Mafia CLXIII: Insider - Game Over -- Insider Wins!

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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby condude1 » 07 Aug 2017, 08:03

Telleo wrote:
condude1 wrote:
Telleo wrote:@Condude: I'm interested in your reaction to Sjg's plan. You were pushing your plan for quite a while, and then Sjg comes in, drops his, and I say sure, then you immediately adopt it. What about it seemed superior to your own plan, IYO, and why did you adopt it so quickly?


I stuck by the claim that my plan was the better of the two. People had already started following Sjg's (Joe, I think), and time was running low. I thought it was a bit annoying that Sjg came in late to the party and managed to veto all the discussion we'd been doing, but it wasn't particularly scummy.

So I thought mine was superior, but Sjg's was fine too. No real reason his doesn't serve the same function that mine was intended to. I adopted it quickly because we needed to get going on following one of the plans if we wanted stuff to happen.


One of the key components that you and I were discussing was the number of questions each player should get to ask. Your concern on this matter was that too many questions would allow the Insider to hide more efficiently. In fact, this was not a secondary feature on your plan, it was the central tenet. Sjg's plan had no such limitations. Why did you find that to serve the same function as yours?

I supported Sjg's plan fully expecting you to jump down my throat about moving towards a plan that was less limiting than his. I was surprised to find no objection, no discussion, nothing. Even in moving to adopt the plan on time restrictions, you found nothing to be worth commenting on?


The only real goal of my plan was to slow things down enough that we'd have a situation where the insider felt the heat towards EOD. Sjg's plan of one person asking, then saying who's next is slow enough I figured they'd have pretty much the same effect. Different methods of reaching that goal, but they both reach the same goal. As we saw, I was right that his plan slowed things down enough to make EOD interesting.
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby condude1 » 07 Aug 2017, 08:11

JoeHoya06 wrote:
condude1 wrote:
JoeHoya06 wrote:Condude's seemed to designed to force The Insider's hand, but, as you may remember from my handful of mafia games, such an immediate attempt to boss the game sends an army of red flags up in my mind. I think InsiderDude could easily craft a plan that seems designed to smoke out The Insider while at the same time having something in his back pocket to counter it (since he was the one that created it). And that out may very well have been the "well, it's almost the deadline, so forget the quotas and the order thing, let's get the phrase" situation.


So my plan was to give myself an out. Like, you know, leaving an hour before deadline with the answer still unguessed? On top of that, everyone in-thread had said they were pretty much clueless when I left. I knew it wasn't an issue, because there was a decent shot that the insider would save us if all else failed. It worked out.


Are you asking a question here or being sarcastic? I can't discern your tone. Your initial plan could very easily have been to jump back on before the deadline if need be; we'll never know. And you encouraged "charadesing" the answer late on; what better way for InsiderDude to feel pretty confident we'd get the phrase – as you have said you were – without having to take on responsibility for getting us there?


That question was sarcastic. I mentioned charadesing the answer, and also said I really didn't want to and ended up avoiding it completely. So yeah, scumCondude got really lucky at EOD that Joe magically found "apartment house", when it seemed no one had a clue what that second word could be. TownCondude, of course, knew we were safe because someone would come to our rescue:

condude1 wrote:Beavis, there's no way we lose this. Even if we somehow have trouble solving it in the next hour and a half, someone's going to have a stroke of inspiration and solve it. Just watch.


Turns out it was Joe who had that last minute stroke of inspiration. You claim I'm voting you because you found the lightswitch. I'm voting you because you walked up to a seemingly random point on the wall, and flicked it on. I'm saying that you didn't "find" anything, but instead knew it the whole time. Is there anything else to be looking for? What do you think we should use to determine our scumreads, and who is that read?
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Re: Insider: Phase 1

Postby sjg11 » 07 Aug 2017, 08:21

Telleo wrote:Yeah. Hm. Not sure where I stand re: which is more scummy IMO, Keir's non-activity or Condude's manipulativeness. Need to re-read Condude from the perspective that he's town and see if that makes sense at all. Probably won't get to it until this evening, so in the meantime I wouldn't mind an outside opinion or four.

Give me evidence of condude's manipulativeness as I haven't noticed that thus far.
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby Keirador » 07 Aug 2017, 08:27

Hey sjg. What do you think of my meta read that you shouldn't be in the POE because scum sjg wouldn't consider the effort you've put forth in this game to be worthy play?
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby sjg11 » 07 Aug 2017, 08:45

Keirador wrote:Hey sjg. What do you think of my meta read that you shouldn't be in the POE because scum sjg wouldn't consider the effort you've put forth in this game to be worthy play?

Thing is it's not a case of effort, it's one of busyness. Yesterday evening was busy and so I wasn't around at EoD when I would have wanted to be otherwise. That pretty much applies whether I'm town, Mafia, or a sock puppet.

So, no my inactivity is not indicative. Although I do also admit that I haven't been scum in a while so I'm going to be pretty hyped the next time I'm Mafia in a game.
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby sjg11 » 07 Aug 2017, 09:11

So, reads.

Firstly Keirador. I reckon he's town. Partly because his early questions indicate a townie mindset. Partly because he left at EoD while there was a large risk that the town would not get the answer and partly because I reckon he'd be extra pumped as Mafia considering that he hasn't been Mafia in a LONG time (and I believe that Keirador enjoys being Mafia as opposed to, say, Zoomzip.

Telleo... no sure. Keirador, could you go into more detail as to why Telleo's questions are town indicative? Not sure I'm with you on that yet.

Beavis is an unknown quantity currently, does anyone have anything on him?

Joe... I can easily see him as the Insider. That having been said, we have the town explanation for his guess. Moreover, if Joe is Mafia he could have started charades-ing it. Yet he didn't, he guessed the answer after a Google search. Am I the only one who thinks that that's a bit of a risk for insider Joe? Why stick your neck out when you don't have to? Seems like atypical Insider play to me... actually typing this up makes me think that Joe ISN'T the Insider in this case.

Honestly my biggest concern currently is condude. He did leave before the end of the day but he had also left an instruction manual in the thread for how to find the answer quickly if we had to. He was sorted for answering the question, if we got stuck we just needed to Charades it and we were sorted. And he's now immediately in on, in my view, the likely patsy for this game Joe. Now... sjg doesn't like condude. He doesn't like condude at all.
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby beavis » 07 Aug 2017, 12:35

sjg11 wrote: Yet he didn't, he guessed the answer after a Google search. Am I the only one who thinks that that's a bit of a risk for insider Joe? Why stick your neck out when you don't have to? Seems like atypical Insider play to me... actually typing this up makes me think that Joe ISN'T the Insider in this case. .


Yeah I don't think that the fact eh brought up googling is relevant because four of us were googling anyway for words which could work, and as he said it was on the first page of results a few times, and so could have just got lucky. There wasn't many words left to check and availability of people meant that trying any phrase is a valid method for any player.

As we never had any structure on how to play to find the insider other than as soon as someone gets a "Yes" burn them at the steak we made this very hard for ourselves.

The only person who I don't think is the insider is Keirador, and I will need to read most of these posts again to see is people are pointing frequently in the right direction and doing nothing, or pointing in entirely the wrong direction to avoid suspicion.

I know I am an unknown quantity, you have all probably noticed this is my first play-by-forum game, and I probably could have helped more, but every question I asked was either shot down or ignored (such as when I asked what peoples plans to find the insider were).
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby JoeHoya06 » 07 Aug 2017, 17:08

condude1 wrote:I'm voting you because you walked up to a seemingly random point on the wall, and flicked it on. I'm saying that you didn't "find" anything, but instead knew it the whole time. Is there anything else to be looking for? What do you think we should use to determine our scumreads, and who is that read?


Was Google the light switch? Because at least three of us said we searched for answers, and somehow, an answer that showed up on every single link I clicked managed to elude you and Keirador. Like, I can't get past that, but I can't reconcile that both of you magically didn't come across it, either by happenstance or on purpose, since only one of you can be The Insider. I think it's much more likely that one of you missed it, and the other saw it and ignored it because you knew it was the answer, or lied about having searched in the first place.

As to your second question, taking a look at people's questions and general approach to the game was my plan entering the game. On the first point, SJG's "residential building" question was a huge turning point, more than any other in my opinion. Keirador not asking any questions until I called him out, and then asking his Postal Service question, seemed strange to me, but I don't think it was an excessively helpful question.

On the second, I've outlined why Keirador was my top candidate, and you're probably 1A, because I think you're plenty good enough at mafia to influence an entire group, especially one this small. If your desire to tamp down the number of questions asked left us needing a little bit of help at the end, – say, I dunno, maybe throwing out a bunch of synonyms for the phrase in the hopes that somebody else would do the same and find the right one? – you could provide it without seeming like it came from out of the blue. You tried to be a town leader right from the get-go, and in that role, could easily worm your way out of the "hey, how did you get that?" questions if need be.

So right now, I can't decide between the two of you, but ideally, we'll have an extra day to parse it out.

Meanwhile, ask yourself two questions:

1) Do you think we were close to getting the phrase at the end of the day? The answer to this one seems to be yes, and I would agree. Assuming we had people in the thread, between Googling and tossing out "Does it start with the letter __?" questions, we'd have gotten there.

2) Assuming the answer to number one is "yes," if I was The Insider, why would I put myself – and only myself – at risk for 24 hours when just sitting tight would have very likely still gotten us the phrase? You've played mafia with me a couple times already, and you know I put more value than I probably should on surviving. Why would I hold the sword up to my throat for you if I was The Insider?
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby condude1 » 07 Aug 2017, 17:43

sjg11 wrote:
Honestly my biggest concern currently is condude. He did leave before the end of the day but he had also left an instruction manual in the thread for how to find the answer quickly if we had to. He was sorted for answering the question, if we got stuck we just needed to Charades it and we were sorted. And he's now immediately in on, in my view, the likely patsy for this game Joe. Now... sjg doesn't like condude. He doesn't like condude at all.


Sorry, do you actually have a reason to scumread me? I'm voting for someone you view as an easy vote, and... I left before EOD? That's weak Sjg, ESPECIALLY since you are clearly OK with a Joe vote - you considered it yourself! Why do you think charadesing it would attract less attention than googling it? We'd said repeatedly how anti-town charadesing it was.

Also, how are you differentiating Keirador and myself WRT EOD play?

JoeHoya06 wrote:
condude1 wrote:I'm voting you because you walked up to a seemingly random point on the wall, and flicked it on. I'm saying that you didn't "find" anything, but instead knew it the whole time. Is there anything else to be looking for? What do you think we should use to determine our scumreads, and who is that read?


Was Google the light switch? Because at least three of us said we searched for answers, and somehow, an answer that showed up on every single link I clicked managed to elude you and Keirador.


This is emphatically false. You bolded and italicized something you know is incorrect. Kinda weird. The third result doesn't have apartment house as an option, but does have flat as an option. Again, why house over flat or tenement? Co-op showed up without the word apartment before it, yet you guessed it no problem.

Anyways, my case against you isn't even premised upon the fact that you got it right. It's that you were so cautious to document how you came to those guesses. The rest of us were throwing out guesses randomly, while you cite your source, make sure your method is acceptable etc. It's way more caution than any of us showed, and shows that you were worried about how that guess would be looked at in the future. Of course, no one else knew their guess would be analyzed carefully in the future.
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Re: Insider: Phase 2

Postby JoeHoya06 » 07 Aug 2017, 18:02

condude1 wrote:This is emphatically false. You bolded and italicized something you know is incorrect. Kinda weird. The third result doesn't have apartment house as an option, but does have flat as an option. Again, why house over flat or tenement? Co-op showed up without the word apartment before it, yet you guessed it no problem.


Does Google provide different results to different people? If so, I can see why you'd say this. If not, then it's you who is the emphatic liar, not me. It was there in each of the first five links that showed up. Had the answer not been "apartment house," I'd have clicked number six, and number seven, on and on, and I'm willing to bet it would be on every...single...list.

As I previously answered, "apartment" and "flat" mean the same thing. I had never heard the phrase "apartment house" before, but I still found it infinitely more likely to be the phrase than "apartment apartment."

condude1 wrote:Anyways, my case against you isn't even premised upon the fact that you got it right. It's that you were so cautious to document how you came to those guesses. The rest of us were throwing out guesses randomly, while you cite your source, make sure your method is acceptable etc.


I already explained my reasoning. I thought I had possibly trapped The Insider. Look at it like this:

[your favorite TV detective]: "I know it was you, Johnny. Just admit it. You were there."
Johnny: "I wasn't there! You can't prove I was there!"
[your favorite TV detective]: "Oh yeah? Then how do you explain THIS?"
::[your favorite TV detective] reveals a photograph of Johnny at the scene of the crime::

In this analogy, my link to a page of links is the photograph. Every mafia game I've played, people always ask me to "show my work." So I established that others had followed a similar process and then I shared the thing that led me to somehow be the only one to guess the answer basically right after beginning a search. The entire process, from establishing that you guys had used an internet search, to the evidence that said internet search should have given you options that you hadn't looked at that lo and behold turned out to include the correct one, is right there in the thread.

condude1 wrote:It's way more caution than any of us showed, and shows that you were worried about how that guess would be looked at in the future. Of course, no one else knew their guess would be analyzed carefully in the future.


This is total horseshit. Who came into the game thinking their guesses wouldn't be analyzed?!? THAT WAS THE POINT OF THE ENTIRE EXERCISE.
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