Mafia CLIV: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia (Town Win)

[Jordan767]

Literally everyone else sees a town justy. I'm not sure I do, but I think I'll trust the town's collective read over my own. Namely, I feel like a lot of people are making meta-based arguments related to his mechanics discussion, which I have little to no experience with. Scum justy is in fact a potential explanation for the no-kill but everyone around me thinks it's very unlikely.

[Harb]

But you have different information from everyone around you. If we knew for a fact that you were town, we'd probably end up doing some reconsidering on justy.

You say scum justy is a potential explanation. Is that explanation more or less likely than large scum? Why? Is it something layouts considered already?

[UpsideDownChuck]

Harb,

I knew I might get stomped by townies last night, yes.

I have no idea why I'm not dead yet. They could be trying to play it slow and make mislynches. They might be small who made a false declaration, hid for the last 2 nights, and therefore couldn't kill me. It could be a large with some crazy scheme I don't even know about.

Question for everyone. If I'm scum, why did I not kill justy last night? I'm his top still-living scumread, it seems like the kind of thing scum!me would do.

This is the admission I was looking for. Jordan is saying he knew he was a town stomp target. That means the no kill can be explained by Jordan feeling like he needed to hide.

I think a large no killing is a pretty unlikely scenario. I think Jordan has pretty implicitly accepted that justy is town in a situation where he should be pretty skeptical of justy since justy-scum explains the no kill a LOT better than anything else really. Especially as someone previously suspicious of justy. It sure looks a lot like Jordan knows justy is town right now.

jordan767

This potentially makes sense too.

My thinking earlier was something along the lines of, "if a small or medium is mafia then the games basically over already, so we should focus on the worlds where we can still lose, i.e. Large mafia". I also thought if one of Justy or Jordan was mafia that desperation would manifest itself in a way that would be hard to conceal. Maybe this is it?

I'm now thinking mechanically it might make more sense to lynch Jordan (and in doing so condemn Justy) and then either win then or move forward knowing that hey we're town and having that inform our large lynches. In a sense large mislynched atenourbcurrency at this point sonit make sense to hold off spending G them until we've eliminated the possibilities of scum Justy or scum jordan

[Jordan767]

I'm not about to vote for my own mislynch.

UpsideDownChuck for being unwilling to follow already-in-motion town plans and not justifying reads well.

[Jordan767]

Incidentally, what's the ETA on your new keyboard?

[justy]

Re-reading Sjg. It seems like there was minimal interaction between Jordan and Sjg in D1 and D2, even thought in D1 they were interested in same players (namely UDC and DJ).

At the beginning D2, Sjg votes me and says that no night kill is best explained if there's small mafia. No mention of Jordan.

When he talks about the different size combinations (i.e. when he tries to put large-large back on the table), he doesn't discuss possibility of Justy-Jordan apart from mentioning that medium-small is possible combo. He does discuss Jordan and thinks that medium-large wouldn't miss NK. Meaning, he triest to keep Jordan lynch off the table.

However, I don't know how strong evidence Sjg ignoring Jordan D2 is of Sjg/Jordan. Whoever Sjg's partner is, they had some reason not to stomp N1. If the idea was to keep small/medium alive for some purpose, Sjg could ignore Jordan (and I) no matter who his partner was.

Two quotes from Sjg below. Those make me think that his partner isn't small hiding amongst large players. He seems to be genuinely unsure what to think of someone who would be lying about their size.

@SJG11: I'm always happy to have a discussion on vigs in the AAR. Also, just a quick question -- For this game, at this point, right now, are you in a lynch all liars position? .

1. That's nice... I'm not sure why we need to discuss vigs in the AAR, we both seem to agree that holstering as a vig is a good idea. My point was that DJ, as someone who has never played in a game with vigs in it on this site, may not understand these arguments and that this may be useful context for you to consider when assessing him.
2. I'd likely lynch all liars in this game. I'm not going to say I definitely would, these things do always depend on context to an extent. Hence why I'm not saying we should lynch happymeal for example.

Zoomzip, can you place your biggest concerns, why they are your concerns, and how you think the scum would act in those given concerns? Since I went ahead and did that for you, I think it only fair you do it for me.

@everyone

I think it might be optimal if you guys participate in this as well. Please answer the questions if possible.

My current biggest concern is with justy. To put it simply... the no kill fits best in a scenario where one Mafia is small. I'm town so that leaves justy as Mafia unless we have people lying about their size which is unlikely as I think it's a big gamble and I imagine the Mafia will eventually be caught out if they're playing that game anyway.

However, I think that keeping daizy chain intact one more night would be best choice for us, because possibly hiding small should have burned all hides by now.

[UpsideDownChuck]

Incidentally, what's the ETA on your new keyboard?

I figured out I can get the keys to work by tilting the laptop forward towards me. However, I moved at the beginning of this month and don't get internet set-up til Monday at my apartment so I'm confined to typing at Starbucks or phone posting.

Is this a concession? It seems like it may be

[UpsideDownChuck]

sjg's mechanica analysis was very Jordan-centric from what I recall

[UpsideDownChuck]

Jordan767

[UpsideDownChuck]

I think the best reason to no kill as a large mafia would be if you thought one or both of justy/jordan was going to push a mislynch that you'd have trouble getting through with just the larges left. That doesn't seem to be the direction any of the larges have been pushing as of so far, so I'm inclined to say that's not the case.