Mafia but no one knows the rules - Town/3P Wins!

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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby Strategus » 25 Nov 2020, 16:16

kimpossible wrote:
kimpossible wrote:
Strategus wrote:Does it not bother anyone else that we are being driven by a strategy created by a 3p, and enacted by a 3p and a player who is not participating?

On some level, yes it does, but even if UFO were scum here, I can't fathom a world where sjg also has access to secret comms with the scum team, and I didn't see either one target the other with a limerick. So I'm asking you to examine UFO's behavior and compare it to known scum games. I'm not sure what shenanigans you're theorizing between them, but I think you might be headed down a path of paranoia here, and sometimes you're right to do so, but I don't think this is one of them, or at least not the time to start looking for emergency glass to break.

Plus -- right or wrong, I at least know this whole thing has produced material that should get more readable later in the game. It's not like we are hiring blindly down the road those two have laid out for us.

PPE: Fair enough. I'm happy with "Leave it for later but don't lock the game onto the read."
Plus, I with the speed (impatience?) that SJG rolled it out, I am not convinced he actually gave a shit what alignment ufo is.
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby sjg11 » 25 Nov 2020, 16:32

Holy shit.

I've just realised something.

I am 95% sure I have caught two Mafia here.

Hang on, monster post incoming.
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby AKFD » 25 Nov 2020, 16:39

sjg11 wrote:Holy shit.

I've just realised something.

I am 95% sure I have caught two Mafia here.

Hang on, monster post incoming.


Hanging on tight here!
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby Nanook » 25 Nov 2020, 16:52

sjg11 wrote:So... my current conclusion is this:

AKFD accidentally voted in Blood Red not Regular Red. By coincidence, this happened to activate Rule 9. Subs then voted for AKFD based on this.

So... I think Subs reacting to AKFD is a solid towntell. I suspect that scum Sub just views AKFD's misformatted vote as a coincidence and likely doesn't even consider the possibility that it could be construed as a scum slip. I know I wouldn't have in scum Sub's shoes with AKFD as town in that scenario. I also discount any scum-Sub vs scum-AKFD scenario. The whole exchange makes no sense in that context.

AKFD could still be scum. But not because of the misformatted vote. If that vote was anything other than a coincidence, sjg will change his badge to a Spurs logo for the next game he plays. Besides, the fact peeps were so quick to jump on him makes me suspect he's just town. It was an aggressive bus where a bus was not necessary if AKFD is scum. Overall? Seems less likely than the scenario where AKFD was meant to be today's patsy.

I also tend to think The Dingus is town here. Being loudly incorrect about things isn't generally scum Dingus' style. It's more consistent with town Dingus who is overcomplicating a simple situation and is charging down the wrong path.

Currently, sjg's main lines of suspicion fall on two players who seemed to conclude that both parties were town yet kind of sat back, sipped some tea, ate some lovely popcorn and allowed the thread to be sucked into crazy town. It's what scum sjg would probably do while the town was merrily dancing down the garden path. Particularly the tea part. Sjg is British after all.

Lecrae and nook- why weren't you slapping some sense into Keirador, Telleo and kim here? You were both... passive. Very passive. I'm not used to passiveness from my town lecrae or my town nook. You should have been the guys telling both sides they were heading down the wrong path. And you weren't. You sat back and let things degenerate. Not a good sign.

I'm gonna go for lecrae for the vote. His votes have largely been thrown away and weakly justified. He's not engaging with the main threads of conversation that are emerging. Any engagement he does have is generally down a side path that nobody else is focusing on and there's no oomph to it. It isn't going anywhere. He also sat back and allowed the Keir/Telleo conversation to progress towards a bad conclusion without affecting said conversation in any way. Not a fan. He's not getting involved in the things he should be getting involved in. It's not a good look. It looks like a scum watching the town kill itself while ensuring he's not in a position to catch any flak for it when we're at Day 3 with a dead town AKFD and a dead town Subotai.

Nook at least has the excuse that he's just replaced into the thread for being passive. I see no such excuse for lecrae. I'll admit that this was almost balanced out by the fact that nook is far too New England to avoid a good argument when it presents itself which it did last night. I've never seen town nook shy away from confrontation before. Again, the chance this is caused by him replacing in is really the main factor protecting him from a vote here.

Fatmo, your engagement has been better than the above but you're also a player who's more capable of directing town convo than you have been doing so far here. It has been noted. In a town that appears to be heading in the wrong direction? It's not exactly a great look.

If the above was not clear, I suggest everyone votes in Blood Red for the rest of this game. Get in the habit of it and we avoid scum shenanigans later in the day/game. If everyone's vote counts as two then nobody's vote is doubled compared to anybody else.

I actively try not to play that way anymore. It isn’t fun or productive.
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby Nanook » 25 Nov 2020, 16:55

kimpossible wrote:Interesting take on Lecrae. I'd like to see how he responds to my mail back to him a bit ago, but I'm not unwilling to vote there based on the current game state.

I disagree with your Nook assessment as him just sitting back though, he definitely was arguing the "this is no coincidence" side of things last night. Just less vociferously than Keir.

This is accurate
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby AKFD » 25 Nov 2020, 16:58

lecrae

I'll head to bed now. Good night guys.
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby Nanook » 25 Nov 2020, 17:00

AKFD wrote:I love what Sjg's inputting into the thread so far.

Lecrae's been out of the spotlight for an awfully long time. He wasn't like this in all of his previous town games (Pick Your Poison, The Room, Monsterhearts, Fable 15)
Looking back at it, he hasn't really contributed much to the main point of today (me accidentally triggering rule 9) except for saying that he believes me and Subs are town.
His vote on Strategus was so god awful and I don't even wanna analyze it.

From what I recall from Lecrae's meta, he's normally leading discussions like Kim as town, and he's more passive as scum unless he's forced into the spotlight.

I don't hate Sjg's vote on Lecrae, as I feel like he's been given too much of a pass so far.

Nanook's been quite engaged for a replacement, and I'm believing him when he says that he's gonna understand this game more after D1. Although it's common for Nanook to just blow the meta away and do stuff either alignment, so I'll wait until I can get a solid case on Nanook.

I still think Fatmo's town, but not as much as last time, because like Lecrae, he hasn't been involved much in today's chaos. But we'll see.
Also seeing the Telleo/Keir arguments make me believe that they're on the same alignments due to meta (The Room and Monsterhearts), and since I believe Telleo's town, that should make me believe that Keir's town too. If both are scum, I wouldn't be surprised because they're stellar as scum, and I'm happy that I've played as scum with both of them at least once!
I'm becoming more confident with Strat being town.

On Subotai45, a world in which Subotai's reaction is genuine town frustration is plausible. Sjg said that Subotai didn't lie about his rule, which makes me put him in null.

POE:
Sjg11's third party.
I have Telleo, UFO Fever, Kimpossible, Keirador as solid town.
I have Fatmo, Strategus, Nanook as townlean.

This leaves: lecrae, GregorV, Subotai45, Justinrs2. I'm 70% sure that 2 of the 3 scum is in this pool.

I already said that Subotai45 will be in null for me, and probably Gregor.
This means lecrae and Justinrs2 are my scumleans, with lecrae as a stronger scumlean.

@Sjg, to stop you from using the l-word, do you want me to change my pfp to Spurs if you say it one more time?

It’s not really a meta thing and more of an “I wasn’t really prepared to play until after this weekend but shadow asked and there weren’t any other subs signed up so I said yes cause I know how much of a pain it is to get people who didn’t even sign up as a reserve to sub in despite not *really* having the time/energy/desire to figure out the game early on” thing.
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby Justinrs2 » 25 Nov 2020, 17:08

I'm way, way, behind, but I really don't like Kim's argument that AKFD should be let off the hook because he's acting too scummy and scum wouldn't act like that.
GregorV wrote:
Justinrs2 wrote:@Gregor here is the question

Feels kind of silly to be pushing it so much when it isn't as important as this akfd/sub stuff is, but I'd still like an answer when you're able.


Quoting you:

"Bolded in particular. When would policy killing sjg be a good idea? Lay out a hypothetical scenario. Your example makes no sense to me- if sjg lays out "fiery bad rules" then we will be focused on dealing with the ramifications of that.

But you were saying, earlier, that we must policy kill sjg. Why?"

I was originally pursuing a mandatory policy kill of sjg because I frankly didn't believe their claim of 3P enough to just trust that they wouldn't end the game on a 3P victory. Still not sure we shouldn't policy that kill down the line, but I'm nowhere near a "must" on it.

Also if it comes out that there is some scum-only rule, we may need to policy kill sjg before or after sjg gets a chance to win, just to verify that the rule was true.

Okay, clarifying you thought they might not be TP explains a lot of your attitude.

You seem to have dropped it so I won't keep dragging on it. Your logic has enough internal consistency I'm not willing to hold it against you.
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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby sjg11 » 25 Nov 2020, 17:12

lecrae wrote:Controversial yet brave opinion; both Subotai and AK are town?

I'm not following much of the mechanical talk, but tonally Subotai's reaction reads exactly how I'd expect a townie to react under pressure: real frustration. And if it's true that he's only played one scum all those years ago...I mean, Greg did pretty well last game as a first-in-a-while scummy, but it's a leap.

Firstly, I want to point you to the post that had me scum reading lecrae in the first place. This post was from lecrae last night. Up to this point, lecrae had been a bit round the fringes of the town's debates during Day One. My ears began twitching in lecrae's direction when I saw this post. Town lecrae, at this point, steps in and gets involved and aims to defuse what he views as a town-town situation flailing wildly out of control. Scum lecrae sits on the sidelines, sips some tea and eats some popcorn.

What does lecrae do from this point in the thread? He sits back, sips some tea and eats some popcorn.

First Part of sjg's theory: Lecrae is Mafia

lecrae wrote:
kimpossible wrote:I also think you're acting like scum backed into a corner right now, now that pressure is being applied. And that your last game showed you are capable of decent town play.


This is probably confirmation bias and not alignment-indicative (or maybe you really did catch Sub in a lie too much headache for me to figure out), but why is Sub's reaction looking like scum backed into a corner? Just tonally it doesn't feel like that at all.

Sub made concessions when necessary and found places to agree with opposition. Sub challenged the town to re-read his own words and find the contradictions, something I only have the balls to do as town. Sub's engaging and he's frustrated, but I don't see where he's scum caught in a corner.

Subotai45 wrote:
lecrae wrote:
Okay yeah, that did read as a bit forced ngl. Strat didn't really do that much to antagonize Kim (though UFO did take Kim's side and I think one of them's town). Telleo bringing things up from my subconscious tonight.

...Fine, let's have fun! Kimpossible. Gonna steal Strat's crown for number of games in which I vote her.


So I commented on lecrae's strat vote, but this is another example of him just tossing out votes with little case behind them. If you look through his posts on Kim, there's some vague unease and then he lept on Telleo's comment about the fake outrage around Strat and dropped a vote.

I'd like to see lecrae actually justify a vote sometime tomorrow if he's done road-tripping. I'm deeply sympathetic to real life coming first, but I want to point out the pattern because while everyone is denouncing the Strat vote, it's not like his others are any good either. I'm not sure whether this is an isolated issue because he's playing from gas stations or whatevs, or if he's just having a hard time making cases as scum, but it doesn't look good.


This is fair considering, as Strat knows actually, my scum meta was definitely "throw votes on people to fake a genuine process". Unfortunately it's been hard to engage with certain aspects of today otherwise so my game is looking a lot like that right now.

I wanted Kim to engage before she got back, but my vote on Strategus specifically was because he exhibited some characteristics which I spoke about at length to Kim privately in Fable.
-scumStrat is more agreeable and conciliatory.
-scumStrat tends to breadcrumb his thought process more than townStrat. townStrat just states what he wants to and doesn't gaf.
-scumStrat doesn't have as strong of reads as townStrat does. In Tag Mafia I remember Strat

Strat's posting has been mixed and I liked his reaction to my vote actually, but overall I can't shake how different his posts are from what I'm used to seeing in townStrat. He's matched up with each of those points at different times today. It could be an attempt to change his meta after the backlash Kim gave him last game, but...is it really? I dunno.

Kim's vote really confuses me because of that context. She also specifically asked me to be the "Strat reader" this game in an early post, and so the jump from "wtf is this vote, I don't understand" to "wtf is this vote, it's definitely scummy" is jarring - she literally asked me to read Strat for her then voted me when I produced a vote she didn't understand. But I don't want to put words in Kim's mouth because she probs has an explanation.

First point sjg wants y'all to note here: Lecrae's weak ass defence of Sub to kim. Town lecrae pushes it more. Scum lecrae releases a vaguely justifiable defence and doesn't push it. Lecrae did the latter. Thus, sjg concludes that lecrae is Mafia.

Second point, I want you to note the lecrae-Strat interactions in the thread. Lecrae's Strat case is weak. Really weak. And he focuses a lot on the Strat case when more important things are going on around him. What does this suggest to sjg? Either distancing or lecrae knows too much about Strat's alignment and is seeing things that aren't there and thinks the town should see them too. Lecrae, in essence knowing that Strat is his scum buddy, is making an argument starting from that conclusion and has thus, in thread, decided that Strat is scummier than he would appear to a regular townie.

This lead sjg to the second part of his theory: That lecrae and Strategus are scum buddies in this game

Here I want to lead you to the third part of sjg's theory:

The rules we were given were directly tied to our alignment

There is a lot of evidence for this. For example, me, having to figure out all the rules of the game, gets access to the neon green ability that allows me to research an individual rule as the result of an investigation. Moreover, if rules were assigned randomly, the scum could, from the start of the game, have had access to Rules 15 and 16. This would have completely unbalanced the game and would have been fundamentally unfair to the town. The scum, in that scenario, would have had access to two extra NKs than they would ordinarily have. This would have been fundamentally unfair on the town. Rules MUST be tied to alignment.

As Telleo succinctly said earlier, rules are roles in this game. Nobody had, up to this point, made an attempt to analyse the revealed rules to figure out people's alignment. Naturally I was in a better position than anybody else to do this given the amount of brain power I've sent in this direction so far.

At this point, sjg went back to look at his handy chart of rules he submitted to shadowface and the observations he has been able to make about the rules. Two players, in particular, stood out as having access to anti-town rules. Coincidentally these two players were:

Lecrae and Strategus

Let's start with Strategus. Strategus' first-rule is Rule 3. This is the rule which contains the information about the scum. How many there are, factional NK status, wincon etc. This would, obviously, make a lot of sense as a rule to give to the scum. Although it's not outside of the bounds of possibility to give said rule to a townie.

What interests me more is that Strategus also has access to Rule 13. This is the information I have so far concerning the Rule 11/12/13 triad:

Rule 11 is how to activate the ability
Rule 12 is what ability a townie gets by activating it
Rule 13 is what ability a scum gets by activating it

This would fit with the only rule in this game which worked in a similar way. Namely the Rule 15/16/17 triad:

Rule 15 is how to activate the ability
Rule 16 is what ability a scum gets by activating it
Rule 17 is what ability a town gets by activating it

With regards to the Rule 15/16/17 triad, we KNOW that lecrae had access to the scum ability after the rule has been activated.

In relation to the Rule 11/12/13 triad, we KNOW that kim and UFO Fever have access to the town ability after the rule has been activated and how to activate the rule. We know that Strategus' Rule 13 is connected to Rule 11. Thus it seems logical to assume that Strategus has access to the scum ability after Rule 11 has been activated.

Moreover, lecrae's other Rule is Rule 2. I have, naturally, spent all day, peppering shadow with guesses to try to establish where the fucking potato rule is. I have currently not found said rule.

Here's the thing though, I used all my guesses on Rule 2 earlier in the day on generic boilerplate clauses. My general findings about the rules is that the earlier rules are boilerplate rules and the later rules are the abilities. The dividing line appears to be Rule 9.

Rule 2 is currently the only outstanding rule which could be the potato rule on my chart. I fully intended to open Day 2 by guessing it and I have a high level of confidence that it will be a hit. Thus, I conclude that Rule 2 is the potato rule, held by lecrae. I note it is possible that something about my potato guesses is slightly incorrect and this is why my guesses have been rejected. If Telleo feels comfortable doing so, I would appreciate clarity on the potato rule so I can check whether my guesses should have activated the rule or not.

I find it odd that lecrae and Strat have the two scum abilities in the two Triads and both of their other rules either contain anti-town rules or a rule which contains important information for the Mafia to have.

This, combined with their in-thread interactions and the behavioural notes about lecrae noted above, lead me strongly to conclude that lecrae and Strategus are two members of the Mafia.

I suspect I know who Number Three is as well but I need a night to investigate them before I can verify on that front. UFO- check with kim whether my understanding of the Rule 11/12/13 triad is correct or not. My suggestion would be for you to investigate Rule 13 tonight to verify whether it is the scum ability gained by Strat if Rule 11 is activated.

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Re: Mafia but no one knows the rules - Day 1

Postby Nanook » 25 Nov 2020, 17:14

The rules we were given are not tied to our alignments
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