Mafia CLV: Fable 8 Game Thread

[Jordan767]

Keir.

On D1: lurks. As I've stated for the whole game I don't think we can take that as indicative. Addresses some specific points but not all of them. Very cautious and eager to justify what he says. I can buy that if he really had that low of thread awareness, but still.

On D2: selective engagement. He talks to Zoomzip and Harb a lot about D1 and about frustrations with Zoomzip. He keeps all his options open. Distancing himself from the inevitable ZZ lynch. Providing just enough doubt on condude to keep him from being a townread. He asked me a couple of questions then did nothing with my answers. Literally nothing. Hasn't touched me since except to defend me from allegations of being on a team. I wouldn't know near as well without rereading the whole thread (which I don't have enough time for) but I think he did this to others as well. It makes him look like he's engaging with me without actually accomplishing anything. All this just feels a little off.

On D3: starts off weak. UDC has commented on this extensively. Doesn't want to consider justy. Gets death cursed by UDC for his EoD2. Now switches to townreading condude. What happened there? Joins the Chuck lynch which we agree is good for scum. I can't really decide how I feel about how scummy this is but it's definitely not a point in favor of him being town.

On D4: votes me. Why? Justy is doing townie things for 2-1. This seems off because a. Keir says Justy probably would still do townie things at 2-1 even as scum and b. Justy says he doen't know how to play 2-1and has little experience there, so why would he know what to do there as scum? By now he's not talking a whole lot to me or justy. There are outstanding questions to him from both of us. And he seems to be doing the bare minimum to keep his vote on me with no real reanalysis. As if he likes where Justy's vote is today and doesn't feel a need to participate heavily. Also Keir, I know you find it hard to evaluate justy, but it doesn't seem like you've even tried to do so to any real extent and today is lynch or lose. So please try.

Since it seems more likely that justy votes with me than Keir does and if I get lynched the town loses I'm gonna vote Keirador

[Jordan767]

Something for you two to consider.

Playa's post about the condude case was obviously coached, right?

If my play was so atypical of scum yesterday, how would I have coached Playa to make the post he did? Like, how would I have been capable of coaching Playa when my own play looks unlike most scum play? How could his play look more coached and more typical of scum than the person you think coached it?

By voting me you're considering me Playa's scumpartner, yet I don't think that I make sense as Playa's scumpartner.

[Keirador]

So I was on my phone earlier and couldn't do my answer here justice. What I mean is that it seems to me that justy developed the idea that on D3 we should be hunting for a team, and on D4 a lone wolf, before he'd formulated UDC and condude as the most likely team and decided Jordan and Keirador were likely teamless. His reasoning for UDC being the most likely team player does make sense from a townjusty POV, and he seemed to come into it relatively organically. AND THEN the actual lynch of UDC required two different players to both feel like UDC was a bad lynch but the only option for self-preservation. If he faked all of that with the pre-planned intention of eventually securing the mislynch of UDC and leaving us more vulnerable players as the last remaining townies coming into the final day, that's incredibly impressive. The only way this plan works is if he foresees or manipulates matters so that the state of the game would see TWO "self-preservation" votes on UDC. This is possible, but doesn't seem as plausible as his D3 being an organic development.

This isn't necessarily a towntell, scum can develop organically as well, but it makes it so that if justy was intentionally manipulating events to the specific end of a UDC mislynch and Keir and Joran entering the last day, he's something of a mastermind.

That goddamn 3 quotes rule. Fair point.

Although what he could have done is seen a unanimous Keir lynch and moved to lynch a townier UDC based on information he'd already put into thread but was "just now" finding the narrative for. He knew he would have you for self-pres and figured he could pull me and/or condude. And if he fails then he gets towncred going into 2-1 LYLO for being off your townie lynch.

He wouldn't have had to be doing this long ahead of time for it to be a very clever scum play.

Justy

I need to get a vote out here. I'll reread both your ISOs tonight and see what I find.

So the underlined is what I grant is possible but seems implausible to have been planned from the beginning. Going with the flow, perhaps, but putting that information about hunting for teams in thread before UDC looked like a potential lynch arguably endangered justy himself to an even greater degree.

[Keirador]

Keir.

On D1: lurks. As I've stated for the whole game I don't think we can take that as indicative. Addresses some specific points but not all of them. Very cautious and eager to justify what he says. I can buy that if he really had that low of thread awareness, but still.

I didn't feel particularly "cautious," except insofar as I was conscious of not being up-to-date and therefore not feeling particularly brave about slinging around wildly uninformed opinions. But yes, I lurked.

On D2: selective engagement. He talks to Zoomzip and Harb a lot about D1 and about frustrations with Zoomzip. He keeps all his options open. Distancing himself from the inevitable ZZ lynch. Providing just enough doubt on condude to keep him from being a townread. He asked me a couple of questions then did nothing with my answers. Literally nothing. Hasn't touched me since except to defend me from allegations of being on a team. I wouldn't know near as well without rereading the whole thread (which I don't have enough time for) but I think he did this to others as well. It makes him look like he's engaging with me without actually accomplishing anything. All this just feels a little off.

Mostly fair. The defense of you not being on a team happened D3, not D2. On D2 I did try to keep my options open, and I was waffley on the ZZ lynch. The point of my engagement with the condude townread, though, wasn't to attack condude, it was to probe the reasoning of others who were simultaneously representing themselves as believing there were two scum left, and also townread condude based on advancing a plan that a 3-scum team would have known not to fear. Those ideas were contradictory, and I was attempting to get to the bottom of that contradiction. But I'll agree I didn't accomplish much.

On D3: starts off weak. UDC has commented on this extensively. Doesn't want to consider justy. Gets death cursed by UDC for his EoD2. Now switches to townreading condude. What happened there? Joins the Chuck lynch which we agree is good for scum. I can't really decide how I feel about how scummy this is but it's definitely not a point in favor of him being town.

This is a terribly unfair summary of my D3. On D3 I didn't just argue that you didn't make sense as a team, I argued that virtually no team pairing made sense without justy on it, and that UDC in particular was very likely town. The fact that my arguments were ineffective doesn't make them disappear. If I had had my druthers yesterday, the lynch order would have been justy > Jordan and we'd be done with this ordeal.

Nothing happened to the condude townread, it was always conditional based on the number of scum. If there were 3 scum D1, condude's plan is a waste of time that will never catch scum, if there are 2, it's a potentially potent town weapon for which he deserves towncredit.

On D4: votes me. Why? Justy is doing townie things for 2-1. This seems off because a. Keir says Justy probably would still do townie things at 2-1 even as scum and b. Justy says he doen't know how to play 2-1and has little experience there, so why would he know what to do there as scum? By now he's not talking a whole lot to me or justy. There are outstanding questions to him from both of us. And he seems to be doing the bare minimum to keep his vote on me with no real reanalysis. As if he likes where Justy's vote is today and doesn't feel a need to participate heavily. Also Keir, I know you find it hard to evaluate justy, but it doesn't seem like you've even tried to do so to any real extent and today is lynch or lose. So please try.

Not a huge fan of the claim I'm not talking a lot. I was on an airplane for most of today, but other than that I think I've been doing most of the talking. What are these outstanding questions?

[Jordan767]

K, you've hardly touched anything after justy posted his case on me. Including large parts of my case on you, especially the D4 piece of it.

[Jordan767]

Justy, where the hell are you?

[justy]

I'm here. But I don't really have anything to say. I mean, I could vote Keir, I've already done that in this game. But I think that it's more likelier that you are scum than that Keir is, so my vote is on you. Your case on Keir didn't really change that thinking.

I don't know, this day has been perhaps too long for 2-1 situation. It's kind of difficult for me at least to change my mind at this point.

[justy]

End day

I don't think there's much time in the clock anyway, but I'm ready to call this one in. I notice Zip's game has already started as well, I probably should pay attention to that one as well.

I'm still interested in seeing how this went, but I have to say that my mind isn't really into this anymore. It's really difficult to review arguments made by either of you, because I know one of you is scum. So what happened was that I mostly decided my mind at the beginning of this day.

[Jordan767]

justy

Keir, let's not lose this.

[justy]

So you think again that I'm scummier? Or are you tossing coin and hoping for the best?