Mafia CLIV: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia (Town Win)

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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 03:38

Anyways, I extremely doubt that Zoomzip or Justy are the mafia because Zoomzip pretty much voted for sjg and said "well fuck the reason, let's have a fun game" instead of building a case. Which kind of mafia partner does this sort of random vote to build momentum and allows this to continue without attempting to help his partner sometime along the way? Justy is in a similar scenario that if he was mafia, he had no reason to continue the momentum on Sjg (despite starting it) without doing something along the way. The only voters on sjg I would be suspicious of are Harb and Jordan.

I honestly don't have a lot on Harb and don't really suspect him right now. Jordan, on the other hand, voted as a retaliation vote in order to save himself. I mean, it only looks natural that he does such, but his suspicion cast upon UDC throughout the game without committing to a vote that often seems pretty convenient. Especially as justy mentions here:

justy wrote:I hope someone finds a flaw in my reasoning about small-med team. I'd rather not get policy stomped today. But I now believe that Zip and others were right and we should lynch medium or small today. Therefore, Sjg.

Yesterday, I felt that him not realizing that small townies couldn't hide could indicate him being larger. Well, perhaps it was because he was small scum and didn't realize town didn't have same quality.

Even though Jordan stated several times his suspicions over UDC, he never voted him. Perhaps it was because Sjg already had vote on UDC and they didn't want to vote together?

Not great reasons to vote Sjg and my vote is mostly based on my analysis of what would happen if scum are small and medium. Also, if only one of Jordan or Sjg is scum, I'd rather take out the one with more votes and hides.



Anyways, here's my suggestion

I will vote for sf and I will stomp Jordan tonight. That is my plan. I'm willing to look into other cases, but I don't really see, given the night kills being zero, many larges being scum at this point. I'm not certain a Justy policy lynch is required at this point, but I think policy stomping Jordan is pretty much the thing we should do. I was pretty close to stomping him last night, but I stomped Harb instead to adhere to the daisy chain. Anyways, hope to hear from you soon.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 03:42

I meant Justy policy stomp, not lynch.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 03:46

Man, the night is always so lonely :cry:
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 1

Postby UpsideDownChuck » 10 Nov 2016, 04:15

UpsideDownChuck wrote:Also townsjg loves drunknposting


Called it :)

Have/ZZ likely town for not telling sjg that small was a terrible choice. Justy probably town for obvious reasons. Jordan also maybe town and definitely suboptimal lynch today mechanically. Would lynch one of HM/SF today. Will read the thread later and decide who
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby shadowface » 10 Nov 2016, 04:17

At least we got one vote right in the last few days. :|

Happymeal wrote:Anyways, I extremely doubt that Zoomzip or Justy are the mafia because Zoomzip pretty much voted for sjg and said "well fuck the reason, let's have a fun game" instead of building a case. Which kind of mafia partner does this sort of random vote to build momentum and allows this to continue without attempting to help his partner sometime along the way?

While Zoomzip is one of the last players I would lynch today, I wouldn't rule out such blatant busing. I say this because El Conq basically did this to me in Plague, as most easily evidenced if you look through the scumchat from that game here: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/nCwyCJRGsrDfk.

Now that sjg flipped scum, I am quite confident that Jordan is the last scum. I really suspected, and still absolutely do, and sjg-Jordan team. It very much fits with the fact that once again, there was no kill at night. No larges is a highly likely scenario in my opinion, because clearly the mafia chose to go for lynch votes (sjg) over night kills.

Happymeal wrote:I will vote for sf and I will stomp Jordan tonight. That is my plan. I'm willing to look into other cases, but I don't really see, given the night kills being zero, many larges being scum at this point. I'm not certain a Justy policy lynch is required at this point, but I think policy stomping Jordan is pretty much the thing we should do. I was pretty close to stomping him last night, but I stomped Harb instead to adhere to the daisy chain. Anyways, hope to hear from you soon.


Yes, if Jordan doesn't get lynched today I really think we should stomp him. I didn't do so last night because there's absolutely no rush now that there's only one scum left, and I think it would be better to come to a consensus as a town.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Zoomzip » 10 Nov 2016, 04:21

Happy, do you know why SJG got lynched yesterday?

SF, run the cost benefit analysis of the voting yesterday and you should have both Harb and Me as close to clear town. That being said, I like your vote.


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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby shadowface » 10 Nov 2016, 04:23

People, and I see there are some, suspicious of/voting for larges: what makes you think there's a large? If one night of no kills was good enough for us to lynch a small (successfully, at that), why on earth would two nights of no kills be any less significant? I see it as much more so. If the mafia weren't ever planning to kill, they wouldn't have chosen large.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 1

Postby Zoomzip » 10 Nov 2016, 04:37

UpsideDownChuck wrote:
UpsideDownChuck wrote:Also townsjg loves drunknposting


Called it :)

Have/ZZ likely town for not telling sjg that small was a terrible choice. Justy probably town for obvious reasons. Jordan also maybe town and definitely suboptimal lynch today mechanically. Would lynch one of HM/SF today. Will read the thread later and decide who


I mean, yes, I'm town. How do you figure Jordan as sub optimal lynch? So sure that scum v scum wasn't in the cards?
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 04:40

Zoomzip wrote:Happy, do you know why SJG got lynched yesterday?



I can only say why I voted for him, not why others did. I believe some voted based upon mechanical likeliness and others voted on whimsy.

I voted him because he fit two qualifiers for me. He had a behavioral change that was not very characteristic of him on day 1 and he focused on mechanics, specifically ones on large that I would assume a mafia team looking to no kill at night 1 would pursue. Those are my essentials for my end of day vote.

You guys may have voted based on mechanics, whimsy, or whatever. I know a few had a solid case on him, but going through the small pool and then saying "this is the least town out of all three", to me, is a substandard way of playing that I generally don't adopt, unless I can really abuse the mechanics. We were lucky this worked this time around, but Jordan was just as easily a possibility that day that we could have lynched and most likely lost the game afterwards. Had I pursued Jordan at the end there and helped the lynchers bring it home, then my lynch would have been basically certain today. That pretty much gives the mafia a huge chance of winning a game they probably should not have won. I'm not blaming anyone, but that's my honest perspective.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 1

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 04:43

Zoomzip wrote:I mean, yes, I'm town. How do you figure Jordan as sub optimal lynch? So sure that scum v scum wasn't in the cards?


We can just stomp Jordan. I don't get why you're so afraid of stomping people. You've held that position the entire game. The worst we can do is kill a townie, that's basically the same thing with a lynch. To me, a stomp is just an extra lynch when the circumstances align properly. Think of it that way to lose your anxiety.
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