Mafia CLXIII: Insider - Game Over -- Insider Wins!

[condude1]

We lose equally if we either don't guess the word or don't guess the Insider, right? So we have no incentive to even try to guess the phrase without the Insider's help. I'm sure we could guess it alone, which is the primary reason why we shouldn't even try. Better to play chicken and force the Insider to tip their hand at least a little.

So your plan is to do nothing?

Wonderful. I can see already that this will be a productive conversation.

If we were allowed to, doing nothing would be by FAR the optimal solution. We force the insider to take a hardline stance against it. We can't though, because ZZ foresaw this and put a rule up against it.

[condude1]

The game ends in a loss if we do not discover the phrase. I would rather begin a process that actually moves us forward, rather than blindly stumbling about until we accidentally do something right. I expect, especially in the early stages of asking questions, to not be productive in finding the insider. Towards the end, perhaps we might be able to see someone who makes odd leaps of logic, or connects the dots too quickly. Claiming that a method that actively helps us find the phrase is "not a great start" is not a great start, Condude.

You said yourself that finding the phrase wasn't a problem. It's trivial to find the phrase in... 20 posts? The challenge is to do it in a way that isn't so trivial.

Assume the phrase is "Kill two birds with one stone", how many questions does it take?

Post 1:

5 words or fewer?
First word's first letter N-Z?
First word's second letter N-Z?

Answer: No, no, no

Post 2:

7 words or fewer?
First word's first letter A-H?
First word's second letter A-H?

Answer: Yes, no, no

Post 3:

6 words?
First word's first letter i, j, or k?
First word's second letter i, j, or k?

Answer: Yes, yes, yes

Post 4:

First word 5 or fewer letters?
First word first letter i or j?
First word second letter i or j?

Answer: Yes, yes, no

We now know it starts with a k. Keep going, within about 10 posts we'd have a very good idea of what the phrase is (something like "Kill tw...")

Heck, we could play 3 games of 2-player hangman to guess the first three words. That's probably even easier. The hangman idea fails because the insider blends in perfectly.

The point is, finding the phrase isn't the problem. Finding the insider is. You figured this out, and proceeded to completely ignore your own advice. That's why I view you as a likely insider right now.

[condude1]

Agree with condude that I don't love Telleo's opening of "the hard part is finding the Insider, now let's get to work solving the puzzle," but condude then you go and do the same thing, no?

I almost posted a follow-up explaining why my post is different. The way I'm asking questions is qualititative. If someone starts pinging the right questions to narrow down the phrase this way, we can get suspicious. For example, say it's a word, and the word is dynamite. If someone asks "Is it explosive?" out of the blue, that's a massive red flag. This means that the insider has to play a game of chicken, giving us as little information as possible, while making sure we solve the puzzle.

Telleo's method is so terrible because we get no information about the insider. Her questions are over/unders effectively. What do we learn if the phrase has fewer than 5 words? If it has more than 5 words? Nothing either way.

The reason we can't just do nothing to solve this and let the insider guide us is the following rule:

The GM reserves the right to award the game to the Insider if he feels a sufficient effort to guess the word or phrase was not made by the Commons.

. We need to make a sufficient effort after it. That's why my method is superior to Telleo's - we don't run afoul of this rule, and we give the insider enough rope to hang themselves.

Your method is to stumble blindly in the dark and then blame the one who accidentally finds the light switch. This is beyond useless. Get better.

Do you have a better solution? Your plan is to walk up to the light switch, turn it on, and then try to figure out who knew where it was. Isn't it a bit easier to find out who didn't know where that switch is BEFORE it's on?

[condude1]

FUDDIN: I would like to ask that you respond to Telleo's questions with "Maybe?", since her questions do nothing to find the insider.

Beyond unacceptable. Don't lock me out of the game because you don't like my methods.

I'm not locking you out of the game. I'm saying that your methods are extremely damaging to the town and will likely lead us to a loss.

Although, I should have been clearer. I meant the three questions that you had asked already. I just noticed that my post could be read as asking him to ignore ALL of your questions ever. The three questions you asked do nothing to help us solve the actual problem that we're faced with - finding the insider.

[Fuddin]

Hi everyone! I'm Fuddin, and I am The Master, in more ways than one (or so I would like to imagine). According to the rules, I can't debate or add commentary in this phase except to answer questions, so I will not say anything else in this phase except to quote questions and answer them. I will answer questions in large and orange, because I like orange. So, here goes:

Well.

Finding the phrase, given 48 hours, shouldn't be too difficult, I don't think. I'm more concerned with how we'll identify the person who knows the phrase. I have a few half formed thoughts, but for now, I think our easiest route to learning the phrase is to play this like charades - step one, we need the number of words, then we go word-by-word to the ID. To that end...



ARE THERE AN EVEN NUMBER OF WORDS IN THE PHRASE?

DOES THE PHRASE CONTAIN FIVE OR FEWER WORDS?

DOES THE PHRASE CONTAIN NECESSARY PUNCTUATION?

1) Yes.

2) Yes.

3) No.

[condude1]

So far we have three approaches to the game:

Keirador suggests that the town do nothing, and force the insider to tip their hand. This, as per the rules, is a victory for the insider. In addition, it's playing against our victory condition, since we ALSO lose if the phrase is not guessed.

Condude suggests we shout out questions, then attack anyone who gets the right answer. Because that's the best way to find the insider. Condude, think this through. Look to your dynamite suggestion. What's to stop me from saying "Yo, Condude was suspiciously close right off the bat" should the phrase turn out to actually be "Two birds with one stone?"

And we have my approach. Ask questions that begin moving us forward. No matter the answer, we become closer to the phrase with every one. And we STILL have the option to make judgement calls about someone jumping too quickly towards the answer. It's the best path. Get on board.

As I've said repeatedly, we could find the phrase in about 6 active hours if it becomes desperate. I could do it solo with a bot that posts nonsense questions every hour to refresh my questioning ability.

PEOPLE: THE THREAT IS THE INSIDER, NOT FAILING TO FIND THE PHRASE.

[condude1]

Pretend this is a game of mafia. Look for the informed minority. Screw the phrase for now, worst case we find it very close to EOD.

[Fuddin]

This way, at least, if we're having a hard time coming to the right answer, the Insider will be forced to guide us in the right direction.

Does the phrase/word reference living organisms?
Does the word/phrase reference man-made structures?
Does the word/phrase reference war/fighting/violence?

When I say reference, I don't necessarily mean that it uses those words. "To kill 2 birds with 1 stone", for example, would fall under #1 and #3, but not #2.

1) No.

2) Yes.

3) No.

[Fuddin]

Odd that Telleo was quick to pass off finding the insider...

Would someone 50 years ago understand what the phrase means?

Yes.

[Keirador]

Agree with condude that I don't love Telleo's opening of "the hard part is finding the Insider, now let's get to work solving the puzzle," but condude then you go and do the same thing, no?

We have significantly more time to find the insider than we do to find the answer to the puzzle. Prioritize properly.

All I can really say here is condude drank your milkshake on this one. The priority is the Insider. The sole priority. As long as Fuddin is sufficiently active, figuring out the phrase is trivial, and if we do it in a trivial, mechanical sense, we've given ourselves no information on the Insider. We have to drag our feet a little, because if town just figures out the phrase themselves in a neat and orderly fashion, all we've done is clear the insignificant hurdle and send ourselves to the end-game with a 5/6 chance of losing to the Insider.