Mafia CLIV: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia (Town Win)

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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Jordan767 » 10 Nov 2016, 04:48

More to say later. For now I just want to throw something out there.

Presumably yesterday's no-kill was ordered so sjg wouldn't arouse suspicion by surviving night 2. I mean, it's not assured, but it seems likely.

But sjg got lynched. So maybe the no-kill tonight was because they liked the game state as it was. Namely, with pressure on me and justy (the other NK candidate) pushing my mislynch rather hard.

That's my best guess.

BTW I stomped Chuck.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 04:48

shadowfriend1 wrote:At least we got one vote right in the last few days. :|

Happymeal wrote:Anyways, I extremely doubt that Zoomzip or Justy are the mafia because Zoomzip pretty much voted for sjg and said "well fuck the reason, let's have a fun game" instead of building a case. Which kind of mafia partner does this sort of random vote to build momentum and allows this to continue without attempting to help his partner sometime along the way?

While Zoomzip is one of the last players I would lynch today, I wouldn't rule out such blatant busing. I say this because El Conq basically did this to me in Plague, as most easily evidenced if you look through the scumchat from that game here: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/nCwyCJRGsrDfk.

Now that sjg flipped scum, I am quite confident that Jordan is the last scum. I really suspected, and still absolutely do, and sjg-Jordan team. It very much fits with the fact that once again, there was no kill at night. No larges is a highly likely scenario in my opinion, because clearly the mafia chose to go for lynch votes (sjg) over night kills.



I'm not certain they would put all their chips in a single bag tbh (referring to your last statement). I still believe a large - small team is the team that makes this play.

About the busing, I don't know the specifics of it, but I would assume it's optimal when you suspect there will be momentum on one of your players, correct? For ex. UDC bused Condude in triple mafia, but that's because I had already had Condude under my lynch watch and was one of the few active townies. In this scenario, there was no prior momentum to sjg at all. i think most considered him one of the towniest members actually, including myself for the first day. I don't see why ZZ would just randomly decide that this is the optimal time to bus sjg. He had great opportunity to shift the blame onto Jordan instead and then stomp justy in the night. After that, then it wouldn't be that hard of a game. He's made it significantly harder on himself this game. I'll be honest, I won't really take an in depth look at him again like I did in day 1 until there are 5 or so players left.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Jordan767 » 10 Nov 2016, 04:53

Oh, also. Mechanical note: lynching me or stomping me kills justy the next night when he has no more non-larges to visit. I mean, if you're really dead set on killing me, go for it. But you're killing 2 players when you do that, not one.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Happymeal » 10 Nov 2016, 05:05

Jordan767 wrote:Oh, also. Mechanical note: lynching me or stomping me kills justy the next night when he has no more non-larges to visit. I mean, if you're really dead set on killing me, go for it. But you're killing 2 players when you do that, not one.


You do bring up a good point. However, I'm not particularly frightful of this result. To be completely honest, I would advise people not to be afraid to lynch or stomp him if you really believe he's scum. Falling into scare tactics like this will hurt the town more than it'll help it.

Jordan, I know that if you are town this is coming from a good place so don't be upset when I state bluntly that people shouldn't listen to this sort of stuff, but I don't think we should avoid getting aggressive here. The town is currently winning and I think we have some time to fuck up. I just prefer we fuck up earlier than later.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Jordan767 » 10 Nov 2016, 05:15

Happymeal wrote:
Jordan767 wrote:Oh, also. Mechanical note: lynching me or stomping me kills justy the next night when he has no more non-larges to visit. I mean, if you're really dead set on killing me, go for it. But you're killing 2 players when you do that, not one.


You do bring up a good point. However, I'm not particularly frightful of this result. To be completely honest, I would advise people not to be afraid to lynch or stomp him if you really believe he's scum. Falling into scare tactics like this will hurt the town more than it'll help it.

Jordan, I know that if you are town this is coming from a good place so don't be upset when I state bluntly that people shouldn't listen to this sort of stuff, but I don't think we should avoid getting aggressive here. The town is currently winning and I think we have some time to fuck up. I just prefer we fuck up earlier than later.

Fair enough. But I did want to put it out there in case it does change anyone's cost/benefit analysis.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby shadowface » 10 Nov 2016, 17:57

Jordan767 wrote:More to say later. For now I just want to throw something out there.

Presumably yesterday's no-kill was ordered so sjg wouldn't arouse suspicion by surviving night 2. I mean, it's not assured, but it seems likely.

But sjg got lynched. So maybe the no-kill tonight was because they liked the game state as it was. Namely, with pressure on me and justy (the other NK candidate) pushing my mislynch rather hard.

That's my best guess.

Your argument does not not make any sense when you look at it zoomed out a little.

There is no reason for the mafia to set up a mislynch on small/med townies - really anyone else, but not small/med townies. Small/med townies are the only ones who a large scum can nightkill. Why wouldn't the large mafia you assume just kill you and Justy at night, starting now? It would set up lynches on the large players, which he's going to have to get anyways to win. It makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to pull this scheme, because the very players it would let them kill are the ones they must forgo a guaranteed kill to win.

Especially since of all players, I must say you and Justy are in the least enviable of positions. Some townies (myself included) largely considered squashing you last night for the sake of it. Why would the mafia try so hard to frame those players? The obvious decision is to kill the town as fast as possible, to try to minimize the number of lynches we have to go through.

We talked about this yesterday, and decided that it was less likely that mafia had pulled this lie and.... we were right. Sjg is scum. Today we have only a more perfect situation to enact this principle, because it makes no sense for large mafia to have given up a kill.

@Town: Weigh in here. I am very confident that I am right in this analysis and that Jordan is just squirming, but I don't want to let him squirm out of this logic.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Zoomzip » 10 Nov 2016, 17:58

@Shadow: I am reading you with interest. Please continue your dialog with Jordan. Engage with him.

Also, please note you are suggesting that yesterday was scum-scum in the final race. Are we that good as a town? If so, what evidence supports that theory?
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby shadowface » 10 Nov 2016, 18:54

Zoomzip wrote:Also, please note you are suggesting that yesterday was scum-scum in the final race. Are we that good as a town? If so, what evidence supports that theory?

Why not? You ask whether we are that good - what would make us worse? It is established fact that towns must be at least slightly better than random guessing would have it when it comes to lynching mafia (the whole point of the day's discourse). So why is it inconceivable that we would be right? A scumread is more likely scum than anyone else: it's the most fundamental principle of the game.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby shadowface » 10 Nov 2016, 18:55

Happymeal wrote:I'm not certain they would put all their chips in a single bag tbh (referring to your last statement). I still believe a large - small team is the team that makes this play.

Walk me through their rationale last night, please.
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Re: Bigger, Medium, Smaller Mafia Day 3

Postby Jordan767 » 10 Nov 2016, 19:59

Maybe the scum lied and can't actually kill one/both of us?

I have to be honest with you, I'm as surprised justy and I are still alive as you are.
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