by lynching scum-UFO. I don't draw much either way from this kind of reaction because this sort of anger can happen from either alignment under these circumstances.

You were talking about how even if UAcro were a mislynch, it would be poetic justice. The votes were piling up on your preferred choice.

Then justy sneaks in an says mean things about you in red. Then Nook does. Then Damon does.

Suddenly, you're in first place in a race you don't want to win.

Yeah, it's unexpected. It's surprising. And you're not doing enough to prevent it.

If your emotions are genuine either way, I'm sorry for causing you this amount of displeasure. I am working based on the data I have to work with, and you are simply the highest expected value for a successful scum lynch today.

Phew, I think that's everything for now.

I know things are really tense right now. This has been a very difficult game for me on several levels. I don't want to upset anyone. Please work with me.

- FS
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby mhsmith0 » 03 Sep 2018, 00:19

Reminder that a bit over 2.5 hours left in day phase.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 03 Sep 2018, 00:43

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:
sjaggressive11 wrote:Great, well note to self in the future when scum, just say "busy RL, don't really care about this one" and I've got a guaranteed win right off the bat.

Like you're saying it's me and MoUFO at this point effectively. I... cannot fathom how I'm scummier than UA are to you right now. Like, I cannot appreciate that perspective at all.

You're scummier than UAcro in my mind because, as I laid out, I find the voting behavior between MoUFOs and UAcro to be difficult to understand from the perspective of both of them being scum. It's possible, but it significantly subverts my expectations. As I mentioned during day one, I have had an overall slight town read on you and a pretty null read on Telleo. You are simply more likely because the other possible pair in my mind is less likely.

Then why aren't you voting for me? If the voting behaviour indicates that MoUFO/UA is not a team and Stallion's a TR then surely your only available teams are sjg/UA and sjg/MoUFO. So why are you going after MoUFO today?

sjaggressive11 wrote:Yes but it's not town nook. Just because you're busy doesn't completely absolve you of scrutiny for your posts. Like how difficult would it have been for nook to go "I dunno ZZ, seems like he had plenty of townreads yesterday to me"? Like seriously, he didn't even do that. And this for someone who was apparently a confident townread on Day One. A read which he is wobbling on today when it's convenient and which he's being allowed to wobble on.

I'm not absolving him of scrutiny. I'm not trying to give him a free pass. I'm saying that, from how I read this, he was saying that he thought he understood what Zoom was getting at, but he didn't necessarily agree with it. Yeah, it misrepresented how many townreads you were offering. That's fair. But again, I am not getting the step to "this is scum-motivated".

It's scum-motivated because it's not town-motivated. Like, I'm saying that nook rather than saying "don't necessarily agree" would have gone "I don't agree" as town. And no being busy doesn't change that. It's possible to actively say "I disagree" while being busy and not going into much detail. That's not what nook said. And it IS what town nook would have said, as ZZ quite rightly pointed out before he left us.

sjaggressive11 wrote:But they haven't BEEN inactive. They've actually had a respectable number of posts between them. They've had enough time to make that number of posts. That means that they've had enough time to have done SOMETHING productive in this game. And they haven't.

Like I was being criticised for you earlier for not evolving my scumread on them. But how on earth am I meant to have evolved my scumread when, as you admit, their meta IS completely different to this and they still aren't engaged with the thread?

They haven't been completely inactive, sure. But they're clearly coming in, catching up and quoting single posts as they go, replying, and then leaving. They are obviously not spending as much time here. Sure, post-count-wise, they're doing alright. But like if you put each catch-up session into one post per session, it would tell quite a different story.

Yes but the content of those catch-up posts... it's headed in boring directions. It's just... not what I'd expect of town SF and town nook even when busy. And kimbyrle, ZZ and shirt, all experienced and all with experience of both players, agreed with me.

sjg, I'd like your perspective on this specifically because I value your opinion as a player. Do you make anything of Fatmo's insistence that I needed to wait for UFO to reply on several subjects when I was questioning him on a few things several pages back? I don't want to delve into confirmation bias myself, so I'd like your perspective here. Does Fatmo deferring to UFO on those things mean anything?

If you were questioning UFO then surely UFO is better placed to answer those questions than Fatmo is? Making Fatmo's position very reasonable? Or am I missing something here....?
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby Damon Huntington » 03 Sep 2018, 00:56

Just passing by to tell you guys that based on the waiting list of this restaurant, I might not be present for EOD vote.

Still, I’m reasonably convinced of the case regarding scum UFO, so I’m confident in leaving this vote on him for now.

PLEASE tag any important posts in huge and colour with my name in case something surfaces. I’ll see if I can rush back home before the deadline.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 01:08

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:Grrr.
Bleh.
Mafia is hard.


Lol yes it is. Is it normally this much of a shitshow? I have nothing to compare to so don't really know.

My partner may be very upset, but he really doesn't want to loose this game. Can you guys blame him? I just don't think it's that productive to get so upset, but I completely understand why he's so angry. You guy are making the wrong call, and obviously he knows that. It might only be one of you that's town and voting for us. I beg that person to reconsider. However, from the way you guys are talking, you're pretty much mentally locked in, and it's kind of hard to reason with people who have already made a choice like that.

Anyway, this has kind of gone to a meta level I don't really comprehend. There's a lot happening now. People are now looking at old games for clues about this one. Lol that's where I kind of have to draw the line. I'm not about to read hundreds of pages of multiple other games just so I can find some small nugget of behavior or something to try to pin things on someone in this game.

But yea, as I said in my last post, I'm starting to lean MUCH more to Sj as town. I still have Stallion as town. So that would mean a NewPhone/UA scum team.

Sj seems genuinely and legitimately befuddled at how anyone can accuse them and us of being a scum team. The way they expressed it is basically the way I'm feeling now. I know we're not scum, and to me I feel that as today has gone on, Sj has seemed more and more town to me as NewPhone has seemed more and more scummy.

I thought the poking and prodding by NewPhone of my reads was kind of odd now that I look back on it. They were pressing me to see how equally I suspected Sj and UA of being scum, and how sure I was that NewPhone and UA were scum. Only after I made it clear that my townread on NewPhone was somewhat less than my townread on Stallion, and that my scumread on Sj was not as strong as it was for UA, did NewPhone really ramp up an attack on MoUFOs. Which UA immediately jumped in on.

Now that I think about it, this makes sense if NewPhone and UA is the scum team. I think that if I'd said that my read on Sj was equally scummy to my read on UA, and that I thought NewPhone was as ironclad townie as Stallion, they might have voted to Lynch UA. Even though they had been defending UA, they easily could have constructed some new narrative about them, explaining how they ISOd their posts and got a new hunch or something. Lol Mafia kind of seems like writing a liberal arts essay in college. You just find random bits of knowledge and facts and come up with some narrative to make them mean whatever you want. Then they would have nightkilled Stallion, and could have relied strongly on my vote to wrongly lynch Sj on the next day and thus win the game for the scum. Does this not make some sense to you Stallion? I know NewPhone has spent a lot of time gathering little bits and pieces of "evidence" and stitching it together to form narratives, but as you'll see soon (if you keep your vote on us), they are scum trying to win the game. Well played if they succeed.

Sorry for suspecting you earlier Sj. I've made some wrong reads I guess, if the reads I have now are right. I was wrong to suspect Zoom. And my townread on NewPhone for most of the game may have been a big mistake. Now I think I was wrong about Sj. I'm trying to learn Mafia on the fly pretty much. I've definitely learned a lot from this game, though from the way you all are talking about it, this game has become kind of unique and insane. I still have a lot to learn.

Hopefully I've been right about you since a day or so after you joined in Stallion. And hopefully you realize before the deadline that perhaps you're reading too much into all this crazy meta stuff. Your gut has told you I'm town for most of the game. I hope you go with that instinct, rather than going along with NewPhone, who is admittedly very very good at putting together very reasonable sounding narratives. I haven't really had the time to spend doing that, nor have I felt the need to. As town, I felt like people would just see I'm acting like I'm town. Most of you have said at various points you read me more as town than UFO. Well I don't know what to tell you, other than that we are two heads on the same townie hydra.

If not, the game is over in two hours, and the scum can just laugh and laugh that we didn't even manage to get ONE of them lol.

~Mo
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 01:10

Damon Huntington wrote:Just passing by to tell you guys that based on the waiting list of this restaurant, I might not be present for EOD vote.

Still, I’m reasonably convinced of the case regarding scum UFO, so I’m confident in leaving this vote on him for now.

PLEASE tag any important posts in huge and colour with my name in case something surfaces. I’ll see if I can rush back home before the deadline.


@STALLION PLEASE READ MY LAST POST
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 01:12

Ahh, you said to do it in a color, so...

@STALLION PLEASE READ MY LAST POST
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 03 Sep 2018, 01:26

Well it's 00:30 here and I suspect that Damon is the guy I need to talk to and he's vanished so... I guess there's no real point me staying up to 3AM to see how things develop.

I suspect I'll see y'all in the AAR fairly soon.

Oh, one thing to look at which I just remembered.

Note the difference in nook's reaction to my case on Day One compared to Day Two.

On Day One, nook was very understanding about my case and a potential mislynch. Day Two he suddenly became much harsher despite not changing what made the Day One case reasonable in the first place.

Anyway, adios and hope there's a Day 3.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 01:37

sjaggressive11 wrote:Well it's 00:30 here and I suspect that Damon is the guy I need to talk to and he's vanished so... I guess there's no real point me staying up to 3AM to see how things develop.

I suspect I'll see y'all in the AAR fairly soon.

Oh, one thing to look at which I just remembered.

Note the difference in nook's reaction to my case on Day One compared to Day Two.

On Day One, nook was very understanding about my case and a potential mislynch. Day Two he suddenly became much harsher despite not changing what made the Day One case reasonable in the first place.

Anyway, adios and hope there's a Day 3.


Yea Sj. Sorry we're about to loose the game for the town because we can't convince the other town member to take their vote off us. And the one player I thought I could reason with has said he's not around until the deadline.

Ahh well. Well played UA/NewPhone if that's what's just happened. And if Stallion is part of the Mafia, REALLY well played.

UA or NewPhone. I know I'm pegging both of you as scum now, but of course I can't be sure. If one of you is really town, please reconsider your vote. I know there's not much time left, and that you seem to have made up your minds.

Whichever person ends up being the townie and voted for us, I'd really like to know why you jumped on us. I've seen a lot of really long posts trying to paint us as scum, but none ring true to me.

Lol what a crazy game. The only other hydra still sorta-kinda in our corner is now Sj, who we voted for on day one and I suspected of being scum until most recently.

GG scum. If anyone has any questions for me, please ask. But at this point, please don't waste my time if you're scum and just want me out anyway. You all seemed locked in, so oh well.

~Mo
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 03 Sep 2018, 01:45

What happens if there's a tie in votes between two people? Or in this game two hydras?
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