Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby justy » 23 Apr 2017, 20:43

SF wrote:For any reason other than the lack of a night kill?
What I'm saying is that that is the rationally correct play for Conq as well. It's not a matter of probabilities - either it is the right play or it isn't.


I think you and I are the only ones who no kill is better play than lynch. Conq was after you and I was after Conq or you. Lynching me would have been good choice for scum Conq because if someone would side with you against him, it would be me. You're saying that Smith might have voted Conq instead of you. I think Smith was quite clear about his town read on Conq being stronger than his town read on you.

Plus, as I'm town cleared, I don't really see scum Conq thinking that the odds of him being lynched being smaller if I'm alive.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 23 Apr 2017, 21:38

justy wrote:
SF wrote:For any reason other than the lack of a night kill?
What I'm saying is that that is the rationally correct play for Conq as well. It's not a matter of probabilities - either it is the right play or it isn't.


I think you and I are the only ones who no kill is better play than lynch. Conq was after you and I was after Conq or you. Lynching me would have been good choice for scum Conq because if someone would side with you against him, it would be me. You're saying that Smith might have voted Conq instead of you. I think Smith was quite clear about his town read on Conq being stronger than his town read on you.

But he wasn't. You're telling me that scumConq sees this going into the night:
mhsmith0 wrote:If I had to guess I'd say SF but I'm super non-confident on it. Kinda wish I'd had better insight this game but obviously sometimes I just don't have it *shrugs*

and thinks that he's totally safe from smith? Given that smith said he was 'super non-confident', I think we can say that 'smith might have voted conq instead of me', yes.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby justy » 23 Apr 2017, 22:08

shadowfriend1 wrote:
justy wrote:
SF wrote:For any reason other than the lack of a night kill?
What I'm saying is that that is the rationally correct play for Conq as well. It's not a matter of probabilities - either it is the right play or it isn't.


I think you and I are the only ones who no kill is better play than lynch. Conq was after you and I was after Conq or you. Lynching me would have been good choice for scum Conq because if someone would side with you against him, it would be me. You're saying that Smith might have voted Conq instead of you. I think Smith was quite clear about his town read on Conq being stronger than his town read on you.

But he wasn't. You're telling me that scumConq sees this going into the night:
mhsmith0 wrote:If I had to guess I'd say SF but I'm super non-confident on it. Kinda wish I'd had better insight this game but obviously sometimes I just don't have it *shrugs*

and thinks that he's totally safe from smith? Given that smith said he was 'super non-confident', I think we can say that 'smith might have voted conq instead of me', yes.


Me getting NKd doesn't make odds any worse for Conq unless he believes someone is willing to lynch me. And I had been more willing to vote him than Smith.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby mhsmith0 » 23 Apr 2017, 22:53

shadowfriend1 wrote:...
Seriously? Are you kidding? I have a strong well-developed townread on Justy because he's a mechanically cleared townie. Duh.
What Justy was posting there was so far below the kind of discussion you are recommending here that it would have been ineffective. Justy was saying that he doesn't even understand why Conq might not have killed. What's the point in me making a case on Conq if Justy isn't even going to consider it?


Make the case and I'll consider it. I don't think it's Conq but I could be wrong. Convince me I'm wrong.

mhsmith0 wrote:Do you think it's likely me? Why or why not?

No. Throughout the game I feel like some of your posts and plays have been obviously town. For example, yesterday why don't you just vote to kill me? Conq wasn't budging, justy was following the majority, so you could have easily lynched me and ended it there. It's basically Conq by POE.


OK so we're down to you and Conq (which is progress of sorts). Why is it Conq and not you?

mhsmith0 wrote:Do you think justy is/should be meaningfully on the table (i.e. PROBABLE as opposed to a handwavy "well I guess it's possible" bit)? Why or why not?

I don't think it's probable that it's Justy. I'm forgetting the specifics of the start of the game, but he was blocked when there was a nightkill so I don't see much room for shenanigans. I think that Justy would be a stupid lynch for the town, if that's what you're asking.


Mainly I was asking about your headspace. I'd agree that it's unlikely to be justy, though I'm not sure that there's much more than (unlikely but not impossible to be wrong) mechanics clearing him (though I admit I suck at reading him so *shrugs* )

mhsmith0 wrote:Do you think that Conq has ACTUALLY been playing to scum wincon? Why or why not?

Yes. Day 7 he was taking heat. Today he doesn't need to do anything, really, to lynch me. Clearly no-killing has favored him, in addition to preserving a state of MYLO.


No killing has debatably favored either scum!him or scum!you (I suspect it's more natural for scum!you than scum! him though). What about his play in particular points to him, and in particular his day play?

mhsmith0 wrote:Like, you're in a position where, if town, you know that the wagon on you is game-losing for town, and yet other than complaining about being the target, you don't seem at all motivated to DO anything about it.

Like what? Do you want me to dig through 400 posts by Conq and analyze them? People keep doing this and do nothing with the conclusions they draw.


Well the conclusion I drew was that I think he's town, and what I'm doing with it is leaning towards lynching you. Why am I wrong?

mhsmith0 wrote:Conq - seems to be outside what I understand of his wolf range, has made a number of pretty good posts all game long

:D What do you understand of Conq's wolf range, exactly? The one time he's been scum here he had total control of the town. You really don't think he could get to this point as scum?


Do I think he could play a quality game as scum? Yes. Do I think that it's especially likely that he would have been playing in the manner that he has been playing if he's scum? Not especially. There are differences between this game and Plague Mafia that I strongly suspect are legitimately alignment indicative. Why am I wrong?

mhsmith0 wrote: I also think that his mindset as scum tends to be more aggressive, to the point where he wouldn't want to no kill just conceptually (though my sample size is 1 - do I misunderstand? Do you think he's more aggressive at night than I remember? You were scum with him, you shared a PT, if I'm wrong about that why do you think so?)

We were just letting a plague diffuse in that game, so we didn't have a night kill. But I don't doubt that he can be patient. Conq's not irrational, and there is no reason to assume that he specifically would make an irrational play just because he wants to night kill.


Actually you guys DID have a night kill, just not a traditional one. My recollection was that you guys simply didn't think of the game-winning "infect yourselves N1 so the plaugue spreads FAST" play, and then once I pointed it out N2 you guys were like "oh yeah lets do that! :D ". The aggressive play as scum was what I'd noted, but I doin't think that Conq didn't push that plan because he wasn't aggressive, I just think he didn't push it because he didn't think of it.

Am I wrong? You were scum with him, you should remember it much better than I.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby Conq » 24 Apr 2017, 16:29

mhsmith0 wrote:Actually you guys DID have a night kill, just not a traditional one. My recollection was that you guys simply didn't think of the game-winning "infect yourselves N1 so the plaugue spreads FAST" play, and then once I pointed it out N2 you guys were like "oh yeah lets do that! :D ". The aggressive play as scum was what I'd noted, but I doin't think that Conq didn't push that plan because he wasn't aggressive, I just think he didn't push it because he didn't think of it.

Am I wrong? You were scum with him, you should remember it much better than I.

Well, I'm just going to respond here to preserve my reputation as the greatest scum player ever in the world. First, we did "think of" the idea that we could infect ourselves in order to spread plague faster. But there was serious risk in that if either or both of us were weak and died quickly of plague. I think that self-infection on N2 was plenty effective, without the risk.

Second, you were town, so don't you dare take credit for assisting that beautiful scum victory, except to the extent that you executed a perfect flail around in the dark!

Third, Shadow was a substitute in that game, so she actually was not there for the genesis of the infection strategies. (and I don't mean to take anything away from Shadow -- she was a fantastic partner and a godsend, but I'm just saying that she doesn't have as much context on me as scum as you might think because she joined that game later on).

Fourth, I think I am aggressive as scum in the sense that I am not hesitant to post or fake claim, or be in the spotlight. I'm kind of a spotlight junkie. In terms of night kills, I think I certainly could hold back a night kill if I thought it improved my odds. I'm pretty patient and stubborn. I have won a diplomacy game in the year 1950.

I just think it's fairly clear that I would not have held back a night kill here. While Shadow emphasizes Smith's last post before that first night phase began, I think it's pretty clear from the full context that I had a great chance to win by killing justy. And I don't think that killing justy would have incriminated me much because (1) justy was really moving back and forth between reading me as scum and reading Shadow as scum, and (2) justy was basically clear and expected to be killed.

But I think the best indicator of my "townness" here is my push to avoid the lynches of Joe and Telleo/substitute. While those pushes did not succeed, and the Joe push may have been too late, I actually tried hard in both cases to save those folks. The fact that neither push succeeded should not change how one looks at that. I actually felt, towards the second half of this game, that I had a pretty good ability to whip votes. And so when I came on late and was trying to get people to move votes off Joe, in my head I actually thought it was going to happen. If I were scum there, I know I wouldn't have done that. Because if I locked in town reads on people who were going to survive for too long, I would have backed myself into a corner. There wasn't much margin for error at that point for the final mafioso.

Shadow has been much less committal down the stretch. Her reads have been less firm, and she has been more reactive than proactive. This isn't the main reason that I have read her as scum since my "Eureka" post several phases ago, but it all fits the profile.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby mhsmith0 » 24 Apr 2017, 17:37

@shadow: It's crunch time, 1.5 hours to go. If you have an argument for how it's actually Conq, you need to be making it NOW. Because I think it's just probably you.

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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby mhsmith0 » 24 Apr 2017, 17:42

Conq wrote:...

Fourth, I think I am aggressive as scum in the sense that I am not hesitant to post or fake claim, or be in the spotlight. I'm kind of a spotlight junkie. In terms of night kills, I think I certainly could hold back a night kill if I thought it improved my odds. I'm pretty patient and stubborn. I have won a diplomacy game in the year 1950.


I'd agree with this (I think), but I'd also guess that it's not your standard mindset to WANT to hold back the kill. You strike me as a player who's inherently aggressive, and making a passive decision for little gain goes against my concept of your meta (obviously if you are scum here that concept is wrong but *shrugs*)

Conq wrote:...

I just think it's fairly clear that I would not have held back a night kill here. While Shadow emphasizes Smith's last post before that first night phase began, I think it's pretty clear from the full context that I had a great chance to win by killing justy. And I don't think that killing justy would have incriminated me much because (1) justy was really moving back and forth between reading me as scum and reading Shadow as scum, and (2) justy was basically clear and expected to be killed.


I think it would have been somewhat risky, but at the same time, not killing him was also risky in that it gave town more time (usually more protown than not, even if in this game things sunk towards apathy) and potentially pushed the outcome towards a declared draw instead of an outright win (and I don't get the sense at all that you're a "play for the draw" guy)
Conq wrote:...

But I think the best indicator of my "townness" here is my push to avoid the lynches of Joe and Telleo/substitute. While those pushes did not succeed, and the Joe push may have been too late, I actually tried hard in both cases to save those folks. The fact that neither push succeeded should not change how one looks at that. I actually felt, towards the second half of this game, that I had a pretty good ability to whip votes. And so when I came on late and was trying to get people to move votes off Joe, in my head I actually thought it was going to happen. If I were scum there, I know I wouldn't have done that. Because if I locked in town reads on people who were going to survive for too long, I would have backed myself into a corner. There wasn't much margin for error at that point for the final mafioso.


FWIW at the time I was actually suspecting that you were trying to strongarm suboptimal lynches, and was tinfoiling a bit on you. I do, however, believe that you were actually trying to save them and it wasn't just an act, and I'd tend to agree that this is at least somewhat AI for you.
Conq wrote:...
Shadow has been much less committal down the stretch. Her reads have been less firm, and she has been more reactive than proactive. This isn't the main reason that I have read her as scum since my "Eureka" post several phases ago, but it all fits the profile.

I tend to agree with this too. I'd also note that IIRC her participation seems to have pretty drastically dropped off after it was down to one scum, which could reasonably fall into the concept of her putting herself into a "townie" mindset and scumhunting without worrying about being correct early game, and then not being able to keep it up later game when there are no more actual scum to hunt.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 24 Apr 2017, 17:45

Conq wrote:But I think the best indicator of my "townness" here is my push to avoid the lynches of Joe and Telleo/substitute. While those pushes did not succeed, and the Joe push may have been too late, I actually tried hard in both cases to save those folks. The fact that neither push succeeded should not change how one looks at that. I actually felt, towards the second half of this game, that I had a pretty good ability to whip votes. And so when I came on late and was trying to get people to move votes off Joe, in my head I actually thought it was going to happen. If I were scum there, I know I wouldn't have done that. Because if I locked in town reads on people who were going to survive for too long, I would have backed myself into a corner. There wasn't much margin for error at that point for the final mafioso.

You don't think you could have changed your townreads... because that's what you did with me. Also, keeping sketchy people who are almost getting lynched alive is the best thing for the scum, because then they have players who would be easier to mislynch around at LYLO or MYLO. I would argue those who are almost getting lynched are the ones you would want to keep around.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 24 Apr 2017, 17:51

mhsmith0 wrote:Do I think he could play a quality game as scum? Yes. Do I think that it's especially likely that he would have been playing in the manner that he has been playing if he's scum? Not especially. There are differences between this game and Plague Mafia that I strongly suspect are legitimately alignment indicative. Why am I wrong?

Like what? Let's face it, no one suspected Conq in Plague. It's why when you tell me to read through his posts and make a case on Conq I know it's extremely unlikely that he would leave seeds in thread to incriminate himself.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 24 Apr 2017, 17:53

mhsmith0 wrote:Mainly I was asking about your headspace. I'd agree that it's unlikely to be justy, though I'm not sure that there's much more than (unlikely but not impossible to be wrong) mechanics clearing him (though I admit I suck at reading him so *shrugs* )

I couldn't agree more. I would have been all over Justy for his vote on Conq EOD7 if he weren't clear. But I just think lynching someone who is mechanically cleared at MYLO is a bit ridiculous.
mhsmith0 wrote:
Well the conclusion I drew was that I think he's town, and what I'm doing with it is leaning towards lynching you. Why am I wrong?

The conclusion Justy drew when he read through my posts was that I looked townie. And it didn't change a thing.
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