Mafia CLIII: Big, Medium, Small Mafia Game Thread Day 1

[Conq]

@Shadow,

I am eager to hear you respond to my most recent post. Is this just an honest miscommunication that we are having? Do you understand why I think your vote on me is extremely poor? Do you think you accurately characterized my rationale for suspecting you to be scum?

Also, if I am scum, why do you think I claimed Medium? Do you think Scum would choose Medium? Do you think that a Small or Large scum would lie and say they are Medium?

What do you think of my proposal to arrange a lynch vote so that it is n vs. n+1? Do you think that is a useful approach for Town in order to gain more information about whether our two smalls are telling the truth? Do you think we can pull it off?

[Jordan767]

You know, asu is worrying me a little. He quoted my reasoning on pro-reveal and Conq on voting SF. Not sure he's contributed much on mechanics or anything that's not on mechanics.

Just a thought.

[Conq]

URGENT:

I'm going to repeat myself, because I think this is important. I really want to set up the vote this way:

Target #1: Small, Small (6)
Target #2: Medium, Medium, Large (5)
Abstain: Large

It would be really great to know for sure that the two smalls are actually telling the truth. Then if there is ever an unexpected kill in the night phase, we know those two are clear.

But if we are going to do this, we have to agree to do it soon. We need to set this up so that we have an opportunity to select Target #1 and Target #2 in advance. Perhaps we say that wherever the vote stands 4 hours prior to EOD, that is the vote count we use to select Target #1 (leading vote getter) and Target #2 (#2 vote getter).

Who agrees? Who disagrees? Why?

[Jordan767]

I cautiously agree, reasoning here: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=53852&start=50#p878738

I think if everyone agrees that we can pull it off, then let's do it. But if we think getting our votes set that way is unreasonable (and we haven't heard from sjg or UP since yesterday, so it probably is) then it's not really feasible.

[asudevil]

You know, asu is worrying me a little. He quoted my reasoning on pro-reveal and Conq on voting SF. Not sure he's contributed much on mechanics or anything that's not on mechanics.

Just a thought.

THERE it is.

The number one mechanical thing I have said...is that smalls should target mediums...which has been ignored completely. Because I agree that IF a scum lied about size...they lied and claimed small.

I have seconded Conq about Shadow who seems very un-natural in any reasons.

I was also the FIRST person to come out as pro-reveal...which I think is super pro-town...and was the FIRST person to claim...both of which started where we are...

So you worry about me. It's not a game of mafia until people are.

[asudevil]

URGENT:

I'm going to repeat myself, because I think this is important. I really want to set up the vote this way:

Target #1: Small, Small (6)
Target #2: Medium, Medium, Large (5)
Abstain: Large

It would be really great to know for sure that the two smalls are actually telling the truth. Then if there is ever an unexpected kill in the night phase, we know those two are clear.

But if we are going to do this, we have to agree to do it soon. We need to set this up so that we have an opportunity to select Target #1 and Target #2 in advance. Perhaps we say that wherever the vote stands 4 hours prior to EOD, that is the vote count we use to select Target #1 (leading vote getter) and Target #2 (#2 vote getter).

Who agrees? Who disagrees? Why?

I disagree...cause I think its dangerous to "lock in" votes 4 hours to go...and people unexpectedly gone...and then all of a sudden the scum isn't able to move cause they were "busy" and its just a mess. But Ill follow.

For the record...it just has to go 6/5...doesn't have to be small/small vs Med/Med/Lrg...it could go Small/Med/Lrg vs Small/Med...which would still prove the same thing wouldn't it? or no cause that doesn't guarantee the smalls both being honest....yeah...strike that...that doesn't help at all. But does show how hard its going to be to organize...especially since we are 24 hours in with basically nothing from 1/3 of our population.

[Jordan767]

Alright. I have some time, so let's discuss the truthfulness of sizeclaims. Notes:
-I'm evaluating people based only on their claims and other size-related posts, not on overall scumminess.
-I'm making each evaluation as if the person in question is scum, because if townies have lied we're already screwed.

I think a good assumption to make is that even if you're lying about your size, you won't say you're larger than you actually are. Why? It was always pretty likely that our visitation plan was going to have people visiting those of the same size, especially larges. So if you claim a size, but you're actually smaller than you claimed, you're going to get squished by someone of your claimed size. That leaves shadow and UP telling the truth. They really are large, assuming they played rationally.

I think if Conq, sjg, or me had been large we would have felt (and probably been) safe telling the truth given that there were already large reveals out there. For Conq and me, there also wouldn't really have been any advantage to claiming to be medium instead of large that I can think of. Sure, you can say we were large and wanted to present a "safe" but actually dangerous option for small townies. But it seemed pretty clear that Conq, at least, hadn't thought of that. Similarly, if sjg was medium, why would he have claimed small? So I think Conq, sjg, and I are being truthful.

Another assumption that becomes relevant at this point is that small is a terrible option for the mafia to pick: no NK and an incredible amount of vulnerability for whichever night they don't hide. So I think that to claim that, you would have to be a townie or a dishonest scum. I think sjg was being truthful (above), so let's look at asu. I think he's not medium, because I'm not sure what advantage he would gain from claiming small in that case. If he's large, and he claimed small to lure small townies into visiting him, then why on earth would he have raised the point that smalls should visit mediums instead? It didn't have to be said, and he would have been harming his agenda by saying that if he was mafia. So I think he was truthful.

Caveats:
-sjg could have been doing the whole "I'm safe for smalls, visit me!" thing,I just doubt it. Seems like a lot of risk to kill asu only. And he probably knew asu was gonna be cautious, so he might not have gotten anyone.
-Conq did come up with a vote plan that would disguise whether he was large or medium. But that's hardly a strong point, and I'm honestly not sure what other plan would have accomplished his stated goal.

So. I think nobody lied. Based on that, I'm gonna lean town on asu and sjg.

Also, I think that if nobody finds any flaws with my logic (and if you do, please speak up) then we probably don't need to work that hard on a voting scheme to prove people are telling the truth. Not that the data or the absolute proof would be bad, but we needn't kill ourselves over it or pursue it at the exclusion of other things.

[Jordan767]

You know, asu is worrying me a little. He quoted my reasoning on pro-reveal and Conq on voting SF. Not sure he's contributed much on mechanics or anything that's not on mechanics.

Just a thought.

THERE it is.

The number one mechanical thing I have said...is that smalls should target mediums...which has been ignored completely. Because I agree that IF a scum lied about size...they lied and claimed small.

I have seconded Conq about Shadow who seems very un-natural in any reasons.

I was also the FIRST person to come out as pro-reveal...which I think is super pro-town...and was the FIRST person to claim...both of which started where we are...

So you worry about me. It's not a game of mafia until people are.

I do actually agree that smalls should target whichever medium they feel safer about.

And I guess revealing first before everyone agrees is something you do as town (thinking Fable 7 here).

Fair enough.

[Jordan767]

We're less than 21 hours from deadline, and we haven't seen much at all from sjg or UP. Not good.

[asudevil]

And I guess revealing first before everyone agrees is something you do as town (thinking Fable 7 here).

Fair enough.

Blast from the past....were you in that game?

But we had majority...we didn't need everyone to agree....majority should rule unless someone who was opposed had a VERY good reason...which Shadow couldn't (still can't) describe his hesitation to what is the most pro-town thing we could do.

We couldn't afford to have people visiting people randomly at night...so reveal was the only way to "guarantee" only one night kill a night.