Broken Randomizer

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Broken Randomizer

Postby Pete the Great » 03 Apr 2019, 03:58

Since joining PlayDip I have started 4 games and in every one of them I have been assigned Turkey. Really!!! 4 out of 4, something is broken. In this most recent start I even started a game with preferences and selected F/E/R as my 1/2/3 choices, just so I cold look at some different territory. You guessed it, I got TURKEY !!! Thank God for a rating shield and abandoned positions or I would forever more be fighting in the Balkans. You might want to look at your assignment coding, because something is fishy in Denmark, err maybe we should change that saying to Aegean. :lol:
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby sinnybee » 03 Apr 2019, 05:10

The randomizer isn't broken.
I suggest you play a game using the first come, first served (FCFS) country assignment method; that way, you can be 100% sure you won't be playing Turkey.
It's an assignment method that, in my opinion, should be allowed, even for ranked games.
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby Mr.E » 03 Apr 2019, 09:21

FCFS doesn't guarantee anything, of course. It gives you a better chance of getting the power you don't want. But if you're the last to select a power you have no choice.

As for preferences, if more than one player selects the same power then in the first round, then it is randomly assigned (I believe). Any players not assigned their first choice will be given their second choice, except where more than one player chooses the same second choice, when the power is randomly assigned. This is repeated for the third choice. Given that F/E/R are likely to be popular choices, I would think they would have all been assigned in round one is the process, leaving you with no preference.

The chances of being assigned the same power in three consecutive games is only 1/49. Not a probability to bet on, but neither is it atrociously unlikely.
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby Don Juan of Austria » 03 Apr 2019, 11:39

The chances of randomly drawing 1 country out of 7 countries 4 times in a row, is 1 out of 2401. :D
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby super_dipsy » 03 Apr 2019, 12:07

Pete the Great wrote:Since joining PlayDip I have started 4 games and in every one of them I have been assigned Turkey. Really!!! 4 out of 4, something is broken. In this most recent start I even started a game with preferences and selected F/E/R as my 1/2/3 choices, just so I cold look at some different territory. You guessed it, I got TURKEY !!! Thank God for a rating shield and abandoned positions or I would forever more be fighting in the Balkans. You might want to look at your assignment coding, because something is fishy in Denmark, err maybe we should change that saying to Aegean. :lol:

Nothing wrong with the randomizer, just the old bell curve :)

These types of sequences do come up. As you probably realize your 4 in a row in random games is actually not 4 in a row, your actual sequence was T, T, E and T. But still, 3 out of 4 is not what you might have hoped for. Unfortunately, random means exactly that, and random can give staistically improbable runs (which is how people break the bank at roulette of course :D ).

Your point on preferences does remind me though that I was going to take a look at the preferences mechanism because I have heard people suggest before it may be a bit dodgy. It's one of those things that has been there since the dawn of time, so it may well be a bit screwy :o . I've put it on my list
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby Pete the Great » 03 Apr 2019, 13:15

Thank you super_dipsy, a check up under the hood was all I was hoping for.

If I get a Turkish start 5 times in row I'll buy a lottery ticket, as I will really be breaking the odds. :D
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby Pootleflump » 03 Apr 2019, 13:16

Like me, you will be a Turkey Pro. I also got an improbable run of Turkey's when I started.

We're the lucky ones.

Imagine 4 Austria's on the trot.
But, I nearly forgot, you must close your eyes otherwise you won't see anything

Imagination is the only weapon in the war against reality
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby OldBaldGuy » 03 Apr 2019, 17:01

Random events tend to cluster.
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby Mr.E » 03 Apr 2019, 18:57

Don Juan of Austria wrote:The chances of randomly drawing 1 country out of 7 countries 4 times in a row, is 1 out of 2401. :D

Not to make this a maths argument but the probability of drawing any given country in 4 consecutive games is:
1 X 1/7 X 1/7 X 1/7 = 1/343
because the first power could be any power.

The probability of drawing a certain power in 4 consecutive games is 1/2401 because in the first game you're looking to draw a given power, eg England.
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Re: Broken Randomizer

Postby sinnybee » 03 Apr 2019, 19:35

Mr.E wrote:FCFS doesn't guarantee anything, of course. It gives you a better chance of getting the power you don't want.

lol what?? Choosing power X in a FCFS game gives you a 100% chance of getting power X!
It is a guarantee!

Mr.E wrote:But if you're the last to select a power you have no choice.

You always have a choice! You pick the power you want to play and you get that power! If that power has already been chosen by another player, then you join a different game! If there isn't a FCFS game available with the power you want to play, then you create a game.
If you don't care which power you play, then you can join as the 7th player to the game and not have to wait for the game to proceed to confirmations.

Mr.E wrote:
Don Juan of Austria wrote:The chances of randomly drawing 1 country out of 7 countries 4 times in a row, is 1 out of 2401. :D

Not to make this a maths argument but the probability of drawing any given country in 4 consecutive games is:
1 X 1/7 X 1/7 X 1/7 = 1/343
because the first power could be any power.

The probability of drawing a certain power in 4 consecutive games is 1/2401 because in the first game you're looking to draw a given power, eg England.

Don Juan was right. He said "The chances of randomly drawing 1 country out of 7 countries 4 times in a row", not "The chances of randomly drawing any of the 7 countries 4 times in a row". (Your math is also correct, Mr.E.)
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