Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Moderators: Zoomzip, Telleo, bkbkbk, condude1, sjg11

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby StallionHeadHydra » 02 Sep 2018, 23:03

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:They literally said "well here goes my current theory." They lynched topless in part because of a "we (town)" word choice, but then they're allowed to ignore their own shirt word choice? Fuck that.


Hey Damon why have your lynch standards changed from Day 1 to now?


How so? I'm afraid I don't follow.
StallionHeadHydra
 
Posts: 115
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 03:58

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 02 Sep 2018, 23:09

StallionHeadHydra wrote:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:They literally said "well here goes my current theory." They lynched topless in part because of a "we (town)" word choice, but then they're allowed to ignore their own shirt word choice? Fuck that.


Hey Damon why have your lynch standards changed from Day 1 to now?


How so? I'm afraid I don't follow.


Justy literally said "well there goes my theory" on why he's lynching me, but won't Unvote me. You wanted to lynch Sinny because she said "we (town)." So why don't Justy's words deserve the same strict scrutiny?
User avatar
MoUFOsMoProblems
 
Posts: 231
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 08:26

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 23:10

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:
MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Hey Damon why have your lynch standards changed from Day 1 to now?


How so? I'm afraid I don't follow.


Justy literally said "well there goes my theory" on why he's lynching me, but won't Unvote me. You wanted to lynch Sinny because she said "we (town)." So why don't Justy's words deserve the same strict scrutiny?

MoUFO, that's not a good argument.

There is more to why justy is voting for you than that.

Moreover "my theory" could easily just refer to that part of his theory rather than his entire vote.
User avatar
sjaggressive11
 
Posts: 137
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 05:29

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby StallionHeadHydra » 02 Sep 2018, 23:13

sjaggressive11 wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:
sjaggressive11 wrote:But Stallion, read UFO's play in both Tribal and Fable 11.

In both games, things started going wrong for the scumteam and UFO remained very calm and collected and turned it around.

This... isn't the same reaction from UFO. He's not calm and collected scum UFO here.

Do you disagree with my assessment here?


Yes, I do.

On Tribal Mafia, UFO had a safety net to rely upon. He was only my third suspicion, Kim [a nearly-proven Townie] seemed to believe him at first, Nanook [post-revival] was dead set on killing me... so he was far from being pressured in the way that he has acted in this game. Not once he got close to being lynched there, if memory serves right.

On Fable 11 [although I'm commenting superficially, as I haven't followed the game], it seems like the lynch on UFO was part of a Mafia plan that worked successfully. In the very words you wrote in the AAR, "Day Two was the turning point here. A lot of credit to UFO for turning what briefly looked like a runaway lynch into a coin toss with both of his buddies voting for UFO Fever. You secured the Sisterhood win there."

Thus, neither of these games went in disagreement to UFO's plans, and for that reason the situations widely differ. There were obviously some moments of tension, but never a situation in which the pressure was placed on him that harshly. You have to concede that this scenario is much different from both Tribal Mafia and Fable 11.

I'll take this one game at a time:

Tribal: I'll accept that my viewpoint on the game is probably coloured by the fact that I was frantically telling you all that PD and UFO were the Mafia and that the resurrection mechanic was potentially dangerous (If I'm right about UA being scum btw and we mislynch today I'll have a double "I told ya so" over you btw ;) ) But, to me, UFO was under a lot of pressure there to ensure that I went down over himself or PD. Admittedly a different type of pressure, but still pressure. And UFO didn't crack at all.

Fable 11: What I meant by that comment was that it was important that UDC was lynched over UFO. If that hadn't happened the game would have been far harder for the scum. Yes both of his buddies were voting for him but the plan was for UFO to claw his way to an extra mislynch, then die himself on Day 3 so that the Mafia could nail some of the UDC voters on Day 4. That was a potentially very tense day where UFO was really close to being lynched and, again, he didn't crack at all.


Not so fast!

In Tribal Mafia, UFO was never under direct lynch pressure. This means he was never emotionally invested into the pressure, even though he had to provide rebuttals to the accusations you have provided. Furthermore, Passionately wasn't also under pressure during Day 1 and few people agreed with me on Day 2, so the pressure was considerably lower. Add that to the fact his partner was somewhat absent from the game, and you can see that:

- UFO was never under direct threat.
- There would be a clear advantage to bussing Dispassionate in that game, which UFO could exploit (and did after Day 3, before we discovered that Nanook was the Executioner).

In Fable 11, UFO was under a direct lynch but had two partners to fall upon - an advantage that he won't have here, as this format only has the total number of 2 scum. It's quite reasonable to derive that the pressure upon him wouldn't be the same, because there's a smaller sense of urgency with a larger Mafia network.

I do not know the context surrounding Fable 11, and for that reason I won't even try to warrant a guess based on the qualitative nature of those lynches themselves. The fact is that numbers matter - and this is why I see the pressuring context in a different manner here. To quote a popular saying, "there's safety in numbers".

I cannot warrant any other observations on Fable 11, but there's a huge gap between Tribal Mafia and this game.
StallionHeadHydra
 
Posts: 115
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 03:58

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby StallionHeadHydra » 02 Sep 2018, 23:17

MoUFOsMoProblems wrote:Justy literally said "well there goes my theory" on why he's lynching me, but won't Unvote me. You wanted to lynch Sinny because she said "we (town)." So why don't Justy's words deserve the same strict scrutiny?


OBJECTION!

My vote on you is not based solely on Justy's analysis of you never using Wagonomics - in fact, I've presented a counter-argument to that previously, even before you wrote your reply.

StallionHeadHydra wrote:
NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:At the moment, I'm voting MoUFO because I think there are two likely scum teams:
UA + MoUFO
Aggro + MoUFO

I really don't see UA + Aggro. I don't think you are scum.

Out of Aggro, UA and MoUFO, I think that MoUFO has least reasons to town-read them. I do not have much concrete reasons to scum-read them, which is why my plan is to ISO them (and UA if I have time) before day ends. At the moment, I think that UFO's UA vote at the beginning of D2 based on wagonimics is red flag. I went through his games here on this site (latest Fable, Tribal and Alien Infection) and found that in none of those he seemed to vote based on wagonimics. This makes me think his vote now is something pre-decided and that most likely it is decided in scum chat (because him not doing it before suggests outside input).

-justy


However, there's a counterargument to that - namely, he was a member of Mafia in Tribal, rather than a member of Town. I think that he was also Mafia in the latest Fable, if I'm not mistaken.

Therefore, this change wouldn't necessarily indicate that he's part of the Mafia, except if he decided to change his meta because of his role as Mafia in two recent games... hmm. I guess I can see that.

Nonetheless, do take into account that UFO did not act like that in his past scum games. Perhaps this is not as alignment-indicating as we might think.


Page 99, Post 1.

My belief on your guilt stemmed from the remainder of Justy's arguments, especially coupled with my ISO read of you and your perceived desperation after the pressured was piled up on you. This has nothing to do with the narrative on Wagonomics, and for that reason Justy admitting that he was wrong about it doesn't change my stance in the least.
StallionHeadHydra
 
Posts: 115
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 03:58

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 23:24

StallionHeadHydra wrote:
In Fable 11, UFO was under a direct lynch but had two partners to fall upon - an advantage that he won't have here, as this format only has the total number of 2 scum. It's quite reasonable to derive that the pressure upon him wouldn't be the same, because there's a smaller sense of urgency with a larger Mafia network.

I do not know the context surrounding Fable 11, and for that reason I won't even try to warrant a guess based on the qualitative nature of those lynches themselves. The fact is that numbers matter - and this is why I see the pressuring context in a different manner here. To quote a popular saying, "there's safety in numbers".


I'm gonna remove Tribal from this because you're right that it's not a particularly useful example. Fable 11 is the more interesting game to consider.

That Day 2 was a HUGE moment in the game that could have easily gone wrong for the scum. Like, literally, if the coin toss on Day 2 had gone the other way the town would have immediately become the favourite to win the game.

And yes it wasn't a MYLO situation. This is a MORE important lynch than that was. But there was still a lot of pressure on that Day 2 and UFO didn't crack at all. This is a completely different reaction under pressure than that was. Which suggests either a different alignment or it could just indicate that UFO Fever has had a bad day/week or something and is grumpy and this has irritated him. The bad day flaw is always an issue when considering tonal reads based off of grumpyness levels.
User avatar
sjaggressive11
 
Posts: 137
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 05:29

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 23:24

StallionHeadHydra wrote:
My belief on your guilt stemmed from the remainder of Justy's arguments, especially coupled with my ISO read of you and your perceived desperation after the pressured was piled up on you. This has nothing to do with the narrative on Wagonomics, and for that reason Justy admitting that he was wrong about it doesn't change my stance in the least.

So why is town UFO NOT desperate here? Like surely UFO is desperate regardless of alignment here?
User avatar
sjaggressive11
 
Posts: 137
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 05:29

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby MoUFOsMoProblems » 02 Sep 2018, 23:28

sjaggressive11 wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:
My belief on your guilt stemmed from the remainder of Justy's arguments, especially coupled with my ISO read of you and your perceived desperation after the pressured was piled up on you. This has nothing to do with the narrative on Wagonomics, and for that reason Justy admitting that he was wrong about it doesn't change my stance in the least.

So why is town UFO NOT desperate here? Like surely UFO is desperate regardless of alignment here?


I'm MORE desperate as town because this fuck up loses the game. That's MY undefeated record gone to shit because of you.
User avatar
MoUFOsMoProblems
 
Posts: 231
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 08:26

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby StallionHeadHydra » 02 Sep 2018, 23:31

sjaggressive11 wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:
My belief on your guilt stemmed from the remainder of Justy's arguments, especially coupled with my ISO read of you and your perceived desperation after the pressured was piled up on you. This has nothing to do with the narrative on Wagonomics, and for that reason Justy admitting that he was wrong about it doesn't change my stance in the least.

So why is town UFO NOT desperate here? Like surely UFO is desperate regardless of alignment here?


OBJECTION!

I agree that the situation would be despairing for a member of the Town alike - however, a member of Town would have a clear line of defence because all of his actions are justifiable/explainable.

UFO contradicts that pattern of behaviour. By acting in a desperate way and trying to fling arguments that lack any sense (which I have pointed three times or so until now), he indicates that he has no reasonable counter-argument to assuage my concerns.

Therein lies the problem. A member of Town would be focused on explaining why things are not the way that's being described. A member of Mafia would be focused on creating new barriers and moving the goalposts further and further away. To summarise this in a simple way, Towns tend to respond to a FoS with a "you're wrong because you interpreted this old phrase incorrectly" (granted, sometimes added of a new reason why the person is wrong). On the other hand, scum members tend to respond to a FoS with a "you're wrong because of this new thing I'm presenting now".

UFO's actions are much closer to the second hypothesis.
StallionHeadHydra
 
Posts: 115
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 03:58

Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 23:41

StallionHeadHydra wrote:OBJECTION!

I agree that the situation would be despairing for a member of the Town alike - however, a member of Town would have a clear line of defence because all of his actions are justifiable/explainable.

UFO contradicts that pattern of behaviour. By acting in a desperate way and trying to fling arguments that lack any sense (which I have pointed three times or so until now), he indicates that he has no reasonable counter-argument to assuage my concerns.

Therein lies the problem. A member of Town would be focused on explaining why things are not the way that's being described. A member of Mafia would be focused on creating new barriers and moving the goalposts further and further away. To summarise this in a simple way, Towns tend to respond to a FoS with a "you're wrong because you interpreted this old phrase incorrectly" (granted, sometimes added of a new reason why the person is wrong). On the other hand, scum members tend to respond to a FoS with a "you're wrong because of this new thing I'm presenting now".

UFO's actions are much closer to the second hypothesis.

You're making a lot of assumptions here.

Firstly, an assumption that a townie will always be able to justify/explain their actions... well surely you've played enough Mafia to know that that's a nice sentiment but rarely translates in reality. Now obviously there is no expectation to change an opinion after a poor defence but a poor defence is not indicative in and of itself (in most cases).

And maybe he's slinging random arguments around because he doesn't actually understand what your argument is. It wouldn't be the first time or even the 1,000,000th time that a townie failed to engage with a case which they simply didn't understand in the first place.

@UFO: Why is Damon voting for you right now?
User avatar
sjaggressive11
 
Posts: 137
Joined: 24 Aug 2018, 05:29

PreviousNext

Return to Game Threads

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests