Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D5

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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby sjg11 » 12 May 2017, 23:37

Zoomzip wrote:
Jack007 wrote:sjg11


I am disappointed by this trolling effort.

As am I, I expect a higher level of trolling from you Jack.
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby Telleo » 13 May 2017, 00:08

Eh. I thought it wasn't bad.
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby Nanook » 13 May 2017, 12:26

SJG wrote:Nanook, all you've done so far is to propose a narrative that has ZZ as Mafia. A plausible narrative but not one that is ever going to make me switch unless you have some unbelievably strong behavioural stuff to back it up with. I've recently re-read ZZ and saw nothing which makes me want to switch. Basically, you need to build a really strong case for me to even think about switching. You haven't yet. In fact throwing your arms up so early is only making me less likely to ever switch here.

Look at this from my perspective for a moment. In order to not be mislynched, I have to convince you and Telleo of my case. Telleo has barely shown up yesterday and today, while you spent yesterday setting impossible standards before you'd even listen to a case that was reasonable at the time. Those are the people I'd have to convince, because obviously neither Jack nor ZZ is going to vote for each other. So I'm kind of at the "what's the point?" stage here. You're too busy patting your own back to consider you might be wrong for even a minute, and Telleo hasn't bothered to do her own work since D2. ZZ's the only one that really engaged in my case yesterday against Jack, but given what I know now, that's almost certainly just so that he could stay in my blindspot.


On the off chance anyone is interested in still playing. Look at ZZ's D2.

He starts off on condude. Skeptical of the SJG case against me and Zubb--seems willing to accept my reason for lying (maybe because he himself is lying about his role?). Starts a policy lynch against Jack while we're in the middle of dealing with the now gaining momentum Nanook/Zubb case (drawing attention away from his scum partner, Zubb). Then moves back to condude after Jack calls his bluff. This seems to me like it could be a way to ensure that the Zubb/Nanook case doesn't happen until D3, by drawing attention away with the Jack policy lynch, then reverting back to the other wagon in condude, and counting on being able to draw one more vote to the case (he had his, Zubb's justifiable self-preservation vote, and mine (I was pretty clear from early in the day that I thought condude was scum, plus I had to catch the OW before the convert or I'd be mislynched) that he could reliably count on).

Is this indicative? Well, it's not a smoking gun, but I think it paints a fairly compelling picture. ZZ doesn't want Zubb lynched until D3, so he spends D2 making the most of a golden gift basket in the form of Jack's stubbornness, distracting the town enough to push a condude case through (which, admittedly, partly my fault, since I thought condude was scum). Once D3 rolls around, it's to their advantage for Zubb to be lynched--like ZZ said yesterday, I'm basically a mechanical lynch after Zubb flipped scum. So all ZZ has to do is convert Jack, sit back, and watch me get mislynched. He spends D2 and 3 buddying me, because he knows that even if I figure it out D4, it'll be too late, whereas if I'd put the pieces together instead of being blinded by Jack D3, I might have been able to build enough momentum, when people were actually paying attention to the game still and not on auto-pilot.


The only thing I'm worried about in this case (besides my impending mislynch), is the nagging voice in the back of my head that says maybe SJG did have enough information as a redirector to be able to mimic a tracker. I mean, I haven't thought it's likely to this point, but...maybe, if his redirector ability is of the "Redirect person X to person Y" flavor rather than a deflector style power (I think I'm using that terminology right!)...then if he converted Zubb N1...he could say I lied without worry of repercussions, because even if I had been pure vanilla as I claimed, there's no way of proving that, and if I had any targeting power than I would've had to have visited Zubb thanks to his redirect. It still feels kind of like a reach to me, but...it's possible, and there's a niggling voice in the back of my head that says it might be more likely than ZZ as the OW. I don't know, but without people invested in playing still, I guess we'll find out in the AAR.
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby Telleo » 13 May 2017, 13:05

Ok Nanook. So why does ZZ suggest to Sjg that we lynch Zubb over you, given that he knows that Zubb is his teammate? Why doesn't he just let himself be convinced, let you die, then say "Oh look, Nanook was town, guess Sjg's full of shit, let's lynch him." That seems like a fairly strong behavioral indicator that he's not the scum with Zubb, right?
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby Nanook » 13 May 2017, 14:11

Telleo wrote:Ok Nanook. So why does ZZ suggest to Sjg that we lynch Zubb over you, given that he knows that Zubb is his teammate? Why doesn't he just let himself be convinced, let you die, then say "Oh look, Nanook was town, guess Sjg's full of shit, let's lynch him." That seems like a fairly strong behavioral indicator that he's not the scum with Zubb, right?

Oh wow, nice of you to actually make an appearance.

I think it makes some sense in terms of trying to establish credibility. Especially as it came pre-Jack policy lynch, it could've been a way of taking an easy pro-town looking position, before using the Jack policy lynch stuff to draw the town's attention away from the case and make a pivot back towards condude easier. Although I will admit, it doesn't entirely make sense to me--partly why I'm letting some doubts about SJG to creep in, because ZZ's the person that makes the most sense to me as the redirector mechanically...but there are a few things about his game that I look at, and it makes me think he's town. So I guess I don't really have an answer for you--we'll have to wait for him to enlighten us in the AAR, I suppose.
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby sjg11 » 13 May 2017, 14:25

nanooktheeskimo wrote:Look at this from my perspective for a moment. In order to not be mislynched, I have to convince you and Telleo of my case. Telleo has barely shown up yesterday and today, while you spent yesterday setting impossible standards before you'd even listen to a case that was reasonable at the time. Those are the people I'd have to convince, because obviously neither Jack nor ZZ is going to vote for each other. So I'm kind of at the "what's the point?" stage here. You're too busy patting your own back to consider you might be wrong for even a minute, and Telleo hasn't bothered to do her own work since D2. ZZ's the only one that really engaged in my case yesterday against Jack, but given what I know now, that's almost certainly just so that he could stay in my blindspot.

Yes, the fact that you haven't provided a case on Zip yet is me and Telleo's fault.
He starts off on condude. Skeptical of the SJG case against me and Zubb--seems willing to accept my reason for lying (maybe because he himself is lying about his role?). Starts a policy lynch against Jack while we're in the middle of dealing with the now gaining momentum Nanook/Zubb case (drawing attention away from his scum partner, Zubb). Then moves back to condude after Jack calls his bluff. This seems to me like it could be a way to ensure that the Zubb/Nanook case doesn't happen until D3, by drawing attention away with the Jack policy lynch, then reverting back to the other wagon in condude, and counting on being able to draw one more vote to the case (he had his, Zubb's justifiable self-preservation vote, and mine (I was pretty clear from early in the day that I thought condude was scum, plus I had to catch the OW before the convert or I'd be mislynched) that he could reliably count on).

So how do I differentiate between you and Zip based on this? You also had a role in the Jack distraction and also had a role in the condude mislynch. In fact you were closer to suggesting an actual lynch of Jack for being Mafia than Zip was.
Is this indicative? Well, it's not a smoking gun, but I think it paints a fairly compelling picture. ZZ doesn't want Zubb lynched until D3, so he spends D2 making the most of a golden gift basket in the form of Jack's stubbornness, distracting the town enough to push a condude case through (which, admittedly, partly my fault, since I thought condude was scum). Once D3 rolls around, it's to their advantage for Zubb to be lynched--like ZZ said yesterday, I'm basically a mechanical lynch after Zubb flipped scum. So all ZZ has to do is convert Jack, sit back, and watch me get mislynched. He spends D2 and 3 buddying me, because he knows that even if I figure it out D4, it'll be too late, whereas if I'd put the pieces together instead of being blinded by Jack D3, I might have been able to build enough momentum, when people were actually paying attention to the game still and not on auto-pilot.

Why does ZZ want his partner lynched on Day Three? If Zip had decided too he could easily have arranged a tie yesterday in which case it could be game over already. And if it goes wrong then you're still the candidate who dies today. It's a win-win for Zip. Moreover, as Telleo says, Zip turned me from nanook to Zubb, why does he do that as Zubb's partner? The pieces just don't quite fit with ZZ as Mafia. They do with you as Mafia.
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby sjg11 » 13 May 2017, 14:27

nanooktheeskimo wrote:
Telleo wrote:Ok Nanook. So why does ZZ suggest to Sjg that we lynch Zubb over you, given that he knows that Zubb is his teammate? Why doesn't he just let himself be convinced, let you die, then say "Oh look, Nanook was town, guess Sjg's full of shit, let's lynch him." That seems like a fairly strong behavioral indicator that he's not the scum with Zubb, right?

Oh wow, nice of you to actually make an appearance.

I think it makes some sense in terms of trying to establish credibility. Especially as it came pre-Jack policy lynch, it could've been a way of taking an easy pro-town looking position, before using the Jack policy lynch stuff to draw the town's attention away from the case and make a pivot back towards condude easier. Although I will admit, it doesn't entirely make sense to me--partly why I'm letting some doubts about SJG to creep in, because ZZ's the person that makes the most sense to me as the redirector mechanically...but there are a few things about his game that I look at, and it makes me think he's town. So I guess I don't really have an answer for you--we'll have to wait for him to enlighten us in the AAR, I suppose.

But if it comes down to nanook and Jack then Zip wins on Day Three. So in that situation Zip's already effectively won and doesn't really need to establish further credibility, he just needs to finish the game off. I mean, Zip could have created a nanook/Jack scenario yesterday and CHOSE not to by forcing me and Jack to switch to Zubb.
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby sjg11 » 13 May 2017, 14:29

nanooktheeskimo wrote:The only thing I'm worried about in this case (besides my impending mislynch), is the nagging voice in the back of my head that says maybe SJG did have enough information as a redirector to be able to mimic a tracker. I mean, I haven't thought it's likely to this point, but...maybe, if his redirector ability is of the "Redirect person X to person Y" flavor rather than a deflector style power (I think I'm using that terminology right!)...then if he converted Zubb N1...he could say I lied without worry of repercussions, because even if I had been pure vanilla as I claimed, there's no way of proving that, and if I had any targeting power than I would've had to have visited Zubb thanks to his redirect. It still feels kind of like a reach to me, but...it's possible, and there's a niggling voice in the back of my head that says it might be more likely than ZZ as the OW. I don't know, but without people invested in playing still, I guess we'll find out in the AAR.

Again, this is narrative. What about my behaviour makes you think I'm Mafia?
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He writes a good game,
and runs it the same,
Oh what a perfect GM!

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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby Jack007 » 13 May 2017, 16:52

Nice. Two walkers "discussing" with each other. Good show.

Hey Nanook, he's going to sacrifice you. He lets you die, mercilessly. Oh wait I forgot, zombies have no feelings, so you can't expect mercy.

;)
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Re: Walking Dead Mafia Game Thread D4

Postby Telleo » 13 May 2017, 22:48

I hear what you're saying, Nanook... it just doesn't make sense. If he was the OG walker, Zip coulda won last night if he'd let you die before Zubb. Especially since, if he's the OG, you're our only blocker to stop the conversion - he'd much rather lynch you than his teammate, right?
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