Solo victories count doesn't add up

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Solo victories count doesn't add up

Postby pdg415 » 09 Jan 2019, 04:40

This may be more of a question than a bug.

On the Stats / Games page, I would expect the "total number of solo victories" to equal the sum of the solo victories for each country. For Classic and Standard games, the unclaimed solo victories are 0.4% or less of the total. But for Gunboat and Fog of War, about 20% are unaccounted for. For example, for Gunboat games:

Total number of Solo Victories: 5066

Victories by:
Turkey 998
Germany 647
...
Solo victories by each of the seven powers: 4088
Unclaimed solos: = 5066 - 4088 = 978

Are these other solos all from Gunboat games of other variants, so the other winners are USSR and Poland and ...?
If so, it would be nice to have a more flexible dropdown filter. The question I was trying to answer is: how are the powers affected by the opportunity to negotiate? To do that, I wanted to compare the win rates of regular classic games with gunboat classic games. If, for example, Russia secures 18% of all solo victories in regular classic games (2nd most after Turkey) but only 11% of all gunboat classic games (2nd worst, beating only Austria), I would conclude that Russia's military position is objectively comparatively weak but diplomacy makes it strong in practice.
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Re: Solo victories count doesn't add up

Postby super_dipsy » 09 Jan 2019, 08:10

You are correct in that stats for variants such as gunboat include all maps. The slices available are by map, by Standard/All games and by major variant class eg FoW, Gunboat.

I realize it is frustrating that there is no BI tool that would allow slicing and dicing of the data by all dimensions, but frankly it is just too much expense to look at putting such a generic intelligence tool in place for a game site like ours :( . So all we can do is provide a small selection of slices, which is what we do today. In other words, not a bug but just the way it is designed to work today.

Since you are interested in the effect of not having negotiations, this may be of interest. Looking at ranked games on the Classic map only without Fog of War and otherwise normal games (no game variants like AoE or anything) the non-gb vs gb total solos look like

(format is solo count(non-gb) / solo count (gb)
EDIT: Got the labels the wrong way around, corrected now. Thx condude!

Eng - 1689 / 104
Fra - 2136 / 158
Ita - 1303 / 135
Ger - 1970 / 160
Aus - 1637 / 63
Tur - 2500 / 274
Rus - 2652 / 88
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Re: Solo victories count doesn't add up

Postby condude1 » 09 Jan 2019, 08:35

Dipsy, are those numbers reversed? I assume non-GB has many more solos than GB, and that Turkey handily outperforms Russia in GB.
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Re: Solo victories count doesn't add up

Postby super_dipsy » 09 Jan 2019, 09:55

Yes, got it wrong first time. Corrected now :)
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Re: Solo victories count doesn't add up

Postby Groo » 09 Jan 2019, 12:55

pdg415 wrote:Russia secures 18% of all solo victories in regular classic games (2nd most after Turkey) but only 11% of all gunboat classic games (2nd worst, beating only Austria), I would conclude that Russia's military position is objectively comparatively weak but diplomacy makes it strong in practice.


I'm by no means an expert but the reason for this is obvious:
usually in gunboat people tend to play more aggro (all or nothing mentality)
->Turkey more often opens BLA + Arm
->if Russia also goes for an aggro opening (Mos-Stp!) this leads to his quick death by Turkey.

If you oversimplify the math there: there is roughly 50% chance that Turkey will open anti-Russian and 50% chance that Russia won't open defensive against Turkey...
I think this is the reason for both Turkey's better performance and Russia's worse performance re solos in gunboats.
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