Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 6

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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Keirador » 16 Aug 2018, 07:35

No, fuck, I KNOW you've read dwilt posts that you professed to find value in. So you know he's been doing work. What is this shading?
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Keirador » 16 Aug 2018, 07:38

I'M SUPPOSED TO BE ISOING YOU MONSTERS LEAVE ME ALONE.

Officially No Lynch. If you're offering me the time, I'll take it motherfuckers.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Telleo » 16 Aug 2018, 07:39

Keirador wrote:
Telleo wrote:
Dwiltse1114 wrote:beyond this tho if it isn't willie/telleo someone else is gonna need to solve it...


No, you need to do some work here. You're wrong about me, and it's on you to work that out. Your case is pure narrative. You've pointed to nothing that I've done that's actually scum-indicative. I've answered your case, and you're not bothering to answer me, except to complain that I'm not treating you like a veteran. Get it done.

Honestly my friend, it's elitist bullshit if you think dwilt hasn't done work this game. Yeah, his grammar is not good. That clearly leads people to ignore him. Don't start tuning in on where he accuses you, he's been doing tons of work for far longer. It's why I'm damned sure he's town. If you don't recognize he's been doing work, why do you think he's town? Or do you, even? Am I way off-base here?


I DO think he's been doing work this game. I DO think he's likely town. I DON'T think he's approaching his read of me from any place other than "Telleo's capable of scum sorcery." And while yeah, he's got a lot in thread, when he puts a case up explaining why he think's I'm the second scum, and I answer him, and he says it's on someone else to figure out if I'm not scum... yeah, that's gonna trigger some harsh words.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Keirador » 16 Aug 2018, 07:51

"Telleo's capable of scum sorcery" is a perfectly fine reason for a vote, and you know that. Not sure why that attracts opprobrium from you.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Telleo » 16 Aug 2018, 08:02

Keirador wrote:"Telleo's capable of scum sorcery" is a perfectly fine reason for a vote, and you know that. Not sure why that attracts opprobrium from you.


Because part of my job as town is to help my teammates to read me as town, and you know that. Not sure why that attracts opprobrium from you.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Keirador » 16 Aug 2018, 08:25

Damn, roasted.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby sinnybee » 16 Aug 2018, 10:16

Keirador wrote:Sinny, my point is that it doesn't make sense to combine the chances of the first lynch and the second lynch.

I laid out the math; you have done nothing whatsoever to refute it or to offer your alternative facts.
The chances aren't combined, they are multiplied, because it's less likely for town to correctly guess on both of the two remaining lynches than it is to guess on one without the other.

Keirador wrote:We don't pick two lynches right now, we pick one, and then the other. The phasing matters.

I did the math in steps, as two choices, not one.

Keirador wrote:Even if we ignore reads and imagine everything is random,

Even if we DON'T ignore reads and imagine everything is random, my point is still valid, that the raw odds of picking scum are higher when there are a higher percentage of scum to pick from.

Keirador wrote:we don't have a (1/3) * (1/4) chance of winning, because we don't currently have the option of making that kind of choice.

What?? We will have the 1/4 chance on the second lynch if we pick scum on the first lynch and do not take a no lynch/NK.
It doesn't matter if the second lynch vote is five seconds or five years after the first.

Keirador wrote:We don't choose independently. We can only pick the (1/3) right now, and the result of that strongly influences the second phase.

Correct, but in order for there to be a town victory without the use of a no lynch & NK, the raw odds are 1/3 for the first, and then if that happens (that scum is lynched with a NK), there will later be 1 scum of 4 remaining players.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby Dwiltse1114 » 16 Aug 2018, 16:52

Telleo wrote:
Dwiltse1114 wrote:beyond this tho if it isn't willie/telleo someone else is gonna need to solve it...


No, you need to do some work here. You're wrong about me, and it's on you to work that out. Your case is pure narrative. You've pointed to nothing that I've done that's actually scum-indicative. I've answered your case, and you're not bothering to answer me, except to complain that I'm not treating you like a veteran. Get it done.


if u quoted the whole thing it says im stuck which is why I stated if it isn't u and willie I need someone else to solve it
I'm me I'm odd learn to deal with it... all geniuses' are crazy...
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby RedSun » 16 Aug 2018, 17:49

sinnybee wrote:
RedSun wrote:So if we used a no lynch early that'd have just allowed scum to be in more control numbers wise. They would have more voting power.

No!
1) Town always has to outnumber scum by at least one

2) Each day/night usually consists of
a. a town lynch and a town NK or
b. a scum lynch and a town NK
with a) reducing the difference between town and mafia by two, an even number
and b) making no difference between town and mafia (a change of zero, an even number)
a change of an even number leaves an even number as even and it leaves an odd number as odd

in the example of this game, we went from
9:3 to 7:3 (a.)
to 5:3 (a.)
to 4:2 (b.)
with "a." again being a mislynch
9-3=6
7-3=4
5-3=2
4-2=2
so the difference between the number of town and scum players has always been an even number

BUT 1) we only need there to be ONE (odd number) more town than scum player!

The difference between town and scum changes by just one when there is a no lynch and a NK
That's what we've been needing!
And again, the sooner the better!
The no lynch should have been used on Day 1, when the 9:3 ratio meant that it was very likely for town to be killed on D1!
And that's what happened:
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The following is wrong:
RedSun wrote:So if we used a no lynch early that'd have just allowed scum to be in more control numbers wise. They would have more voting power.

A no lynch on D1 would instead have made scum be in less control numbers wise. They would have had less voting power.
The ratio would have only gone down from 9:3 to 8:3 instead of from 9:3 to 7:3.

This would have allowed us to keep town shadow alive.
This would have allowed us another day of scum hunting. Mislynches are common on day one.

8-3=5 (odd number)
The odd difference would have remained throughout the rest of the game with us having wisely used our no lynch asap.

It isn't too late. The no lynch (with a NK) still should be used asap.


So my reasoning behind that statement is we have to lynch someone first right? It's better if the town controls the most deaths possible since it's the town who is choosing and we have visible information on who desired to lynch where. If we allow the scum to pick more people to die then they choose what information we have.
So if on D1 we no lynched we would have 8:3 voting on the first person to die so 28% of votes controlled by scum as opposed to 9:3 where it's 25% of votes controlled by scum. Now this may not make the biggest difference in the beginning in retrospect but at this point scum allowed us the opportunity to keep the numbers 4:2 where they need to convince two of us to move off Willie as opposed to the one tomorrow when it's 3:2. If it's 3:2 the scum only need to convince one person to move off of Willie which is much easier.
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Re: Fable Mafia 11: The Zeppo Day 4

Postby sjg11 » 16 Aug 2018, 20:23

No Lynch (3): Keirador, sinnybee, Telleo
Keirador (1): willie23
Willie23 (1): RedSun

And the day ends with another no lynch. How very civilised of you...
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