Mafia CLVII: Legends of Tomorrow: Town Victory!

[Nanook]

I should have said in my first sentence, PART of his hang up. I don't want to put too many words in sjg's mouth, my fingers might get bitten off

[shadowface]

@shadowfriend: You still aren't dealing with the fundamental issue that if I'm telling the truth about my role being OP as a Mafia-sided role... then my role is OP as a Mafia-sided role SO I'M NOT MAFIA. Holding the position you claim to have held last night MAKES NO SENSE.

I sincerely have no idea what you mean by this. I wish I did.

I'm going out in about 10 minutes, and will not be back before EOD. I already posted my thoughts about each player a few pages back, so there's no need to repost that.

My advice for tomorrow would be to look at the least active players, because this game is allowing them to hide with no consequence. Condude, Joehoya, and mhsmith have all been out of the spotlight, so I think if would be wise to examine them further. As for sjg, he's either in confirmation bias or he's scum.

Regardless, thanks for a fun game everyone.
Good luck

[sjg11]

Alright guys sjg has a cunning plan. And this isn't one of sjg's daft ideas it's one that will actually work. He thinks.

Anyway, I am very sure currently that shadowfriend is Mafia. Like very, very sure. If shadowfriend is not Mafia I will NMR tonight and I recommend that smith DOES NOT activate the Waverider tonight. This guarantees that we get time to re-evaluate tomorrow.

If shadowfriend is Mafia:
Then Zoomzip is town. I'm very confident in this because of the fact their two roles are so similar. What really tips me over the edge is that, if shadowfriend is Mafia, she targeted me last night to block a "powerful town role" during the night. Zoomzip is on record, before all the reveals happened, as believing that my role WAS NOT a powerful town role. This implies that, if shadowfriend is Mafia, ZZ is VERY LIKELY TO BE TOWN.

If shadowfriend and nanook are Mafia then the Mafia must have some pretty powerful roles to deal with the issues caused by a town resurrection and the town's ability to gain two vigilantes which will allow the town to kill three players to the Mafia's one. Yet instead the Mafia have... a Jailer/Blocker (useful) and... someone who sends latte's to people? It makes no sense. Plus nanook's back and forth with SF earlier did not look like two Mafia going at it. If shadowfriend is Mafia, nanook is VERY LIKELY TO BE TOWN.

If shadowfriend and smith are Mafia then the Mafia get a Jailer to block stuff and the Mechanic to ensure that the Waverider roles do not get activated. It could work... if we ignore the fact that a townie is told the Mechanic is in the game and another townie (in this scenario condude and Joe are town) is told that the Waverider needs fixing... then it's only a matter of time before the Waverider gets activated. Leading to the same issues with the nanook and ZZ scenarios where the Mafia lack the power to counter the town's impressive arsenal. Thus I conclude that smith is VERY LIKELY TO BE TOWN.

I'll not comment on myself but I think that I make NO SENSE as shadowfriend's partner if I'm a vig role and ALMOST NO SENSE if I'm not. If I'm not I've already lost according to this plan so yay for me.

Thus if shadowfriend is Mafia then her partner HAS TO BE either Joe or condude. It's the only way for the Mafia to access enough power roles to counter the town's power roles. So tonight this is the plan which we follow:

Smith activates the Waverider
Condude targets asudevil or dodgy
Nanook sends a latte to ZZ
ZZ protects someone
I target Joe
Joe does nothing

The important things here are that smith activates the Waverider and I target Joe.

If nobody gets resurrected (this works with 0 deaths, 1 death and 2 deaths): Either smith was lying about the Waverider or condude was lying about the Resurrections. We have a dipole. We lynch condude, then we lynch smith. Game over, town wins.

If somebody gets resurrected and nobody dies: I'm clearly Mafia lying about my Vig role. I die. Game over. Town wins.

If somebody gets resurrected and only Joe dies and is Mafia: We win. Yay!

If somebody gets resurrected and only Joe dies and is town: Either I used the Mafia NK on Joe and lied about being a Vig or someone lied about the NK. We lynch condude first in case he is Mafia and his resurrectee is too and he can resurrect many times. If he is Mafia, I then shoot the Zombie at night. We win. Yay us! If condude is town then we are at 4 Town to 1 Mafia. I aim for smith. If smith is Mafia we win. If he is town, we lynch me. This way the only way the town loses is if ZZ or nanook are Mafia, a scenario which I view as negligible at this point.

If somebody gets resurrected, two people die and one of them is Joe and he is Mafia: We win. Yay!

If somebody gets resurrected, two people die and one of them is Joe and he is town: I'm telling the truth about being a Vig. We lynch condude. If he's Mafia I shoot the Zombie at night. We win. Yay! If condude turns up town I shoot smith the next night and then we lynch either ZZ/me/nanook at this point based on behaviour. Again, highly unlikely that town ends up losing that scenario.

So yeah... that plan works well I think. If anyone spots a flaw say so. Smith you are the one who REALLY needs to confirm that you will follow this plan before the end of the day.

[sjg11]

Smith I see you down there, you have any issues with activating the Waverider tonight?

[mhsmith0]

So, here's the (probably not shocking) downside. Every night I TRY to fix the Waverider, but I'm only guaranteed to have it fixed on my 3rd attempt. It's also unclear whether my attempts to fix it can be blocked or not. So basically the Waverider should be in good shape night 3, which I think makes sense for either of the claimed Waverider-dependent power roles since it's pretty OP if it's easy (my skepticism about both surviving long enough for it to be useful and for anyone whose abilities were Waverider-dependent to also survive was part of why I preferred the "lynch 3 people on day 1" plan, since I didn't think it was especially likely to actually get to the point where it'd actually be useful). I'm also not sure if my ability can be blocked or not (i.e. maybe I try and fix it, but get blocked and it doesn't work at all).

Anyway, I'm about to go to a couple meetings that should last a combined ~2 hours, but I wanted to pop in with clarification because we should NOT just rely on a "maybe smith fixes the WR night 2 and suddenly it's all sunshine and roses" type scenario.

[Nanook]

I can't see any flaws at a glance, outside of what Smith said. That does seem like information that would have been good to have before now, but I can see why he might have held on to it until necessary.

[mhsmith0]

Also if there are any secret trackers, feel free to track me and see me either go to the WR or do nothing (it's unclear how telleo would report that action). I'd also note that literally no one has CC'd my mechanic ability, which means that I'm either a scum mechanic that is forced to do nothing and fix the WR (resulting in pretty OP town power), or I'm BS'ing fake claim (or telleo likes to make weird fake claims), or I'm just town.

PS I figured I had decent odds of eating an N1 bullet given my mechanic ability, but obviously that didn't happen (lolwolves itt ). I also think that makes it relatively less likely sjg is mafia since I figure he'd have decent odds of shooting me since he's seen me play very well as town at times, and knows my scum game tends to be obvious enough that I'd likely self-clear sooner or later anyway. I suspect the same of condude, but to a lesser extent since he hasn't really seen my scum game much (IIRC just resistance, since I think he checked out of star fox after dying). So my survival with ASU dying instead suggests to me

1) someone who doesn't know me well enough to respect my town game
2) someone who wasn't thinking through the mechanics of the game at all

This was also part of why I was bringing up "who would be killing ASU in a shot that seemed to either implicate or be framing of SF1" earlier in the game day, but apparently that wasn't considered a worthy discussion point for some reason.

I'm STILL curious who here would feel especially threatened by ASU to have shot there N1, so if I die tonight, I'd like kill motive to be a discussion point tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

^I suppose it's also possible that scum had a WR-dependent power and they intentionaly avoided killing me for that reason, but that seems unecessarily tinfoily at this point

[condude1]

Interesting thought exercise Joe. Shadow thinks that sjg has claimed a powerful pro-town role. Does shadowfriend:
1. Block that apparently provable pro-town role so its effects cannot be seen and the player does not become confirmed town.
2. Not do that, let that player clear himself and re-evaluate tomorrow based on what happens next

But you didn't even try to prove your role, because you said it came at such a cost! I mean, you literally didn't do exactly what you're assuming is such an obvious move in 2. You said your role would be great for the mafia and do some crap to the town, and you were my top scumread that day. You never said that that was the defining night phase for you to clear yourself - you didn't even try. It's a pretty obvious decision in my mind that you were a good block target, and I was actually right.

Either you are scum or you are in major confirmation bias here.
sjg11

I dislike this vote tremendously. You're saying he's either scum, or in confirmation bias. You give us no reason to assume the former, rather than the latter though. Are you criticizing him for not shooting someone as vig last night? And somehow that makes him scum? I just don't see what you're getting at here, and it's a massive hedge vote.

BTW, I'm WAY behind, and skimming to catch up. If I understand correctly, there are two semi-dipoles, between myself and Joe, and SF/Nanook. SF's the obvious choice for scum from the second group, and I know I'm town...

[condude1]

Last night I jailed sjg. He was my top scum read, who said he had a role that would be OP in the scum's hands. If he really did have that kind of role, didn't want him using it. That being said, if he was town I thought he would be a likely target for the mafia because of the role he claimed. Thus, blocking while protecting him seemed perfect.

Moreover, this is shadowfriend's explanation of his block on me.

He states that he believes that I had stated that I had a role which is OP in the scum's hands. If the role I had claimed was OP in the scum's hands... then I COULDN'T be Mafia. Because my role would be OP in the scum's hands. Shadowfriend is claiming a fear that I was BOTH telling the truth and was Mafia. This is a fear which IT MAKES NO SENSE for a townie to hold based on the information which shadowfriend was working with at the time.

This is extremely accurate. I think SF's caught scum at this point.