Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

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Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DQ » 03 May 2020, 17:01

In the tenth edition of the Diplomacy Academy series, I examine a crucial element of the game: Negotiations. What does it mean to speak in a language they understand, and why is it so important?
In the first example, from the 2014 World Championships, three top level players try to persuade an unusual audience to work with them.
In the second example, from a 2020 house game, an English player runs into trouble when their builds aren't in line with their moves.



I've tried a bunch of new stuff in this one, so feedback very much appreciated on what did/didn't work, too long, not focused enough, etc.
Stab you soon!
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DrunkWarGamer » 03 May 2020, 21:45

This is very good. Thank for you taking the time to do it...well done!
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DQ » 03 May 2020, 22:53

EricNoland wrote:This is very good. Thank for you taking the time to do it...well done!


Thank you sir! I incorporated a few new elements - the voice-over-still images bit, and the captured live stream - did you have a part that you thought worked particularly well or poorly?
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DrunkWarGamer » 04 May 2020, 02:07

DQ wrote:
EricNoland wrote:This is very good. Thank for you taking the time to do it...well done!


Thank you sir! I incorporated a few new elements - the voice-over-still images bit, and the captured live stream - did you have a part that you thought worked particularly well or poorly?


Oh I'm not an expert on editing at all. Or video production. It was produced really well...but I can't comment on that. :)

I liked your content most of all. I liked how you went into about how a message is perceived, how that's different than what's coming out of your mouth, and to try to at least be aware of it. I like how people in the state department judged others but their "gut"..I don't know if this the right wording here. I like the discussion of the heuristics people use.

Have you read Sources of Power by Gary Klein? Its a medium sized read but it reads fast. You guy talk about a lot of the same things.
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DQ » 04 May 2020, 02:36

EricNoland wrote:
I liked your content most of all. I liked how you went into about how a message is perceived, how that's different than what's coming out of your mouth, and to try to at least be aware of it. I like how people in the state department judged others but their "gut"..I don't know if this the right wording here. I like the discussion of the heuristics people use.

Have you read Sources of Power by Gary Klein? Its a medium sized read but it reads fast. You guy talk about a lot of the same things.


OK, I'm glad I'm on the right track content-wise, for you! I haven't read any of Gary's work, but I will definitely check it out!
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby VGhost » 05 May 2020, 00:43

I'd love more detail on why (in the second example) you think the convoy's the wrong move. The builds, sure, you want F Liv; builds as given tell Germany "I don't really trust you" (although playing without a fleet in the North Sea seems like a bad idea in principle for England). But not convoying, your scenario sees England lose Brest: the only person who profits is Germany.

The point of the example was builds as a negotiation tactic but I don't follow the tactical analysis as given.
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"I'm not panicking, I'm watching you panic. It's more entertaining." - Elli Quinn
"[Diplomacy:] No dice or chance. Just calculated insincerity." - Counter Trap
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DQ » 05 May 2020, 04:57

VGhost wrote:I'd love more detail on why (in the second example) you think the convoy's the wrong move. The builds, sure, you want F Liv; builds as given tell Germany "I don't really trust you" (although playing without a fleet in the North Sea seems like a bad idea in principle for England). But not convoying, your scenario sees England lose Brest: the only person who profits is Germany.

The point of the example was builds as a negotiation tactic but I don't follow the tactical analysis as given.


Sure, great question. First though, remember that England had two builds, so a fleet was moving to the North Sea in the fall.

Having built Army London, England has two choices; convoy to Picardy, or wait until fall, when an alternate convoying fleet can get into place, right?

Given that, France knows one of two things will happen. EITHER they will succeed in moving Portugal -> MAO, (the fleet in the channel is convoying the army to Pic, or it is moving to MAO). OR, Burgundy - Pic & Spain -> Gascony, means that England has to correctly guess which move Paris is supporting, and bounce the other one, or there will be three attackers against Bre in the fall.

This all is much less good if Germany plows into Burgundy, of course, but from a purely F v E standpoint, France is now very likely to re-capture Brest in F02.

F Por -> MAO
A Par S Bur -> Pic OR Par S Spa -> Gas
A Bur -> Pic
A Spa -> Gas

vs.

1)Bounce F Portugal
F Eng -> MAO
A Bre -> Pic OR Bre -> Gas

2) Convoy to Pic
F Eng C Lon -> Pic
A Bre S Lon -> Pic

If you're France, you have to like those odds. Check it out for yourself - https://www.backstabbr.com/sandbox/DipAcad10-Spring-1902/5411708149956608

As France, there's no percentage in NOT supporting the attack on Picardy here. If there is a convoy, you've bounced it and arrived in Gascony. If there isn't, you've locked in Picardy, and NOW England has to choose between letting you into the MAO or supporting Brest. Either way, absent German intervention, you're going to get Brest back no later than 1903.

Does that make sense?

England's play here hinges on someone else attacking France - could be Italy, but he'd rather it be Germany. I walked through that in some detail in the video with the "IF England builds F Liverpool" section. In the Spring, English channel goes to MAO, in the fall, it supports Brest, which supports German army Bur -> Munich. (In that scenario, as France, Paris supports Spain to Gascony, so that can't be prevented). Once Germany is in Burgundy, France is toast. England might lose Brest for a year, but being able to force the MAO without allowing France a forward retreat is worth WAY more than that center, and France should never build again. You have to negotiate for a makeup build somewhere else - Sweden or Belgium or even stab Russia for StP (IN THE FALL), but your position as England is AMAZING. Even just on 4, you have F MAO/Eng/Nth/Nwy, and if you've kept Bre, well, now you're well on your way to rounding Iberia and heading for Tunis.

Sure, Germany profits a bit more than England in the short run - especially if they are greedy and try to pick up all of Swe/Bel/Par in 1902! But Germany on 8 in Spring 1903 is going to pull a lot of aggro, which is why I'm inclined to give one of those dots to England, fwiw.

Finally, this is one of the hardest things about trying to make consumable diplomacy content - there are so many damn variables! :D
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby gsmx » 05 May 2020, 05:14

I think England’s biggest sin here was being indecisive and taking half measures. My read of this situation is that he was genuinely tempted to go with France and then ultimately decided against it but didn’t want to be obvious about that with his builds (which ultimately he was).

This was the time for decisiveness. Either commit against France and do the Lvp build or be decisive against Germany and build fleets in London and Edi. Given Russia is odd man out in the east there was a path that could have been taken for REF that ‘may’ have had some potential if England really felt he suddenly had a better connection with France or soured on Germany or just got spooked by the potential of a central alliance, which looking at the map would have been reasonable. Immediate reconciliation after a stab is not only possible, sometimes it’s very powerful. But you can’t leave room for doubt in your sincerity and those builds left an extreme amount doubt.

(Great video btw DQ!)
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Re: Diplomacy Academy 10: Improve Negotiations

Postby DQ » 05 May 2020, 05:43

Thank you sir!

Yes, I think Edi Birsan pointed out in the youtube comments that there is an E/F path forward, where Bre -> Pic -> Bel is the 02 order for the convoyed Army, possibly combined with R to take Denmark off G as well.
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