Second Chance Mafia Day 3

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Re: Second Chance Mafia Day 2

Postby shadowfriend1 » 14 Sep 2017, 06:24

Keirador wrote:Was the "team" thing based on you thinking I was feeding nanook's case, rather than sjg's? Otherwise, I don't get it.

No... it's based on me thinking Nanook's indecisiveness on your case and then progression to voting for you is suspect.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Day 2

Postby Keirador » 14 Sep 2017, 06:37

shadowfriend1 wrote:
Keirador wrote:Was the "team" thing based on you thinking I was feeding nanook's case, rather than sjg's? Otherwise, I don't get it.

No... it's based on me thinking Nanook's indecisiveness on your case and then progression to voting for you is suspect.

OK, fair enough, if you think that amount of busing looks right.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Day 2

Postby NicholasIII » 14 Sep 2017, 07:09

Well what an exchange ! I agree with sf that Keirador seems genuine and he does have a very good defence, and sf aggressiveness and engagement is nice to see, so I am getting a town feel from them

shadowfriend1 wrote:Probably going to vote nanook tomorrow but I need to look at if that read still works without me assuming Keirador is obvscum. Cursorily I think it does, because one of my main issues is that I don't think nanook's read on Keirador is sincere, which is scummy regardless of K's alignment. But I'd want to do a bit more digging on that before voting.

Enough mafia for today though. Also we could use a little bit of input from, you know, the rest of the town.

Well you won't answer soon but could you explain in what ways do you think nanooks reads on keirador is not sincere ?
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Day 2

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 14 Sep 2017, 07:52

Am I missing something here? How is my case not sincere? I see you saying it, but I don't see you showing how it actually is besides saying it is. Show me some evidence, please, and show me how hedging isn't very common for me as town in the first couple days of a game. Otherwise this is misguided at best, and bullshit at worst. I can sort of see where Keirador is coming from here, actually--it could be scummy of course, but I think I could see how townKeirador makes this case too. At least he's tried to provide some evidence. Shadow I don't fully get where she's coming from here, but maybe I'm just missing something?

Shadow, can you consolidate your case against me please? I'm not meaning to be dense here, but I'm confused how you're seeing anything here from me that you haven't seen before.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Day 2

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 14 Sep 2017, 07:55

shadowfriend1 wrote:Probably going to vote nanook tomorrow but I need to look at if that read still works without me assuming Keirador is obvscum. Cursorily I think it does, because one of my main issues is that I don't think nanook's read on Keirador is sincere, which is scummy regardless of K's alignment. But I'd want to do a bit more digging on that before voting.

Enough mafia for today though. Also we could use a little bit of input from, you know, the rest of the town.

Also, please explain to me how the fuck this is different than me waiting to vote Keirador until I looked closer at him. Why is this scummy for me to do but it isn't for you? This seems like a double standard to me.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Day 2

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 14 Sep 2017, 07:59

I do agree with Shadow on one thing here, though. I don't think Keirador looks as scummy any more. Unvote. I'll figure this out tomorrow.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Night 0

Postby sjg11 » 14 Sep 2017, 14:30

shadowfriend1 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:I must confess that this game is utterly confusing me currently. I have two thoughts that are worrying me a lot and which I'm not really sure what to do with.

On the one hand I'm concerned that SF scum has noticed that she can gain town cred for "coming out of the blocks" today (or however nanook worded it) and is using that to pick on town ZZ and Keirador using a narrative that they're excellent players who aren't playing excellently.


Okay, cool. From where did I 'notice I could gain town cred'? What makes you think I'm faking? You do understand you could say this about literally ANY townie behavior. You're calling me out for being the one player trying to solve the game, simply because I'm trying to do so. That's anti-town play: much more productive would be to focus, as you suggest later, on 'actual content'. I don't give a crap if you want to town read me or not, and I by all means encourage you to be critical of my and others' play. But please, make a case if you are going to say that for scumhunting I am scummy. Zoomzip can tell you that I don't take well to that.

SF, I did mention that was a post motivated by confusion and paranoia a couple of times. I DID mention that it was a theory/narrative post not a "here's the evidence and here's who I think is Mafia" post. If I had any evidence that that narrative was true I would be voting for you. At this stage of reading (I'm on Page 37 currently) I have no evidence so I'm not. So you're misunderstanding me. I'm not saying you're scummy for scumhunting I'm saying you're not necessarily town for scumhunting. Subtle difference and I think you misread me here.

As an aside though, in a soporific town I can see scum SF seeing the advantages of really stepping it up from the start of Day Two and zoning in on those who have been a bit flabby so far.

sjg11 wrote:SF, I have a couple of questions about your process here:
1. You're excusing Nick on the basis that he's a noob/busy/whatever. I'm trying to figure out why the "they're just a bit busy" reasoning doesn't apply to Keirador and ZZ. Like, does the fact they're veterans mean they're not allowed to be busy or something? I'm not sure how you're differentiating here and some clarification would be nice.


I'm not under the impression that Nick is particularly busy; I just think he's not particularly sure of how to scumhunt or that he's supposed to. I'll point out in the signup thread he thought the commitment would be 15 minutes per day, so I don't expect huge activity. On quite a few occasions I've tried to encourage him to pursue lines of inquiry but he hasn't really done so. I mean, yeah, now that I think about it he's playing like newbie scum, but I could also see him as newbie town. It's hard to tell the difference in a player I'm unfamiliar with. So I don't think that's our best lynch at sort-of-MYLO.

As for ZZ, I do think he's busy and if you notice I am not voting for him. It doesn't mean he's not scum, but I think a, what, 4 day absence in RL and not game related.

Sorry you're misunderstanding me here. You've spent a fair bit of time zoning in on the productivity levels of Keirador and ZZ, going so far as to highlight the number of posts they've made so far. Why is their productivity level necessarily alignment indicative and not just RL busyness indicative.

2. You also initially thought SW's scumslip is a scumslip. Was it unreasonable that Keirador would think that too? Do Keirador's different mechanical views impact on your thought process here?


I find it really hard to believe that Keirador couldn't possibly understand the answer SW provided enough to think it was a reasonable explanation - and remember, it was the only thing that had him voting SW over Nick.

Ok, Keirador states that he didn't think the NK the lynched guy plan was as obvious as SW was making it out to be. Have you factored this mechanical disagreement into your point of view at all?
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Night 0

Postby sjg11 » 14 Sep 2017, 14:36

Zoomzip wrote: Nook looked eager to push what he thought was an easy vote, and that makes me nervous.

Let's put Keirador on a few votes. The "I find this fairly offensive" feels odd. Like, when I call him out for lurking in other games, he gives me a bemused smile and patient head pat. Taking offense to being called out is... not what I got from him in that other game.

1. Yeah nook continues to make me worry, I could easily vote there today. A couple of poor votes now from him.
2. As for your Keirador vote... honestly I don't find the reasoning that convincing. Like tonal discrepancies are impacted by so many little things that we don't realise are affecting our tone. Like I can laugh at a joke one day and snap at the person who made it the next if you follow me? Depends on my mood to an extent. So yeah people, tonally, react in different ways to the same situation for one of a thousand reasons.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Night 0

Postby sjg11 » 14 Sep 2017, 14:42

Zoomzip wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:
Zoomzip wrote:Hmmmm... Actually, Keir's flinch at the SW vote seems like the right town move, and then I can see him get led back.

Why couldn't scum Keirador have posted that?


That's... not the point. Scum Keirador COULD have posted that, but WOULD he have done so?

Again, like -- I know I got crap for this in Men at Arms, but there is a tonal thing going on. I got it wrong on Chuck, who I didn't think would play around with Conq the way he did, but I also got it right on others -- there are moves you don't need to make as scum, points you don't go for.

Like, assume suddenly people go "Yeah, let's kill Nick3" -- And this is scum Keir we are presupposing right? That would make Nick3 town most likely in this scenario. So Scum Keir leads a last minute switch from Starwatcher to Nick3 -- why? We kill a new player, and that dissatisfaction goes to Keir, right?

So... balance of probabilities -- it could be a scum Keir, but is that post more likely to be scum or town?

Town, right?

I get what you're saying on this one.

My concern is this:
Keirador may not actually WANT things to switch to Nick. He may be moving off for show to then swing round onto the original SW voters the next day. If they're both town it's a low-risk move for him. Either SW gets lynched and Keirador can swing things that way and, even if Nick gets lynched, there's plenty of room for manouevre the next day. Hell scum K could even turn into SW's biggest defender, allow him to burn and then claim the resulting town cred the next day as a result. A move where the bad result isn't that bad but the good result is pretty good makes sense.

I get that it makes more sense from a town perspective though. I think it's more natural from town K.
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Re: Second Chance Mafia Night 0

Postby sjg11 » 14 Sep 2017, 14:48

shadowfriend1 wrote:
Now, prove to me that it's possible that I'm still scum. Those arguments are the ones I would make back at you with this random 'towntell' on Keirador that just isn't. I'm not saying the post you arbitrarily quoted is the one that needs to prove him guilty, I'm saying that on its own it doesn't prove he's innocent.

But we're not talking about "proof" here shadow. We're talking about a smaller moment in the context of a townlean not a bigger moment which makes Keirador the Unlynchable One for the remainder of the game.
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