Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

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How confident would you have to be that the stab in the OP would work, to make you try it?

I would never (or almost never) stab, for qualitative reasons.
0
No votes
I would never (or almost never) stab, because a 3way and 4way are the same to me.
5
19%
80%+
5
19%
70%+
3
12%
60%+
0
No votes
50%+
1
4%
I would always (or almost always) stab, because a 4way draw equals a loss to me but a 3way is worth more.
0
No votes
I would always (or almost always) stab, for qualitative reasons.
6
23%
I am indifferent, because either way I don't solo.
6
23%
 
Total votes : 26

Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby jay65536 » 26 Jun 2018, 22:16

Those numbers look incredibly skewed. Where are you getting them from?
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby NoPunIn10Did » 26 Jun 2018, 23:12

jay65536 wrote:Those numbers look incredibly skewed. Where are you getting them from?


It's the percentage after an Elo transformation. Elo uses Actual - Expected as its basis, and Expected in a seven-player Diplomacy game is 1/7 or ~14.29% on average.

A loss represents, on average, a delta of -14.29%. A seven-way, on average, is a delta of 0%.

25% - 14.29% = 10.71%
33.33% - 14.29% = 19.04%

Now what this amounts to in actual ratings points, I can only estimate, but I've found that the proportions between 3-way / 4-way / 5-way / etc. hold up.
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby jay65536 » 27 Jun 2018, 00:17

OK so I see what's going on here; it's just a straight arithmetic shift so that a 7-way is valued at 0.

But even by your numbers, it's still clear you're laying 3:1. The difference between a 4way and 3way (according to your numbers) is ~8.33, and the difference between a 4way and a loss is ~25. You still are risking 3 times what you stand to gain (again, assuming you even value draws this way).
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby NoPunIn10Did » 27 Jun 2018, 01:40

jay65536 wrote:OK so I see what's going on here; it's just a straight arithmetic shift so that a 7-way is valued at 0.

But even by your numbers, it's still clear you're laying 3:1. The difference between a 4way and 3way (according to your numbers) is ~8.33, and the difference between a 4way and a loss is ~25. You still are risking 3 times what you stand to gain (again, assuming you even value draws this way).


Oh, I know that. But as I said it’s about the perception of the difference. That, and a player that comes into a game with a higher rating than his opponents may need at least a 3-way to earn any points. Even though the ultimate distance between loss and draw doesn’t change, the draw rewards seem more magnified in comparison to one another when the Expected value is higher.

So either you were being goaded into the stab by someone making this understandable perceptual error, or they were hoping to get you to make a similar error and benefit by it.
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby jay65536 » 28 Jun 2018, 21:14

Yes, I've noticed from my very first game on this site that disingenuous draw whittling proposals seem to be quite common. I assume the reason they are tried so often is because they work often enough to allow solos to be coughed up.
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby Goatboy » 01 Aug 2018, 03:30

David E. Cohen wrote:If I trust that no one is going to freak out or do something stupid, then draw whittling is a pointless waste of time, and I have in fact threatened and am willing to carry out a threat to throw a solo to someone else rather then let a draw whittler have their way. Once they realize I am serious, the game is usually ended VERY quickly. :lol:

If as you say, Chris, there is a chance that the game dynamic will change because of the stab, then I would give it a shot.



Why is "draw whittling" a pointless waste of time. Doesn't a 3 way draw increase your ranking by more than a 4 way draw?
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby DQ » 01 Aug 2018, 13:35

Goatboy76 wrote:
David E. Cohen wrote:If I trust that no one is going to freak out or do something stupid, then draw whittling is a pointless waste of time, and I have in fact threatened and am willing to carry out a threat to throw a solo to someone else rather then let a draw whittler have their way. Once they realize I am serious, the game is usually ended VERY quickly. :lol:

If as you say, Chris, there is a chance that the game dynamic will change because of the stab, then I would give it a shot.



Why is "draw whittling" a pointless waste of time. Doesn't a 3 way draw increase your ranking by more than a 4 way draw?


There are a lot of arguments to be made here, mostly "religious" in nature (inasmuch as they point back to reasons that amount to "because I believe it to be true"), but the fundamental basis of the argument is that "rankings" is a stupid sub-optimal metric for how to play Diplomacy.

See many, many, many other threads on the subject.
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby jay65536 » 01 Aug 2018, 15:05

And in addition to what DQ said, which I agree with, this entire thread is about the fact that even if you value draw-whittling, there are situations where you still shouldn't do it because the risk/reward isn't right.
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby David E. Cohen » 01 Aug 2018, 16:33

Goatboy76 wrote:
David E. Cohen wrote:If I trust that no one is going to freak out or do something stupid, then draw whittling is a pointless waste of time, and I have in fact threatened and am willing to carry out a threat to throw a solo to someone else rather then let a draw whittler have their way. Once they realize I am serious, the game is usually ended VERY quickly. :lol:

If as you say, Chris, there is a chance that the game dynamic will change because of the stab, then I would give it a shot.



Why is "draw whittling" a pointless waste of time. Doesn't a 3 way draw increase your ranking by more than a 4 way draw?


Since, outside of a tournament context, I don't care about rating/ranking, I want to spend my limited Dip time where it will be useful, that is, where I have a chance to solo.
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Re: Endgame Stabs and Risk/Reward Evaluation

Postby DQ » 02 Aug 2018, 21:43

David E. Cohen wrote:
Goatboy76 wrote:
David E. Cohen wrote:If I trust that no one is going to freak out or do something stupid, then draw whittling is a pointless waste of time, and I have in fact threatened and am willing to carry out a threat to throw a solo to someone else rather then let a draw whittler have their way. Once they realize I am serious, the game is usually ended VERY quickly. :lol:

If as you say, Chris, there is a chance that the game dynamic will change because of the stab, then I would give it a shot.



Why is "draw whittling" a pointless waste of time. Doesn't a 3 way draw increase your ranking by more than a 4 way draw?


Since, outside of a tournament context, I don't care about rating/ranking, I want to spend my limited Dip time where it will be useful, that is, where I have a chance to solo.


Finally, an explanation I can accept for you not coming to WDC in DC. ducks
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