Mafia CLXXI: Alien Infection (Town win!)

[Zoomzip]

And for today, nobody is infected. Yet.

yes however based on rules a person has been choosen to become infected already which we also don't know who

Also if you truly think I scum slipped you should be voting me.

[Zoomzip]

Anything else from me? I'll be in and out before deadline, have some errands but should be generally around.

Ciao.

[sjg11]

For instance, a core assumption of wagonomics is that scum don't like to cluster together on the same wagon. This assumption is used to perform some scumhunting, even though there's no particular reason to believe the assumption itself is, generally speaking, true.

We can talk more about this later but... That's not, exactly, how it all works. You do consider distributions, but as a believer in wagonomics, I am challenging SJG in his ideas of a non-cluster right now. I don't think that 1-1 should inherently be preferred to a 2-0 wagon, or preferred enough to make a decision on.

Sometimes the questions are more "Could this wagon be all town? Could there be at least one scum on it? Maybe more?" Distros are useful, but saying "1-1 is a general rule of thumb" is, I think, too simplistic.

Well I think you're misunderstanding me here.

I'm not saying it's a cast-iron 1-1 situation, it never is with wagonomics.

What I AM saying is that when a wagon appears on a townie, there's normally a scum voting on it somehow somewhere. So if condude is town on Day One... the most likely scenario is that there's a scum voting for him. It's not cast-iron. It's not even close. But it IS a legitimately indicative point against Telleo over everyone who is not named Keirador.

Particularly when combined with the Day Two voting data and the potential bussers... yeah the voting data is pointing at Keirador/Telleo. It's not cast-iron, unstoppable certainty. But it is a very legitimate point pointing in the direction of K/Telleo. And it's a point which bears a reasonable amount of weight.

[sjg11]

Right. So. . . you think that if Telleo flips town, I should also be looking at a K lynch? What's happening here? You asked why I singled you out from the EM voters. Should I not? Is dwilt or ZZ more likely? Is this a real concern of yours or a fake concern?

I was wondering why me specifically. In particular at the time it seemed like you were looking at me more than NH too. Which was a bit weird. And no of course I don't expect you to be looking at a K lynch.

She was clearly willing to switch to EM as self-prez, but she hadn't laid the performative groundwork for a scumread there. She'd invested heavily in my issues, but I think it would have been difficult to justify a claim of actually having EM as a #1 scumread.

But shouldn't scum Telleo be working harder to lay the performative groundwork throughout Day Two so that she has a scumread to fall back on EOD2?

Yeah, and her point-blank refusal to do when directly asked is a little concerning. On the other hand, Telleo as any alignment should probably be working harder, so I think we have to chalk some of this up to out-of-game concerns.

To an extent yep. But then a busy scum is generally more readable, in my view, than a non-busy scum. And in this case... yeah I think I'm agreeing with you that it looks like what I'd be expecting from scum Telleo who is low on time rather than from town Telleo who is low on time.

[sjg11]

I mean maybe? Like, can we talk about you not switching to EM at the end of day? You were real concerned about the health of the vote, but as EM starts to gain momentum that's when you double down that perhaps your slot needs to be eliminated.

Like, did you town read EM that strongly? I have an issue there. I mean, I get that self-preservation is overrated, but only when there is a comparable town read on the board. I never got the sense you town read EM, you certainly didn;t defend him, and yet as he became plausible you seems to want to throw yourself on the fire. That seems, and I realize that this is ZoomZip who notoriously doesn't self-defend as town saying this, that seem weird dude.

I actually had EM as 50% likely to be scum. Called one scum in EM/RS but not both. Two things concerned me. First, the actual votes against EM, apart from dwilt, were low-conviction and soft. In that environment it seemed like scum had a lot of slack to push the lynch they wanted. Second, if EM was indeed town (which I still figured to be about 50% likely), then it looked to me like we were looking at an auto-loss: with EM's flip not prompting much in the way of re-examination because it was such a low-conviction lynch in the first place, Telleo would continue howling for my blood and I figured I looked super likely to go down next after a townie EM flip. My flip would also push us closer to the edge, but I figured it would both shed more clarity on the game-state and also be far more likely to push the remaining town into a hard re-set. Basically if I were going to be mislynched anyway, I thought it best that that be done while it wasn't the town's last chance.

But would our chances of winning on Day Three be higher or lower than 50/50 in your view after an EM lynch?

[sjg11]

Yo SJG, if I vote you are you going to yell timezone ambush?

No. I will yell last-minute ambush when there is absolutely no reason to be voting for me over K and Telleo right now.

[Zoomzip]

Yo SJG, if I vote you are you going to yell timezone ambush?

No. I will yell last-minute ambush when there is absolutely no reason to be voting for me over K and Telleo right now.

Cool. I look forward to your engagement with dwiltse then. Since he, um, is voting you.

[sjg11]

Yo SJG, if I vote you are you going to yell timezone ambush?

No. I will yell last-minute ambush when there is absolutely no reason to be voting for me over K and Telleo right now.

Cool. I look forward to your engagement with dwiltse then. Since he, um, is voting you.

His reason is "gut". How do I respond to that? There's literally nothing I can do against it. If he wants to bring up the scumslip I'll speak to that. But he's launched like NOTHING substantive against me.

Besides, I'm too pretty to be Mafia.

Plus I've had to put up with being an Arsenal fan this season. I've suffered enough.

[UFO Fever]

@ dwilt:

My point about Telleo's "mistake" wasn't that she was a dumb scum for it, but in fact the opposite. She made the decision knowing that all experienced players would both quickly see how problematic her vote was, but also that she's too smart of a player to make that mistake as scum. That's why she deliberately chose to do it. So I'm not saying Telleo is a dumb player, I'm saying she's so smart that she made what looks like the dumbest move actually be one of the smartest moves.

As for me just going with the town, that's just not true here. I provided my reasons for why I'm voting Telleo. If you think me going with town makes me scum, then vote me off. If you think me voting with town makes the town worse/less likely to win, then vote for me if you're also town. But if you're going to bitch about me voting with the town but then not do anything about it and put me in an even bigger position to do more damage in the future, then that seems pretty scummy.

[Dwiltse1114]

What potential scum slip by SJG. Although right now I am underwhelmed by your ability to identify a scum slip I mean, did I say I had been chosen or targeted? No. I said I knew I aaant infected yet clearly within a context of I could be chosen and Infected later. So... you know, this better be a better slip than that.

it was what I was referring to I somehow say that sjg wrote it that's my bad