How to arrange a 2-way draw

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How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Mr_Blobby » 07 Oct 2015, 17:15

Can I ask someone to advise me on the best technical and strategic way to finish a game in an agreed 2-way draw? I guess the answer may be different depending on how well you trust the other side in the draw. As I see it, there are 34 supply centres and 2 x 17 = 34 so how would you advise a method that can keep both sides honest and stay at 17? Sorry if this sounds a crazy question but what's to stop the other guy grabbing that extra SC at the last minute? The temptation must be very great although I hasten to add that I am not planning on doing this (don't call me a care bear!) but I see the room for a last-minute stab. Has anyone been in this position before?

Thanks, Stephen.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Cardlinger » 07 Oct 2015, 18:03

Hi Steven,

WHSeward posted this link:
http://diplom.org/Zine/S2001M/Ledder/TwoWayDraws.html

It delineates 2 way draw positions but you need to ensure the DMZ is maintained in each case, and as you note there's little/nothing stopping one person grabbing one last SC to get to 18 first.

2 way draws seem to me to be near impossible, if not the most difficult, of diplomacy result scenarios. 3 way draws and solos seem waaaaaaay more common.

Best,
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Mr_Blobby » 07 Oct 2015, 18:14

Thanks for that. It is almost worth inviting a small weaker power to join in :D

I guess that if someone takes the initiative and grabs his 17 SCs with the 18th somewhere in the middle, he can sit back and let his buddy catch up. I know that other players would flame me for not just taking the win and I would be accused of being a Care Bear. Surely though if an ally has stuck with you faithfully beyond 1920 (for example) is there any shame in feeling no desire to stab him? Sure if the guy had been difficult and petulant throughout then maybe but not it has been a very cordial and co-operative relationship.

What do you think? Do you have to be this mercenary?

Stephen.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby geordiebart » 07 Oct 2015, 18:45

104487.

My former game. I was france. I hit my 17 centres and helped england take his. I moved my units to protect my own centres but england never once made a threatening move so wasnt seriously tempted to take the win. It was a long haul game and he was an impeccable ally so my heart wasnt in a stab.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Zosimus » 07 Oct 2015, 20:35

CllrStephen wrote:Thanks for that. It is almost worth inviting a small weaker power to join in :D

I guess that if someone takes the initiative and grabs his 17 SCs with the 18th somewhere in the middle, he can sit back and let his buddy catch up. I know that other players would flame me for not just taking the win and I would be accused of being a Care Bear. Surely though if an ally has stuck with you faithfully beyond 1920 (for example) is there any shame in feeling no desire to stab him? Sure if the guy had been difficult and petulant throughout then maybe but not it has been a very cordial and co-operative relationship.

What do you think? Do you have to be this mercenary?

Stephen.


I think that you completely misunderstand the situation. The final showdown between two care bears doesn't concern me or anyone except for the two care bears. The problem is not that a person wants to share his well-earned solo with a partner. The problem is the anti-social nature of care bearism.

Here's an example. Imagine that you're playing Turkey and you've made good headway against both Russia and Austria. You're at 9 centers (Constantinople, Ankara, Smyrna, Sevastopol, Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Budapest) with good prospects to pick up Moscow, Vienna, and Naples. You notice on the other end of the board that England and France have taken out Germany, and are pushing against Italy and Northern Russia. So you start a conversation with France, and it goes something like this:

T: I see that you and England are allied and doing well. This game looks pretty much done. Why don't we work towards a three-way draw?

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.

T: Well, if you want a two-way draw, I'd be happy to share one with you. In fact, it would be easier for us to set up than a two-way draw with England would.

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.

T: Okay, but surely my proposal should be judged on its own merits. As you can see, I am soon to reach 11 or 12 centers. That's fully one-third of the board. Don't I deserve participation in the win for having done well?

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.

T: Well, why didn't I get the same offer as England did? Maybe I would have gladly accepted. Why didn't I get that message?

F: Well, England and I agreed to go against Germany and when we did so, in spring 1901, we agreed to share a two-way draw.

T: Okay, well, I'll be glad to help you against Italy. Then we can share in a three-way draw, right?

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.

T: Didn't I faithfully write to you at the beginning of the game, and check in with you periodically? Didn't I give you heads up about Italy's moves? Didn't I do what I could to help you and work with you?

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.

T: Well, that completely blows. I mean, this is the moral equivalent of metagaming. Why can't I get a fair shake? I ally with people all the time and keep those alliances long-term. I have a 40 percent draw rate. England has a 20 percent draw rate. One could theoretically argue that I am more likely to draw with you than England is.

F: Actually, I think you should admire us for our loyalty to each other.

T: Well, I don't. I've presented a plan to you. It's a good plan. If you don't like the plan, why don't you present your own plan? If you think my plan has defects, then let me know and I'll fix them. Why can't we work together?

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.
-----------------------
Well, it's obvious that we're getting nowhere with France. Let's go talk to England.

T: England! You're doing really well. We could totally cooperate against Russia. If I attack Moscow, for example, you will easily be able to pick up St. Petersburg. What do you say to the two of us working towards a draw together? We could even include France, your staid ally. What do you say?

E: Sorry, but I agreed with France at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.

T: Okay, but wouldn't it be much easier to set up a draw with me? The stalemate lines already exist so that we would know that no one would be able to cheat and score a solo victory. What do you say?

F: Sorry, but I agreed with England at the beginning of the game to share a two-way draw with him.
-------------------------
Seriously, that kind of treatment just blows. It would be like sitting down to play Monopoly with 5 people and finding out that two of the people are trading their properties between themselves in order to set up monopolies while excluding the other players. Attempts to purchase properties from either or to give better terms than those given by their partner are ignored. Soon you notice that the players aren't charging each other rent. When you demand to know what gives you are told:

"Sorry, but the Hat and I agreed to share a two-way draw at the beginning of the game. We're simply continuing in our strategy to do so, and you should admire us for how loyal we are to each other."

Well, no, as far as I'm concerned they're a cheating pair of prats, and if this behavior isn't against the rules then it damned well should be!
Be more aggressive.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Kra » 07 Oct 2015, 22:59

The 2 way draw is not almost impossible, I have accomplished several here including with some "unlikely" partners such as Austria and Turkey and one in Fog. BUT it requires coordination and trust espescially if not setting formal full stalemate lines. It is very hard and often does end with a three way with a third party - two of my first tries at two ways here ended as three ways when my ally got cold feet and stabbed forcing a three way. It can also end as a Solo for one of the parties, another way my attempts have ended, on the losing side for me. The link is useful. Without formal lines, one can still set up neutral zones with bounces or DMZs to make a grab from the other partner less likely. Also units can be moved far away from controlled secure areas so any incursions can be seen coming and responded to diplomatically or tactically, after all there are other players on the board until the 17/17 divide is achieved. But two countries working in concert for much of the game is a powerful alliance that can forge a relationship so that both parties get the satisfaction of an acheivement that is quite difficult.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Kra » 07 Oct 2015, 23:43

And to Zosimus story which was excellent and quite entertaining dialog as well, banning 2 ways visits the same issues as banning Draws. This is a game of words, will and personality and TIMING. When to trust and when to stab. That nice story could very well have all parties saying Two way to each other as each are thinking solo. In fact been there and done that!
So what are you banning? If two countries actually manage to find kindred spirits or cooperation and coordinate to get to two then they were taking all the risks, along the way of the deal falling apart ..... As long as it was all done with in the game!
Three way trios to game end are just as powerful and easier to pull off and just as much a model for the Monopoly "cheating" scenario. In fact, Monoply can benefit from three way trades too. But charging no rent IS cheating.
I don't know the stats but I am quite confidant solos and three ways and 4 ways are all more frequent than Two ways.
But Z, your written scenario was great. We should share a game sometime!
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Elric Hazard » 08 Oct 2015, 01:03

The link in Cardlingers post is definitive. Unfortunately it doesn't come with maps to easily visualize the lines described. 2 ways can be forced under certain conditions. study it well. I have only come close to this recently as Germany in a Germany/Austria situation with a smart but decimated Italy. Unfortunately Austria went for the solo, because I did not quite have enough units (build spaces occupied much of the time) to convince him it was hopeless. And it wasn't either-- he had a good chance but Italy was cooperative and we got some lucky guesses to hold him to a 3way.

Had Austria been all in from the time of the proposal, the DMZs would have allowed either of us to hold off a grab for 18 (by threatening a 3 way) while we slowly and subtly eliminated Italy.

Note I make no reference to carebearism or loyalty, those are irrelevant. You have to be able to convince the potential partner that either one of you going for solo either must or is at least very likely to result in a 3way. And usually at the same time convincing the 3rd party that you are attempting to arrange a 3way stalemate. They rarely come from a long term alliance and are more likely to result from a late midgame assessment of all the possible outcomes.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby WHSeward » 08 Oct 2015, 01:23

The article in that link is not comprehensive, but it is a good place to start study.
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Re: How to arrange a 2-way draw

Postby Zosimus » 08 Oct 2015, 02:02

Banning two-way draws would be easy. All you have to do is to make Sicily passable and a supply center. Suddenly Italy has a better game, and there are 35 supply centers not 34. No more two-way draws.
Be more aggressive.
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