Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby Keirador » 29 Jan 2018, 21:02

ExiledAtHome wrote:Oh, this is precious. I was afraid that this was how you'd swing it, Keir. I can't even really be mad at you, though. It"s a masterful act. You've been targeting Kim for this play since LYLO started, laying out the case for her, but not really buying it, leaving in a huff, but entrusting she'd figure it out, talking up how you didn't want to influence her or lead her to conclusions, but happy to see her arriving at the right answer anyway. The manipulation has been subtle, but palpable, at least to me. The frustratingly genius part is that you were able to do this without even really making a case against me, you just had to maintain a dogmatic rigor to a process of elimination argument that rests on the indelible assumption that you're town, and wait for Kim to come around. I've already unwisely telegraphed that I'd hardly be around today, so you simply waited me out keeping your big finale finish in your pocket as long as possible conveniently finding the energy and focus to return last night after I went to bed knowing I can't adequately make much of a counter push today in the limited time I've already established I'd be constrained by.

*slow clap*

No, not since LYLO started. . . since yesterday. Mere hours into the Day, along with my reveal, was my stated belief that a GPD/EAH lynch wins it on process of elimination. I spent the rest of the day townreading you because my expectation was that scum-EAH needs to bust up that POE and you weren't doing it, but now it appears you never understood that that was my theory of the game, if I'm to take you at your word. But don't pretend there wasn't plenty of time here.
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby Keirador » 29 Jan 2018, 21:04

ExiledAtHome wrote:
kimbyrle wrote:Never underestimate exactly how much I resent the implication that I was incapable of reaching this conclusion through my own interactions with you, my own observations, and my own critical thinking.


I assume Keir was banking on just that. That he did everything in his power to subtly coax that effort along by entrusting you to figure it out on your own while he hid under a rock doesn't make it any less manipulative.

A challenge for the reader: how does someone simultaneously do everything in their power to coax an effort along while hiding under a rock? Answer to the riddle will be revealed in next week's issue!
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby Keirador » 29 Jan 2018, 21:12

ExiledAtHome wrote:When Keir says that he couldn't have saved ZZ as scum because ZZ was too dangerous to Sjg, I'm going to counter that if ZZ was the threat Keir claims he was, the scumteam was free to NK him. That's not trying to wipe away Keir's towncred, that's me poking a hole in a logical fallacy.

I have two points here. Tonally, I still find it strange you're using the verbiage "if ZZ was the threat Keir claims he was," like that's still something up for debate. ZZ flipped blue. His death-curse on D1 was sjg, and sjg was red. He put in a lot of the work D2 that had sjg as the lynch leader even before Nanook revealed. He was a threat. That chapter is closed.

Second, the mechanical point you're ignoring/overlooking/minimizing is that several townies ended D1 with a newly invigorated townread on ZZ, making him a very likely target, from the scum's POV, for the Doc order. The kill of Parabellum over a more vocal townie with a longer history of successful scum-hunting indicates the scum weren't trying to take down the biggest threats, they were trying to make innocuous night kills. But why am I telling you that, right?
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby Keirador » 29 Jan 2018, 21:38

kimbyrle wrote:It's entertaining that you're choosing to argue only with the peripheral supporting parts of my decision. The single major thing it comes down to is this:

Town Keir did townie things. Scum Keir took huge risks that he didn't even need to.

Town EAH either built a case he didn't think would serve any purpose, or tunneled so hard on a case that he didn't listen to two other townies and one scum who tore it down on nearly every axis of reasonability. Scum EAH did the only thing that had a ghost of a chance to save the game.

THAT'S Occam's Razor.

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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby Keirador » 29 Jan 2018, 21:51

ExiledAtHome wrote:The theory for scumKeir can be made whether he's blocker or not,

It can be made, but not like super well. I know you hate the word, but again, if Nanook survives to IR me, that's. . . auto-loss. Like you've got me as scum here who sees acting like town as the Prime Directive, and avoiding losing the game as a secondary objective. I just don't super care if I lose in this scum narrative. Or I'm so sure I can predict CopNanook's IR with perfect accuracy, AND so sure I won't be counter-claimed as Doc, that the conjoined risk here doesn't even faze me.

ExiledAtHome wrote:and this alleged massive risk that he undertook in claiming Doc is the biggest fraud perpetrated in this game to date. It's not only something I've stressed, it's something ZZ also agreed with, and it's something you yourself, Kim, were arguing on D3! How you've suddenly reversed course on that premise when it's convenient to making your Occam's Razor case is just bad play. Town or scum, it's bad.

Low probability. Catastrophic impact. More than one way to measure risk. And here you're back to me being a goddamned genius at guessing who the Doc is, but still pretty much a dunce at guessing who the Cop is. Turns out, just dunce.
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby kimpossible » 29 Jan 2018, 22:17

ExiledAtHome wrote:and this alleged massive risk that he undertook in claiming Doc is the biggest fraud perpetrated in this game to date. It's not only something I've stressed, it's something ZZ also agreed with, and it's something you yourself, Kim, were arguing on D3! How you've suddenly reversed course on that premise when it's convenient to making your Occam's Razor case is just bad play. Town or scum, it's bad.

Perhaps "huge" was an unnecessary adjective in my summation, but the thing I've come around to is the realization that scumKeir didn't need to take any risk at that point. He already had towncred from his D1 and D2 actions. Is it a move I think scumKeir could have made? Yes, it still is. I think that's within his range. What I no longer believe (and you seem to think this is a crazy concept, but I actually re-evaluated and changed my mind!) is that it's a risk he would have chosen to take, because he didn't need to.
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby ExiledAtHome » 29 Jan 2018, 22:34

kimbyrle wrote:
ExiledAtHome wrote:and this alleged massive risk that he undertook in claiming Doc is the biggest fraud perpetrated in this game to date. It's not only something I've stressed, it's something ZZ also agreed with, and it's something you yourself, Kim, were arguing on D3! How you've suddenly reversed course on that premise when it's convenient to making your Occam's Razor case is just bad play. Town or scum, it's bad.

Perhaps "huge" was an unnecessary adjective in my summation, but the thing I've come around to is the realization that scumKeir didn't need to take any risk at that point. He already had towncred from his D1 and D2 actions. Is it a move I think scumKeir could have made? Yes, it still is. I think that's within his range. What I no longer believe (and you seem to think this is a crazy concept, but I actually re-evaluated and changed my mind!) is that it's a risk he would have chosen to take, because he didn't need to.


It's not a crazy concept to change your mind.

It's a crazy concept to go from "Keir, you took no risk!" to "EAH, Keir took huge risk!" without any in-thread indications as to how you evolved on that issue. Just now, for the first time, you've put into words how you got from A to B (which is more like C, now).

You could have said a long time ago that you see some risk, and are not sure why Keir takes on any risk in his situation. That would have provided a much clearer look into your process.
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby kimpossible » 29 Jan 2018, 22:40

ExiledAtHome wrote:
kimbyrle wrote:
ExiledAtHome wrote:and this alleged massive risk that he undertook in claiming Doc is the biggest fraud perpetrated in this game to date. It's not only something I've stressed, it's something ZZ also agreed with, and it's something you yourself, Kim, were arguing on D3! How you've suddenly reversed course on that premise when it's convenient to making your Occam's Razor case is just bad play. Town or scum, it's bad.

Perhaps "huge" was an unnecessary adjective in my summation, but the thing I've come around to is the realization that scumKeir didn't need to take any risk at that point. He already had towncred from his D1 and D2 actions. Is it a move I think scumKeir could have made? Yes, it still is. I think that's within his range. What I no longer believe (and you seem to think this is a crazy concept, but I actually re-evaluated and changed my mind!) is that it's a risk he would have chosen to take, because he didn't need to.


It's not a crazy concept to change your mind.

It's a crazy concept to go from "Keir, you took no risk!" to "EAH, Keir took huge risk!" without any in-thread indications as to how you evolved on that issue. Just now, for the first time, you've put into words how you got from A to B (which is more like C, now).

You could have said a long time ago that you see some risk, and are not sure why Keir takes on any risk in his situation. That would have provided a much clearer look into your process.

I could have, had I decided it a long time ago. There came a point (yesterday evening, right around when I had finished stomping around with a margarita in my hand yelling about both of you) that I decided I needed to just spend some time thinking things through without putting it all in front of people who I know for a fact are one town and one scum, and therefore only 50% of what they have to say means anything. That thinking took place over the course of the evening and this morning, and included some of the time I spent reading you and Keir's interactions and asking some final questions of you last night.
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby kimpossible » 29 Jan 2018, 22:46

kimbyrle wrote:Town Keir did townie things. Scum Keir took huge risks that he didn't even need to.

Strike the word "huge" and I think it's pretty clear here that I meant whatever it is you're defining as "C" instead of "B". He took risks he didn't even need to.
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Re: Mafia CLXVIII: Normal Mafia - D4

Postby ExiledAtHome » 29 Jan 2018, 22:52

Keirador wrote:
ExiledAtHome wrote:Oh, this is precious. I was afraid that this was how you'd swing it, Keir. I can't even really be mad at you, though. It"s a masterful act. You've been targeting Kim for this play since LYLO started, laying out the case for her, but not really buying it, leaving in a huff, but entrusting she'd figure it out, talking up how you didn't want to influence her or lead her to conclusions, but happy to see her arriving at the right answer anyway. The manipulation has been subtle, but palpable, at least to me. The frustratingly genius part is that you were able to do this without even really making a case against me, you just had to maintain a dogmatic rigor to a process of elimination argument that rests on the indelible assumption that you're town, and wait for Kim to come around. I've already unwisely telegraphed that I'd hardly be around today, so you simply waited me out keeping your big finale finish in your pocket as long as possible conveniently finding the energy and focus to return last night after I went to bed knowing I can't adequately make much of a counter push today in the limited time I've already established I'd be constrained by.

*slow clap*

No, not since LYLO started. . . since yesterday. Mere hours into the Day, along with my reveal, was my stated belief that a GPD/EAH lynch wins it on process of elimination. I spent the rest of the day townreading you because my expectation was that scum-EAH needs to bust up that POE and you weren't doing it, but now it appears you never understood that that was my theory of the game, if I'm to take you at your word. But don't pretend there wasn't plenty of time here.


My above comment specifically makes note of your POE, and how you leveraged that POE to deflect Kim's efforts from looking at you to looking at me by just digging in your heels and proclaiming you were set, and wouldn't be around much giving her nowhere to engage but with me. I mean you even said you didn't really want to make too many points about me because you were concerned that might color Kim's perception, and have her dismiss those points because they're coming from you. Your entire strategy was mental, to get Kim from A to B on her own, without actually trying to engage with her and argue your case. That's manipulation. It doesn't mean Kim didn't arrive at her conclusions on her own --she did-- but it wasn't because you stood there and took the heat and came away looking cleaner, its because you only gave her one avenue to engage for a large swath of LYLO. It's not a dirty way to play, but only two people really spent time examining more than one theory today, and you ain't one of them.
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