Mafia CLIV: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia (Town Win)

[Harb]

Jordan, you understood that you were a town stomp target last night, right? Do you see any way that scum other than justy doesn't stomp justy knowing that town is going to stomp you anyway?

[Jordan767]

Jordan, you understood that you were a town stomp target last night, right? Do you see any way that scum other than justy doesn't stomp justy knowing that town is going to stomp you anyway?

I don't quite follow what you're saying here.

[Harb]

Well, on sjg I'm pretty happy with how yesterday ended up, even if the best reason I could come up with for lynching sjg was "I don't actively think he's town."

Zip, you list me as almost clear town. Thoughts on HappyMeal? He's in a position EOD to really throw things into chaos and hammers SJG instead. As scum, HappyMeal even has a long built up position regarding sjg's townieness he can fall back on. I think HappyMeal is pretty solidly town. Particularly if we accept justy as town. Referring back to sjg's D1 roster run (D1 sjg feels pretty safe. I think he's looking for foundations for his future positions, not thinking about it being examined on his death), he thinks justy is scum if HappyMeal is town. I think sjg saw HappyMeal as a likely mislynch and was building foundation for a future attack on justy.

I'm still slightly suspicious of SF. sjg calls her a him in his RR, and I know that sjg knows she's a gal. Could be trying to distance himself through a "This is how little I know about her" sort of thing. That's tea leaves though and mostly just something I'm saying cause I noticed it and would like to shame sjg for his silly mistake in case it was an honest one.

There is no reason for the mafia to set up a mislynch on small/med townies - really anyone else, but not small/med townies. Small/med townies are the only ones who a large scum can nightkill. Why wouldn't the large mafia you assume just kill you and Justy at night, starting now? It would set up lynches on the large players, which he's going to have to get anyways to win. It makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to pull this scheme, because the very players it would let them kill are the ones they must forgo a guaranteed kill to win.

If the mafia are large, getting the town to mislynch the small guys helps generate suspicion. It focuses discussion other places. It gives them more time to work and find a path to victory. You say killing justy/Jordan sets up lynches on the large players which the scum needs to win, but the scum is ONE of those. They don't necessarily want to speed that process. I get what you're saying, but I don't think it's as absolute as you believe.


Oh, additionally I'd appreciate it if Jordan was allowed to answer my question before other folks chimed in surrounding it.

[Harb]

Jordan, you understood that you were a town stomp target last night, right? Do you see any way that scum other than justy doesn't stomp justy knowing that town is going to stomp you anyway?

I don't quite follow what you're saying here.

1. You knew you were a town stomp target last night, correct?
2. If you knew you were a town stomp target, mafia probably knew it too. If the last mafioso is Large, why don't they kill justy and trust the town to kill you, getting a twofer on the night?

[Harb]

I mean, yes, I'm town. How do you figure Jordan as sub optimal lynch? So sure that scum v scum wasn't in the cards?

+1. Not sure of the mechanics that indicate Jordan is suboptimal. Looking forward to clarification Chuck.

[shadowface]

If the mafia are large, getting the town to mislynch the small guys helps generate suspicion. It focuses discussion other places. It gives them more time to work and find a path to victory. You say killing justy/Jordan sets up lynches on the large players which the scum needs to win, but the scum is ONE of those. They don't necessarily want to speed that process. I get what you're saying, but I don't think it's as absolute as you believe.

Okay, but we were just going to be having that discussion about larges the next day anyway. I think it's pretty sure that the smalls are going to die, and the fewer days we have to talk the fewer days the mafia have to incriminate themselves.
Also, the 'suspicion' the mafia generate from lynching a small would really probably end up on the mafia himself, because he'd likely have to push the idea to get the lynch on a small (this very discussion shows it's not unanimous). For example, if we lynch Jordan today and he's town, I'm going to look pretty bad, right? That's the situation this large mafia would end up in. It doesn't make any sense that they would do that to themself if they didn't have to. Which they don't - they can accomplish the same thing by just stomping.

[Zoomzip]

Goddamn, had a really good post just get eaten. Ah well.

Harb: HM could have bounced out on SJG, but I'm not sure I quite have him as town as you. With Jordan coming in on self-defense, I think momentum was clearly to take out SJG.

All: Check out the late movement on the vote. What does it suggest to you? On 7 Nov, there were no votes between 0606GMT and 1556GMT -- and those votes are really interesting to look at. Look at them, and combine it with the situation in thread, and tell me if you see what I see. And I'm not telling you what I see. Or rather, I kinda have, but take a look at it. How the SJG lynch came together I think tells us a lot.


Also, the lynch of SJG was not on mechanics, it was on behavior (Driven by mechanics, to some degree). I think the mafia severely did not anticipate the size landscape well, and made some odd decisions.

To vote Jordan, you must believe two things: Scum v. Scum D2, and Double non-Large claims D1. Do you? SF has stepped up on this (but there's more evidence that is required to nail this down into a real case).

Re: SJG calling SF1 "him" -- I don't see this as a fake distancing slip. I see this as patriarchy and gendered language. It is disappointing it keeps happening, but SJG, regardless of alignment, can make mistakes like that. However, I would hope we would all work to not erase people's identities Then again, I am a bleeding heart SJW, so of course I would.

[justy]

Jordan

I am (again) surprised to be around and I'm going to re-read Sjg tomorrow. At this moment, I have strong feeling that we actually did nail scum team D2. I can't really understand the lack of night kill in N2 if it's large-small. Harb, you seem to think it's possible that surviving large scum is playing long game and trying to manipulate town into right position before stomping Jordan and I. Who do you think could play such scum game in our current roster?

I think that there's decent case against Jordan besides of his size.
-His reluctance to vote UDC D1 when Sjg was voting UDC.
-Him scum-reading me EoD1 and dropping that case in D2 without a word.
- His vote on UDC after ignoring him for quite long time.

I remember that Jordan's play near EoD2 was reason for some to vote Sjg instead of Jordan. So I'm planning to re-read D2 as well tomorrow.

[Jordan767]

Harb,

I knew I might get stomped by townies last night, yes.

I have no idea why I'm not dead yet. They could be trying to play it slow and make mislynches. They might be small who made a false declaration, hid for the last 2 nights, and therefore couldn't kill me. It could be a large with some crazy scheme I don't even know about.

Question for everyone. If I'm scum, why did I not kill justy last night? I'm his top still-living scumread, it seems like the kind of thing scum!me would do.

[Harb]

Harb,

I knew I might get stomped by townies last night, yes.

I have no idea why I'm not dead yet. They could be trying to play it slow and make mislynches. They might be small who made a false declaration, hid for the last 2 nights, and therefore couldn't kill me. It could be a large with some crazy scheme I don't even know about.

Question for everyone. If I'm scum, why did I not kill justy last night? I'm his top still-living scumread, it seems like the kind of thing scum!me would do.

This is the admission I was looking for. Jordan is saying he knew he was a town stomp target. That means the no kill can be explained by Jordan feeling like he needed to hide.

I think a large no killing is a pretty unlikely scenario. I think Jordan has pretty implicitly accepted that justy is town in a situation where he should be pretty skeptical of justy since justy-scum explains the no kill a LOT better than anything else really. Especially as someone previously suspicious of justy. It sure looks a lot like Jordan knows justy is town right now.

jordan767