Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Game Over - Mafia Victory!

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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Jordan767 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:13

mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:
Jordan767 wrote:I have 2 alternatives to Telleo's plan (which I haven't evaluated fully yet...)

1. we all pair up and go one way one night and the other way the next night. Should keep anyone from dying in one night and puts them at net 0 for 2 nights. Also might end up vigging any scum who go off reservation if we have high numbered players.

2. we don't plan visits beforehand so scum can't fuck with us unless they both act together.

Thoughts?


So if I understand 1 correctly, we pair up, say You and Me, Keir and Crunk, HM and MH, etc? The rules state that you cannot target the same player on consecutive nights. That prevents us from negating our first push with a followup pull. That's why we should use my plan, in which we CAN negate those effects.

I'm not a fan of #2. Gives the scum all the power to fuck with us, since there's no accountability for anyone's night actions. They don't know anyone's push/pull value, but that's not a huge hindrance to them, is it? Especially if they have relatively high values themselves?


Reread the rules, last line of page 4. Scum know everyone's power values already.

Like I said, derp clear or fake derp clear. The first potentially indicative moment of the game. I want everyone to weigh in on whether they think that faking this is within Telleo's wolf range; if not, then we have our first solid town read and it's only page 3

In related news, smith GOAT 8-)
Everyone else needs to catch up

It's really weird because we already went over how scum know that already and Telleo seemed to understand it then...

Not sure how I feel about this.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Jordan767 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:15

Telleo wrote:
Jordan767 wrote:But over multiple (2-3 probably) nights players near a dead player will eventually die unless the dead player and the people next to them are all very similar numbers. Which could happen but shouldn't be relied on.



Hmmm. You're right. I'll need to recalculate, but I don't know yet if this is a fatal flaw. Gimme a minute or ten.

Probably not fatal. But something to consider.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:15

Jordan767 wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:...
So to you, the prospect of each player learning their own push/pull value is worth killing at least one additional player, possibly more? Why, exactly?


I like town-controlled kill power. To me that's an inhererent ADVANTAGE, so while this makes you nervous, this makes me excited.

Remember how last game I told sjg he should have shot N1 and kept shooting? Same concept.

But do we necessarily need to know our numbers to be mass murderers? Not necessarily unless we're trying to kill everyone really fast.

The natural reason to want to know your number is so you don't accidentally kill someone. But that's not a concern you have anyway.


Wrong. The main reason to want to know your number as town ASAP is so that you can construct future visitation schemes that make it difficult for scum to finagle additional night kills. The SECOND reason to want to know your number as town ASAP is that you can potentially catch scum in a mechanical lie (likely not until after N2 but possibly I'm missing something).

That said, the PRIMARY advantage is that town gets extra kill power (and I'm fully willing to discuss how many "vig targets" we should have - my current lean is just one). People underestimate how powerful it is to have extra town-controlled kill power in a game.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 07 Jan 2017, 09:19

mhsmith0 wrote:
Jordan767 wrote:Also scary for town if EOD wagons are town/town.

Not sure how your plan tells people their numbers. Also lets scum pick potentially up to 2 kills if they know everyone's action's direction plus its strength.


It's obvious how it tells people their numbers.

If you push on the collective target and your N1 report is "you're at 3 net pull" (or the like), then you're PROBABLY a 3, since you PROBABLY weren't visited by scum (or the dead N1 target) that night. It potentially largely eliminates scum's information edge about the numbers early.

Meanwhile lets say we have:

1. Jordan767
2. Sjg11 (2)
3. dodgy56 (5)
4. Shadowfriend1 (1)
5. Happymeal (3)
6. Telleo (1)
7. Keirador (5)
8. Harb (2)
9. MHsmith0 (4)
10. Crunkus (1)

telleo's "big circle" plan has the fairly obvious vulnerability of scum being able to very easily pick their targets. dodgy and K would in that case be pretty vulnerable to scum actions, so you could potentially see a double kill, depending on who they are, what their scores are and who's slated to act on them.

your "pick your pairs" plan has the same vulnerability PLUS the added danger of scum being able to INFLUENCE the pair selection process, whereas the above example has the benefit of the process being essentially random making vulnerable spots less common and, depending on the rand, MAYBE they don't exist.


My plan DOES have that vulnerability. It ALSO has the advantage of telling us (over a night or two) who's not following the plan. In the above example, let's say Crunkus is scum, and decides to kill Keir. mhsmith probably also dies, because he's at a high number, and Crunkus isn't helping negate it. The following morning, we all go "Hey, why are Keir/mh dead?" and reveal our numbers. Harb and Crunkus, who should have been targeting those two players, get suspicion. Harb says "Well, check out the numbers - I went to 2 last night, and went to 0 tonight. That's mh, Keir, and I, have all effectively negated our earlier orders. Guess it prob's Crunkus." Crunkus likely says the same, and we've got a dipole.

Things get better for us if that occurs on a night where Crunkus's supposed target DOESN'T die, because then said target goes "Hey, my points aren't at 0, someone who was supposed to target me didn't" and we have outed Crunkus as scum.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:19

Jordan767 wrote:...It's really weird because we already went over how scum know that already and Telleo seemed to understand it then...

Not sure how I feel about this.


And now we're thinking about reads instead of mechanics.

Also, where did you think Telleo indicated understanding of that aspect of the mechanics? I'm looking at her ISO (7 posts so far only), and there seemed to be a generally consistent perspective of "scum don't know peoples' numbers" underlying her posts.

that said...

Telleo wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:Oh right also. By revealing our numbers we give the scum a huge advantage, because they can see who is close to death and who isn't. On the other hand, if we follow this (or any plan, really), they'll already be able to figure them out. BUT, we may, over a night or two, be able to figure out a few options for what our own numbers are.

You know what? I'm starting to think this game might involve math. Everyone up to date on their game theory?


Slight possible derp clear for Telleo there unless anyone can vouch for her screwing up rules understanding as a wolf. It'd seem pretty early in the game for her to have gotten advice THAT quickly from a teammate to fake that sort of thing.


Uhhh. That wasn't a rule misunderstanding. That was just something I forgot to put in the OG plan writeup. I knew that was an effect of the plan.


Telleo, what did you mean by this? What exactly did you forget to put in OG plan, and what did you think was an effect of the plan? It's not clear from your language what point you were raising here.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Jordan767 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:20

But if the town misuses that power then we're SOL and we're in LYLO D2. Also planning out visit targets tells scum everything they need to know for getting a double kill.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 07 Jan 2017, 09:21

Telleo wrote:Oh right also. By revealing our numbers we give the scum a huge advantage, because they can see who is close to death and who isn't. On the other hand, if we follow this (or any plan, really), they'll already be able to figure them out. BUT, we may, over a night or two, be able to figure out a few options for what our own numbers are.

You know what? I'm starting to think this game might involve math. Everyone up to date on their game theory?


mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
Slight possible derp clear for Telleo there unless anyone can vouch for her screwing up rules understanding as a wolf. It'd seem pretty early in the game for her to have gotten advice THAT quickly from a teammate to fake that sort of thing.


Uhhh. That wasn't a rule misunderstanding. That was just something I forgot to put in the OG plan writeup. I knew that was an effect of the plan.


The point is, scum already know players power numbers, so by revealing N1 outcomes under a "we already know where everyone is supposed to go" scenario, scum would ALREADY know who's close to death and who isn't. So you're saying that your plan has a key weakness that only makes sense if scum don't know players' numbers, when per the rules scum do in fact know this. So either you intentionally tried to fake derp clear yourself, or you made a REALLY sloppy plan as scum, or you did something that reflects a lack of understanding of the rules, where scum would naturally know everyone's scores, and your "we give the scum a huge advantage" point would'nt be a natural point to raise in the first place, since you'd already know it was false.


Did you read what I wrote? I literally said exactly that in the post. I acknowledge that the scum would be able to figure out our numbers given the plan anyway. That was the point of me bringing it up - I didn't want someone going "Oh but Telleo's plan tells the scum our numbers hurr durr" when obviously any planned targeting tells the scum our numbers.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Jordan767 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:23

The second quote you pulled (not quoting because of 3 quotes rule) is what I was thinking of. Seemed clear to me that she was talking about the same thing we are.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Jordan767 » 07 Jan 2017, 09:25

Telleo-- from the rules:

Team 2 begins with knowledge of every player’s number.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 07 Jan 2017, 09:25

mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:
Jordan767 wrote:I have 2 alternatives to Telleo's plan (which I haven't evaluated fully yet...)

1. we all pair up and go one way one night and the other way the next night. Should keep anyone from dying in one night and puts them at net 0 for 2 nights. Also might end up vigging any scum who go off reservation if we have high numbered players.

2. we don't plan visits beforehand so scum can't fuck with us unless they both act together.

Thoughts?


So if I understand 1 correctly, we pair up, say You and Me, Keir and Crunk, HM and MH, etc? The rules state that you cannot target the same player on consecutive nights. That prevents us from negating our first push with a followup pull. That's why we should use my plan, in which we CAN negate those effects.

I'm not a fan of #2. Gives the scum all the power to fuck with us, since there's no accountability for anyone's night actions. They don't know anyone's push/pull value, but that's not a huge hindrance to them, is it? Especially if they have relatively high values themselves?


Reread the rules, last line of page 4. Scum know everyone's power values already.

Like I said, derp clear or fake derp clear. The first potentially indicative moment of the game. I want everyone to weigh in on whether they think that faking this is within Telleo's wolf range; if not, then we have our first solid town read and it's only page 3

In related news, smith GOAT 8-)
Everyone else needs to catch up


Blah. I hate arguing with people who are trying to call me town.

This time it's a misunderstanding. I know the scum know the numbers we give to people when we push or pull. What I meant there is that they don't know the value we end up at in the morning, since they don't know who targeted whom.

We really need different terms for those two numbers.

From now on, a player's PUSH/PULL VALUE is the number of push or pull points they currently have.

From now on, a player's P/P RATING is the number they assign when they push or pull.
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