Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby Conq » 22 Apr 2017, 22:12

shadowfriend1 wrote:
Conq wrote:I know that Smith has townread me. It may not be right before the first kill. But he has certainly done it.

Please provide this townread when you have the time. I see nowhere where smith has had a strong town read on you - like, the kind of townread you would be so confident in that you would hang the game on it enduring. This is the kind of standard you would have had to meet for this to be rational.
Then, consider: what good does it do you to night kill? It just flat out weakens your position as scum.
And what, you would suddenly do your nightkill right as smith comes out with a townread on you? That wouldn't be sketchy at all.


I'd like everyone to read this post by Shadow where she argues that my suggestion that "Smith has townread me" is not correct. She suggests here that she actually went back and read Smith's posts, and came away thinking that I was wrong in saying that Smith didn't townread me.

Now go read Smith's posts on the day of the first non-lynch. I mean...you just have to read them. It's such a ridiculous thing for Shadow to say.

Smith said, for example:

"FWIW I'm basically gonna go ahead and just about hard-clear Conq."


"Yeah I'm not lynching this."


"Also the sheer WIM (Want It More) of his last few days, if that's scum effort, is just really impressive ot me (though I really don't think it is)."


There is like, a tiny bit more context to these quotes, a bit of hedging, where you could argue there is wiggle room, but not much. I mean it seems to me to be near 100% certainty that in a world where I am scum, I would have killed justy (as most people expected would happen anyway) and lynch Shadow with Smith for the win.

I'll post some more context in the next post. I can't see how Shadow actually believes that I could be scum now. And I think the reason she is not trying to push on me is because she sees clearly that I'm not moving off her. She's probably right about that.

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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby Conq » 22 Apr 2017, 22:15

Here is some more context in case people want it. But the best way to get full context is for people to go back and read the day when we decided to No Lynch. Read Smith's comments specifically. I'm sure you will see there that Scum Conq had an easy win if he did what most people expected would happen -- kill justy.

That didn't happen. Scum has refused to kill for several days, piling on Shame Cake layer after Shame Cake layer. There is one person who has had an incentive to do that.

mhsmith0 wrote:FWIW I'm basically gonna go ahead and just about hard-clear Conq. His railing against the poor game state is much different than anything I saw in plague mafia
search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=52774&author=Conq&ch=-1

there, to the extent he was doing things that showed emotion, it was for a specific purpose

viewtopic.php?f=314&t=52774&p=868109#p868109
responding to crunkus
being a particular example

even when things were going poorly, where SF was getting wagoned, there was a dryer tone there
viewtopic.php?f=314&t=52774&p=869223#p869223
viewtopic.php?f=314&t=52774&p=869222#p869222
etc

also his response to K's trust tell
viewtopic.php?f=314&t=52774&p=869111#p869111
a bit of contempt, but largely scrubbed of emotion

Here's he's all like "fuck you assholes for not being around". If that's his wolf range, it's substantially expanded from where it was in that game, and it just seems completely natural here.



mhsmith0 wrote:Also the sheer WIM (Want It More) of his last few days, if that's scum effort, is just really impressive ot me (though I really don't think it is).

Back to day 3...


mhsmith0 wrote:Aggressive and solving are AI. Not 100%, and it can be fakable, but it's a townie mindset more often than not. If he's the last scum in a situation where he essentially can't kill, it's fairly difficult to have town reads that he can't get away with pushing, since it narrows his options (though I would agree w your point that the shadow read was something that he could easily walk back from later if he was scum since it was a false mechanical clear)
FWIW my next task is to look over the subsequent mislynches and Conq's resistance to them and see if they seem like genuine reads or him trying to lay future groundwork. My thought is they were relatively genuine but obv need to verify that.



mhsmith0 wrote:
Conq wrote:You think that ZZ scum read all three scum in his first reads post.

You think that all of my efforts to find town reads was just me acting a part despite the fact that it would have put me in a bad corner had I actually convinced anyone, which I tried hard to do.

You think that ZZ swapped the Assassin from Town Shadow to Town Joe to protect Condude and not to protect ZZ, even though Joe said specifically that he thought it would make sense to lynch Dodgy and take a Vig Shot on Condude.

@Justy -- I'm giving you reasons. The very least we can expect from you, if you are town, is to state your own reasons.


Yeah I'm not lynching this. Not without an actually convincing case (and "but Conq is good" doens't qualify).
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby Conq » 22 Apr 2017, 22:18

To get full context on all this, go back and read the main thread starting at page 229.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby justy » 22 Apr 2017, 22:54

I still think Shadow is most likely the last scum. I don't understand why scum Conq or Smith would have dragged this game on and on for so long.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 22 Apr 2017, 23:42

Conq wrote:I'd like everyone to read this post by Shadow where she argues that my suggestion that "Smith has townread me" is not correct. She suggests here that she actually went back and read Smith's posts, and came away thinking that I was wrong in saying that Smith didn't townread me.

Now go read Smith's posts on the day of the first non-lynch. I mean...you just have to read them. It's such a ridiculous thing for Shadow to say.

But these posts are all from substantially before we entered EOD (April 4th). Going into the night, which is the read you would have been working with at that point, smith was nowhere near certain. This is his last post on the topic (April 6th), and it's thus the substantially best indicator of what his mindset in the future will be:

mhsmith0 wrote:If I had to guess I'd say SF but I'm super non-confident on it. Kinda wish I'd had better insight this game but obviously sometimes I just don't have it *shrugs*

The only thing that matters to scumConq that night is where smith is at AT THAT TIME.

Like, I could come up with a great case now for how townie I am based on what your read of me was earlier in the game. That doesn't mean a thing about the likelihood of you townreading me in the future, especially when you've now clearly indicated that you no longer town read me. If I'm scum, I'm not going to assume at this point in the game that still applies. That would be ridiculous. It would be the same thing as you assuming smith still has a solid townread on you when he JUST stated otherwise.
You really don't see this Conq?
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 22 Apr 2017, 23:44

justy wrote:I still think Shadow is most likely the last scum. I don't understand why scum Conq or Smith would have dragged this game on and on for so long.

Justy, did you read my post here where I explain how that is possible: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby mhsmith0 » 23 Apr 2017, 02:13

shadowfriend1 wrote:
justy wrote:I still think Shadow is most likely the last scum. I don't understand why scum Conq or Smith would have dragged this game on and on for so long.

Justy, did you read my post here where I explain how that is possible: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584


ok so if you're town, you're well past the point where "possible" is useful at all. What is LIKELY? Who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town? Like in
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584#p899389
you go
Let's solve this. I'm in essay writing mode and there's a freaking scum out there.


and then proceed to say precisely nothing that is actually useful for finding who the last scum is (some shade towards Conq, but nothing that is substantially indicative - for that matter, nothing that shows that you have a strong or well-developed townread of me or Justy and it's just him by POE either).

Do you think it's likely me? Why or why not?
Do you think justy is/should be meaningfully on the table (i.e. PROBABLE as opposed to a handwavy "well I guess it's possible" bit)? Why or why not?
Do you think that Conq has ACTUALLY been playing to scum wincon? Why or why not?

Like, you're in a position where, if town, you know that the wagon on you is game-losing for town, and yet other than complaining about being the target, you don't seem at all motivated to DO anything about it.

You think that no killing is non-indicative? I tend to disagree, but ok then: what IS indicative? I don't care at all about your complaining about us potentially blowing the game; if we blow it, then we blow it. Find a better read than you, convince us that said read is good.

I personally think that your work is cut out for you given:
Justy - seeming mech clear (barring obnoxious setup shenanigans), also he EASILY had the option of just not showing up at last EOD and letting you rand 50% game over, and then giving some excuse about non availability if he lost the rand
Conq - seems to be outside what I understand of his wolf range, has made a number of pretty good posts all game long - I also think that his mindset as scum tends to be more aggressive, to the point where he wouldn't want to no kill just conceptually (though my sample size is 1 - do I misunderstand? Do you think he's more aggressive at night than I remember? You were scum with him, you shared a PT, if I'm wrong about that why do you think so?)
Me - out of everyone on the board, I had the MOST incentive to just shoot justy and watch you or Conq tunnel each other for the easy win (the very very very obvious move for scum!me, especially since I could sell it as a you or Conq move reasonably enough). I also feel like I've been generally villagery during the game, but if you disagree, then do the work on casing me and convince me that you have sincerity behind it (obviously you're wrong, but then again scum!me would say that so *shrugs*)
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby justy » 23 Apr 2017, 14:38

shadowfriend1 wrote:
justy wrote:I still think Shadow is most likely the last scum. I don't understand why scum Conq or Smith would have dragged this game on and on for so long.

Justy, did you read my post here where I explain how that is possible: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584


I did and I agree it's possible. But I think it's more likelier for scum SF to abstain from NK than it's for scum Conq/Smith. I'm voting you because I think youre most likely the remaining scum, not because you must be the remaining scum.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 23 Apr 2017, 18:26

justy wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:
justy wrote:I still think Shadow is most likely the last scum. I don't understand why scum Conq or Smith would have dragged this game on and on for so long.

Justy, did you read my post here where I explain how that is possible: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584


I did and I agree it's possible. But I think it's more likelier for scum SF to abstain from NK than it's for scum Conq/Smith. I'm voting you because I think youre most likely the remaining scum, not because you must be the remaining scum.

For any reason other than the lack of a night kill?
What I'm saying is that that is the rationally correct play for Conq as well. It's not a matter of probabilities - either it is the right play or it isn't.
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Re: Fable Mafia 9- Halloween- Day Twelve

Postby shadowface » 23 Apr 2017, 18:41

mhsmith0 wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:
justy wrote:I still think Shadow is most likely the last scum. I don't understand why scum Conq or Smith would have dragged this game on and on for so long.

Justy, did you read my post here where I explain how that is possible: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584


ok so if you're town, you're well past the point where "possible" is useful at all. What is LIKELY? Who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town? Like in
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54894&start=2584#p899389
you go
Let's solve this. I'm in essay writing mode and there's a freaking scum out there.


and then proceed to say precisely nothing that is actually useful for finding who the last scum is (some shade towards Conq, but nothing that is substantially indicative - for that matter, nothing that shows that you have a strong or well-developed townread of me or Justy and it's just him by POE either).

Seriously? Are you kidding? I have a strong well-developed townread on Justy because he's a mechanically cleared townie. Duh.
What Justy was posting there was so far below the kind of discussion you are recommending here that it would have been ineffective. Justy was saying that he doesn't even understand why Conq might not have killed. What's the point in me making a case on Conq if Justy isn't even going to consider it?

mhsmith0 wrote:Do you think it's likely me? Why or why not?

No. Throughout the game I feel like some of your posts and plays have been obviously town. For example, yesterday why don't you just vote to kill me? Conq wasn't budging, justy was following the majority, so you could have easily lynched me and ended it there. It's basically Conq by POE.

mhsmith0 wrote:Do you think justy is/should be meaningfully on the table (i.e. PROBABLE as opposed to a handwavy "well I guess it's possible" bit)? Why or why not?

I don't think it's probable that it's Justy. I'm forgetting the specifics of the start of the game, but he was blocked when there was a nightkill so I don't see much room for shenanigans. I think that Justy would be a stupid lynch for the town, if that's what you're asking.
mhsmith0 wrote:Do you think that Conq has ACTUALLY been playing to scum wincon? Why or why not?

Yes. Day 7 he was taking heat. Today he doesn't need to do anything, really, to lynch me. Clearly no-killing has favored him, in addition to preserving a state of MYLO.

mhsmith0 wrote:Like, you're in a position where, if town, you know that the wagon on you is game-losing for town, and yet other than complaining about being the target, you don't seem at all motivated to DO anything about it.

Like what? Do you want me to dig through 400 posts by Conq and analyze them? People keep doing this and do nothing with the conclusions they draw.

mhsmith0 wrote:Conq - seems to be outside what I understand of his wolf range, has made a number of pretty good posts all game long

:D What do you understand of Conq's wolf range, exactly? The one time he's been scum here he had total control of the town. You really don't think he could get to this point as scum?

mhsmith0 wrote: I also think that his mindset as scum tends to be more aggressive, to the point where he wouldn't want to no kill just conceptually (though my sample size is 1 - do I misunderstand? Do you think he's more aggressive at night than I remember? You were scum with him, you shared a PT, if I'm wrong about that why do you think so?)

We were just letting a plague diffuse in that game, so we didn't have a night kill. But I don't doubt that he can be patient. Conq's not irrational, and there is no reason to assume that he specifically would make an irrational play just because he wants to night kill.
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